Burlington, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

045
FXUS62 KRAH 241116
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
616 AM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend across and offshore the South Atlantic
states ahead of a cold front that will move across the Carolinas on
Tuesday. Pacific high pressure will follow and build across and
offshore the Middle Atlantic Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 340 AM Sunday...

In the mid/upper-levels, a low amplitude ridge will progress from
the mid MS Valley to the Middle Atlantic. Continued rising heights,
and gradually weakening subsidence, will result over cntl NC.

At the surface, high pressure will extend across the South Atlantic
states and swrn N. Atlantic and direct a moderating, swly flow
throughout the Carolinas today, followed by calm to light swly
stirring tonight.

After a sunny day, thin cirrus now upstream from the TN to mid MS
Valley will arrive from the west and pass overhead tonight. Forecast
high temperatures in the 60s will be about 5 F above average, while
good radiational cooling tonight will support near average low
temperatures in the 30s, to around 40 from FAY to CTZ to GSB.
Another Frost Advisory may consequently be needed for those counties
where the growing season has not yet ended, except for Cumberland,
Sampson, and Wayne Co.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Sunday...

Ridging aloft will progress offshore the Middle Atlantic on Monday,
downstream of a phased, negatively-tilted trough that will pivot
across the Great Lakes and OH Valley through 12Z Tue. Weakly rising
mid-level heights (+10 to 30 meters) over cntl NC on Mon will
modestly fall (-40 to 80 meters) Mon night.

At the surface, high pressure will continue to extend from the swrn
N. Atlantic wwd and across the South Atlantic states, with continued
swly flow across the Carolinas, while a cold front will move ewd and
reach the srn Appalachians by 12Z Tue.

Initially thin cirrus in wswly flow on Mon will thicken and lower
from the west Mon night, as lift ahead of the aforementioned trough
increases across cntl NC. In addition to those considerable mid-high
clouds, warm and moist advection in the low-levels will favor
increasingly saturated profiles in the lowest couple of thousand ft,
particularly across the Piedmont by Tue morning, where/when the
multi-layered moist layers will support a slight chance of patchy
light rain. Temperatures ahead of the approaching cold front will
trend increasingly above average, with highs in the mid 60s to lwr
70s and lows in the upr 40s to lwr 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 400 AM Sunday...

A cold front will move through central NC on Tuesday morning as a
potent mid-level trough pivots from the Great Lakes into New
England. The front continues to look fairly moisture-starved with
the best upper forcing well to our north. The ECMWF is still the
only deterministic model really showing measurable precipitation,
though it does get support from a good number of its ensemble
members. So maintain slight chance POPs (and a chance of sprinkles)
across the area from 12z to 18z Tuesday. Regardless, amounts do not
look high, only around a tenth of an inch or less even on the
ECMWF/EPS. Continued to lean forecast highs toward the cooler side
of guidance, ranging from lower-60s far NW to around 70 far SE, due
to the cloud cover and sprinkles combined with frontal passage early
in the day. Surface high pressure approaching from the OH Valley
should bring decent radiational cooling conditions Tuesday night, so
forecast lows are mostly mid-to-upper-30s with lower-30s possible in
outlying areas of the Piedmont.

The low-level flow will quickly turn S/SE on Wednesday as the
surface high moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast. So high temperatures,
while cooler than Tuesday, will still be slightly above normal, in
the upper-50s to mid-60s. Expect increasing clouds from the west as
a southern stream shortwave moves from the Central Plains into the
TN Valley on Thursday and Thursday night. Both the GFS and ECMWF
also depict a surface low riding along the front, which will lift
back north as a warm front. This unfortunately likely means a wet
and chilly Thanksgiving is on tap for the area. However, exact
details are still uncertain as the ECMWF depicts a more wound-up
area of low pressure moving well to our north and west, while the
GFS shows multiple waves of low pressure moving directly over the
Carolinas on Thursday and Thursday night. A farther north track like
the ECMWF/EPS would result in less widespread rain but more of a
convective threat that ends Thursday evening, while the GFS/GEFS
produce heavier rain but less instability (especially north) with
rain continuing into early Friday. As a result, the temperature
forecast is also highly uncertain, so for now take a middle of the
ground approach with forecast highs ranging from upper-50s far NW to
upper-60s far SE.

Rain will come to an end from west to east on Friday morning and
early afternoon at the latest. With strong CAA behind the departing
deepening low, forecast highs are only in the upper-40s to mid-50s
on Friday and mid-to-upper-40s on Saturday. Forecast lows are only
in the mid-20s to 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 615 AM Sunday...

High pressure will build across and offshore the Southeast and favor
VFR (mainly clear) conditions and generally 5-15kt swly surface
winds over cntl NC today and calm to 5 kt ones tonight. Patchy
mist/fog will be possible Mon morning, with probability of
occurrence at any given TAF site around 10 percent.

Outlook: There will be a better chance of a short-lived IFR-MVFR
ceiling Tue morning, around 30-40 percent and maximized over the
Piedmont, as moisture briefly increases along and ahead of a passing
cold front. Patchy light rain and marginal low-level wind shear may
also result ahead of that front Tue morning. Rain and flight
restrictions are likely with the passage of a much stronger frontal
system on Thursday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ011-026>028-
042-043-077-078-086-088-089.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...MWS