Syracuse, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

138
FXUS61 KBGM 111507
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1107 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track up the east coast today and Saturday
bringing a mix of rain and snow. High pressure builds in behind
it early next week. However, several cold frontal boundaries and
additional chances for showers move in for the middle of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

1100 AM Update

Made adjustments to the near term forecast based heavily on the
latest CAMs such as the 12z HRRR, 3km NAM and RAP. This gave
better detail to when the steady rain and snow will move in
overnight, through the day on Saturday. Did increase QPF, PoPs
and higher elevation snow amounts over the eastern half to third
of the forecast area...as again guidance is coming into better
agreement on a band of steady precipitation on the NW side of
the closed low. Current forecast now shows the potential for 2-5
inches of dense, wet snow over higher elevations (> 1900 feet)
in Delaware, Sullivan, Pike and Wayne counties by the time the
precipitation winds down Saturday afternoon. Will continue to
evaluate the latest guidance this afternoon and see if any
winter weather headlines may be needed.

Previous Discussion Below

With the sunrise update, added in some additional showers to the
forecast across the Finger Lakes with the decaying low pressure
near Buffalo currently. Forecast discussion below on track.


A broad area of low pressure across the region will continue to
result in cloudy and showery conditions today. As a result, high
temperatures will likely only get into the low and mid 40`s. For
most of the day modeling depicts more in the way of isolated to
scattered showers with light QPF.

Reformation of the low tonight along the coast should result in
an area of more widespread precipitation to develop that pivots
into NE PA and portions of the Western Catskills overnight.
Temperatures in the highest elevations look to cool enough for a
period of snow while lower elevations see mainly rain. Lows
should end up in the low to mid 30`s so a marginal setup for
snow but a couple of degrees either direction could create a
slight shift in the forecast. Grassy totals of a coating to
locally 3 inches are possible in the highest elevations by
Saturday afternoon (a wet snow with ratios 4-7:1). Precipitation
looks to be more showery further north and west. With less
precipitation for the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes highs could
reach the mid and upper 40`s with cooler values where
precipitation is steadier. Total QPF looks to be around or under
half an inch.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
310 AM Update...

Upper level low placed south of our region slowly moves east
Saturday night. Wrap around moisture could allow showers to linger
overnight as the system exits. Temperatures at 850 mb will
range -1 to -2 degrees C overnight with surface temperatures
falling into the low to mid 30s. These borderline temperatures
could allow a few wet snowflakes to mix in with showers
especially over the Western Catskills. Otherwise showers will be
tapering off Saturday night as drier air pushes in. Upper level
ridge along with a surface high builds into the region on
Sunday. As a result drier conditions return with slightly warmer
temperatures expected. Highs will climb into the upper 40s to
mid 50s. Dry conditions are expected to continue Sunday night
with overnight temperatures remaining cool under northwest flow.
Lows will again range in the low to mid 30s across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
310 AM Update...

As the ridge progresses east Monday morning a quick moving shortwave
moves along with it. This could bring a chance of rain showers to
the western portion of our region, although confidence is low.
Otherwise mostly dry conditions will prevail with southwest winds
and warmer spring like temperatures expected. Highs will climb into
the upper 50s to mid 60s by the afternoon. A better chance for rain
showers arrives Monday night into Tuesday as the ridge exits east
and a cold front approaches from the west. Model guidance continues
to show slight timing differences in the fronts arrival. A secondary
cold front follows shortly after on Tuesday as an upper trough digs
into the east coast. This will allow showers to continue Tuesday
with much cooler air filtering in behind the front. Precipitation
type will start off as rain and will transition to a mix of rain and
snow as temperatures fall. Northwest flow returns with 850 mb
temperatures ranging -7 to -10 degrees C Tuesday night into
Wednesday triggering a lake response with additional showers
expected. A break from showers is expected on Thursday as a brief
ridge builds in along with high pressure.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR restrictions for most sites at the start of the TAF period.
Data indicates some lowering of restrictions today while the
normal trend would be for the restrictions to lift slightly. So
confidence is not ideal but general MVFR restrictions from
clouds and rain showers should be present at all terminals for
most of the day. More widespread rain and snow looks to move
into all terminals but KSYR with KBGM,KITH and KELM on the
western edge. This looks to result in lower conditions to IFR by
early evening. General IFR through tonight.



Outlook...

Friday overnight through Saturday...Rain and snow showers and
associated restrictions expected.

Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday...Scattered rain showers may bring occasional
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MJM/MWG
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...MWG