Utica, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

555
FXUS61 KBGM 040635
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
135 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong clipper system will bring increasing chances for
accumulating snow Wednesday afternoon and Thursday, with colder
air, gusty winds, and more lake effect snow developing in its
wake.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1 AM Update:
Temperatures have continued to crater in areas with clear skies.
Satellite imagery shows increasing cloud cover across the Finger
Lakes, which pretty much demarks the leading edge of low level
warm advection.

ITH went from 12 degrees and calm at 1135 PM to 20 degrees as
of 1 AM as the cloud cover overspread the area, and winds picked
up from the SSE. Made some tweaks to the grids to further drop
temperatures a degree or two in the mostly clear eastern half of
the CWA over the next couple hours, while increasing temps from
west to east through dawn.


937 PM Update:
Temperatures have fallen quite a bit where skies are clear with
Ithaca down to 13 degrees at the latest observation (9pm).
Current values where temperatures have tanked may fall another
degree or two before rising toward sunrise as weak southwesterly
flow kicks in. For locations with some clouds temperatures
should still fall close to a normal rate overnight.


Given the amount of mixing this afternoon, dewpoints lowered
quite a bit. The RGEM appears to currently have the best handle
of dewpoints. Given the clouds temperatures were also raised
slightly through the night.

320 PM Update...

Leftover lake effect snow showers across Central NY and NE PA
will continue through this evening. Localized intense snow
showers may bring visibilities down to half mile, or less at
times, briefly if it moves over an area.

A strong low pressure system centered over the Great Lakes will
begin to approach the Northeast Wednesday. Ahead of this system
and the main front, gusty southerly wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph
can be expected for higher elevations across Central NY and NE
PA, as well as across the Finger Lakes region and the hills in
Cayuga- Onondaga- Madison counties. Snow showers can also be
expected to move through Central NY during the daytime hours.
Orographic lift will all play a critical role with increased
snowfall development in Northern Oneida County starting
Wednesday, and intensifying heading into Wednesday evening and
continue into the short term period. Expected snowfall for
Northern Oneida County through Wednesday is 4 to 7 inches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
345 PM Update...

With the strong low pressure system continuing it`s approach,
gusty southerly winds will shift westerly as the main front
moves through the area Thursday morning. This will increase
winds, with wind gusts expected to be up to 35 to 45 mph by
Thursday morning across mainly for western portions of Central
NY, the Mohawk Valley, and NE PA. With snow showers picking back
up early Thursday morning, as well as some pockets of small
CAPE, potential for snow squalls is possible in the early
morning hours of Thursday, mainly for areas west of I-81.
Confidence is low to moderate, since there isn`t a strong signal
for snow squall development, but will falling snow and gusty
winds, visibilities could drop to half mile or less at times
with any gusty snow shower that moves through.

As the main passage of the front Thursday morning, lake
enhancement downwind of Lake Erie will bring lake effect
snowfall in Northern Oneida County. Additional snowfall, from
Wednesday night through Thursday night, is expected to be 6 to
9 inches. For northern portions of Central NY, 2 to 5 inches can
be expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1200 PM Update:

With a northwesterly flow and 850mb temperatures around -14C,
lake effect snow showers are expected on Friday, particularly
across Central NY. Then as the wind direction shifts to more of
a westerly direction, these lake effect snow showers are
expected to be more concentrated towards areas along and north
of the NY Thruway corridor by Friday night into Saturday. A weak
clipper system may bring some additional snow showers to the
area on Saturday, but it is possible that this could end up
being mainly north of our area.

Then weak ridging may finally bring mainly dry conditions to
the area on Sunday, along with warmer temperatures. An area of
low pressure passing by to our west then may bring some
additional precipitation by the Monday/Tuesday timeframe. At
this time, temperatures appear to be warm enough for the form of
precipitation to be mainly rain from this early week system.

Temperature-wise, continued below normal temperatures are
expected for Friday and Saturday (highs mainly in the mid 20s to
lower 30s), before a warm-up occurs starting on Sunday.
Temperatures on Sunday are expected to be near-normal (highs in
the mid 30s to lower 40s), before above normal temperatures are
anticipated for Monday and Tuesday with highs mainly in the 40s
and perhaps near 50 degrees in some of the valleys on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low level warm advection will bring some increasing cloud cover
in from the west overnight, though ceilings will remain VFR.

One exception is RME, where near-surface winds are from the
south, resulting in upslope conditions south of the Tug Hill
Plateau, and 925 mb winds are headed straight down Oneida Lake.
IFR ceilings are in place, and will likely hang on until low
level winds lose their lake trajectory, around 08-09Z. There`s a
chance though that the upslope flow alone will keep low
ceilings in place, and this will be watched closely.

Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through early afternoon
across the area, as southerly flow increases. A few gusts over
20 knots are possible. A weak shortwave trough may kick off a
band of snow showers or flurries in the afternoon, which will
lift from SW to NE. Added some 2-3 hour TEMPO groups for minor
restrictions across the NY terminals, slightly worse at SYR and
RME.

Snow showers will increase in coverage late in the afternoon and
this evening across north-central NY. With increasing southerly
flow, orographic effects will play a major role, and snow
showers will be most prevalent north of the Lake Plain and
Mohawk Valley, and along the northern half of the Allegheny
Plateau. Downsloping may keep steadier snow just north of SYR
until after 22-24Z. Further south, ITH may see light snow with
MVFR conditions before sunset, and it may take until early
evening for BGM and ELM. With the orographic influence,
confidence in impacts from snow are highest at SYR and RME, and
become progressively lower further south.

Some blowing snow may impact SYR and RME in the evening and
overnight hours.

Outlook...

Late Wednesday Night...Restrictions likely with snow showers,
worst in north-central NY.

Thursday...Scattered snow showers and squalls are possible in
the morning as gusty west winds develop behind a cold front.
Snow showers may impact areas as far south as AVP, though
conditions will generally be worse further north. The snow
showers will transition to lake effect snow bands by afternoon.
Gusty westerly winds at 25-35 kts, and a few higher gusts will
be possible at times. This will result in blowing snow in areas
with snow accumulation.

Friday...Scattered lake effect snow showers possible at the
Central NY terminals, along with occasional restrictions.

Saturday...Some additional lake effect snow showers with
occasional restrictions possible in Central NY.

Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Winter Storm Watch from this afternoon through late Thursday
     night for NYZ009-018-036-037-044>046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL/MPH/MWG
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...JTC/MPH