Tonawanda Town, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

204
FXUS61 KBUF 071449
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1049 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring mostly sunny and seasonable weather today.
Unsettled weather makes a return late Sunday afternoon as low
pressure makes its way across the Ohio Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
While most areas will see dry weather this afternoon, a few hi-res
models do show a shower or two fire up across the higher terrain of
the Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and North Country. Have low chance
PoPs to cover this potential. Highs today will be found in the 70s
to near 80F in spots.

High pressure passing to our north will maintain dry weather
Saturday night. Lows will be in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Drier weather from earlier in the weekend will give way to showers
moving into SW NY starting late Sunday morning, expanding northeast
across much of the area through Sunday night, especially south
of Lake Ontario. This will occur as a weakening shortwave
trough/warm front crosses into the region and a weakening sfc
low passes nearby. Guidance is still split on rain potential for
Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Guidance on the drier
side for this timeframe push a weaker trough/front through and
the sfc low farther south of the area. Guidance that is
continuing the increased shower potential brings a slightly
stronger trough/warm front through and and the sfc low either
over or closer to the WNY area. It does seem that guidance is
trending a bit drier overall for showers Sunday afternoon into
Monday morning.

A cold front will track into WNY on Monday, bringing showers into
the area, but again, guidance is uncertain on timing of the front.
There is about a 12 hour spread between the slowest and quickest
guidance for the track of the front. Potential for showers though
with embedded thunderstorms will increase for Monday ahead of the
cold front with the warm sector of a large occluded system over the
region. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be during
the afternoon and evening across the area with daytime heating and
the frontal passage.

Temperatures for the period will remain near to a few degrees above
normal for most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A large trough will remain in place over the Great Lakes and the
Northeast through Wednesday, continuing the potential for showers,
especially in the afternoon with daytime heating through Tuesday,
with some lingering showers for eastern areas on Wednesday.

Drier weather will return for late Wednesday into Thursday as
heights increase within a zonal flow and with a sfc high over the
southeast U.S.

A trough crossing the eastern half of the CONUS will bring another
chance for showers on Friday.

Temperatures will cool for Tuesday and Wednesday to near to a few
degrees below normal for most areas. Warm air advection starting
late Wednesday will bring temperatures back to the mid 70s to mid
80s for Thursday and Friday for most areas.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions through the TAF issuance period with light winds.

There is a chance for some patchy fog after 06Z tonight, but
confidence is low at any particular terminal right now, so left out
of the TAFs for now.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR deteriorating to MVFR with showers likely later in the
afternoon.

Monday through Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely and a chance
of thunderstorms.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few showers.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure build into the eastern Great Lakes will maintain light
winds and minimal wave action through tonight. Easterly flow will
bring modest chop on the western end of Lake Ontario by Sunday
afternoon. Winds will then turn southwesterly Monday and
Tuesday...though at this point conditions appear to remain well
below advisory levels.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ001>008-
     010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/TMA
NEAR TERM...AR/TMA
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...AR/TMA
MARINE...AR