Schenectady, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

935
FXUS61 KALY 111418
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1018 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry weather is expected through this afternoon under a
mostly cloudy sky. Low pressure will approach from the mid
Atlantic Coast bringing a mixture of rain and snow tonight
through Saturday morning with the greatest accumulations over
the higher terrain south and east of Albany, as below normal
temperatures continue. Fair and dry weather returns Saturday
night into Sunday with temperatures moderating to seasonable
levels to close the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...As of 1015 AM EDT, most of the precipitation from
earlier this morning has tapered off and mainly dry weather is
expected for the remainder of the day. The exception could be
for some light rain showers across the mid-Hudson Valley into
Litchfield County, CT as a low pressure system, organizing over
the Carolinas, sends moisture northward, as well as across
Herkimer County with a lingering disturbance over western New
York (though most of this precipitation should stay to the
west). PoPs were adjusted to match ongoing trends. Otherwise,
mostly cloudy conditions are expected with highs reaching the
40s with some upper 30s across higher elevations. Thank you to
everyone who send snowfall reports this morning! Snowfall
amounts from last night/early this morning generally ranged from
less than 1 inch in the valleys to 1-2 inches in the higher
elevations.

Previous Discussion:
It will be mostly cloudy and cool in the late morning through
the afternoon, as attention shifts to developing low pressure
over the Piedmont Region into the Mid Atlantic states, as short-
wave energy rounds the base of the mid and upper level trough
east of the MS River Valley. This lull in the pcpn will last
most of the afternoon. Clouds will dominate south of I-90 with
perhaps some breaks over the northern most zones. It will be
cool with clouds and the east/southeast onshore flow. We did
introduce some slight or low chance PoPs for the western most
zones (western Dacks, western Mohawk Valley and eastern
Catskills) in the late afternoon before sunset with the residual
inverted trough over w-central NY and PA. Highs today were
lowered a few degrees below the NBM with mid and upper 40s in
the valleys and over the hills with mid 30s to lower 40s over
the mtns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- Medium to high chance (30-60%) of at least 2 inches of snow
  across the eastern Catskills, Berkshires, Litchfield Hills of
  CT and the southern Greens, VT late tonight through Sat.

- Winter Weather Advisories issued midnight tonight to 2 pm Sat
  for the Berkshires, and eastern Catskills of western Greene
  and Ulster Counties.

- Medium to high confidence temps moderate closer to seasonable
  levels to close the weekend.

Discussion:

Impressive mid and upper level trough continues over the east
Coast with low pressure moving from the Mid Atlantic corridor to
near the Delmarva Region by 06Z/SAT. A region of upper level
diffluence set up over NY and New England. The sfc low
strengthens near the left front quad of a mid and upper level
jet streak. Atlantic moisture is tapped ahead of the wave with
pcpn building back in from south to north gradually prior to
midnight south of I-90.The slower progression is noted on the
HREFS/3-km HRRR/NAMnest/ARW-WRF. The h850-700 FGEN increases in
the northwest quadrant of the storm especially southeast of the
Capital Region, northern Catskills and southern VT. Strong
upward vertical coupled with dynamical cooling will allow
periods of rain and snow to blossom south of the Capital Region
initially. The higher terrain will have the best chance for snow
early on, especially above 1000 ft. We were concerned about the
heavy wet snow potential highlighted in the CAMs with Snow to
Liquid Ratios (SLRs) of 6-8:1. SLRs may lower closer to 3:5-1
in the valleys. Total QPF sharply drops off further north and
west during the day with one to two tenths over the northwest
zones and as much as a half to three quarters of an inch over
the southeast extreme. Due to wet bulb cooling lows drop off
into the upper 20s to mid 30s Fri night/Sat morning.

Heavy wet snow (pcpn snow rates 0.5 to as high as 1"/hr)
continue through daybreak especially along the southern VT,
Capital District, northern Catskills corridor. The potential was
greatest for 2-6" over the eastern Catskills of western Greene
and western Ulster Counties for a Winter Wx Advisory due to the
strong forcing and east/southeast flow orographic enhancement.
1-2" may occur on the grassy surface in the mid Hudson Valley
into the Capital Region. The Berkshires (criteria is 3") looks
good for at least 2-4", and an Advisory was raised until 2 pm
with some sleet maybe mixing in. NW CT is tricky and we have
1-3" over the Litchfield Hills and 1-2" in the valley. Similar
total for the Taconics. Southern VT we were less confident for
an advisory yet, and have 2-4" with some high peak totals of 4"
or so. Some sleet or spotty freezing rain may mix in. WPC WWD
guidance removed all the ice, most the guidance shows isothermal
soundings or some sleet moving in late Sat. Overall, Advisories
in place for the eastern Catskills and Berkshires and we will
monitor for any additions later today. Location north and west
of Albany may only get a slushy coating to an inch with the
Helderbergs and the Schoharie Valley maybe getting 1-4".

The pcpn lightens in the afternoon for some light
rain/snow/sleet in the mid and upper deformation zone. As temps
warm on Sat pm, rain/snow mix will change back to rain in lower
elevations with a light rain/snow mix in the mountains with
maybe pockets of sleet. Max temps will be 10-15 degrees below
normal with 30s to around 40F over western New England and the
southern Dacks/eastern Catskills with 40-45F readings in the
valleys.

Saturday night the trend continue for the rain/snow or a brief
sleet/freezing rain to end early on. Mostly cloudy and cold
conditions continue with the coastal wave moving east of the
Gulf of Maine. Some ridging will attempt to build in from
Midwest/Great Lakes Region. Lows will range from the upper 20s
to around 30F over the mtns to lower/mid 30s in the valleys.

Low and mid level ridging builds in from the west, as a sfc
anticyclone ridges in from the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes Region
over NY and New England. Temps rise close to seasonal levels
with partly/mostly sunny skies. Highs will be in the mid 50s in
the lower elevations and mid 40s to lower 50s over the hills and
mtns. Fair and dry weather continues Sun night with lows in the
upper 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message:

- Seasonably mild Monday and Tuesday before a strong cold front
Tuesday night ushers in below normal temperatures, blustery winds,
and additional rain and higher elevation snow showers for Wednesday.

Discussion:

We begin the long term on Monday when broad upper level ridging and
subsidence expands across the Northeast supporting dry conditions.
As the upper level ridge axis slides to our east, southwest flow
aloft will promote warm air advection ahead of an approaching warm
nose. Thus, we finally will have a break from the string of below
normal temperatures on Monday as we trend back seasonable
temperatures for mid-April. Chances for rain, however, return by
Monday night as a compact/mature closed low in southern Ontario
heads eastward dragging its attendant occluded boundary and triple
point through the Northeast. The mild air mass ahead of the forcing
will support mainly rain as the p-type Monday night. Showers
diminish in coverage by Tuesday morning but as the closed low tracks
eastward, its trough axis swings through the Northeast sending a
sharp cold front through our area. Not only will this send a surge
of cold air advection back into the region (850hPa isotherms nearly
2 standard deviations below normal per the NAEFS) but gusty
northwest flow and moist/cyclonic flow aloft will also support
additional rain and even snow showers for the higher terrain
including lake enhanced and upslope snow showers across the southern
Adirondacks and southern Greens. Probabilistic guidance shows 50 to
70% chance for west-northwest wind gusts to exceed 30mph with the
highest values across the Mohawk Valley, Capital District into
western MA. Temperatures struggling to rise out of the 40s combined
with blustery winds will make it feel quite chilly on Wednesday. In
fact, probabilistic guidance indicates under 20% chance for highs to
exceed 50F, except in the mid-Hudson Valley where values range 30-
50%.

Rain and higher elevation snow showers diminish Wed night as upper
level troughing exits into the Canadian Maritime and shortwave
ridging builds in. Winds weaken Wed night but with the chilly air
mass still in place, confidence is growing for temperatures to fall
near or slight below freezing with the highest confidence in higher
terrain areas. Dry conditions return on Thursday with temperatures
trending milder and returning back to seasonable levels.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12 UTC/Saturday...Drizzle and light rain/snow mix
exiting the terminals early this morning with precip ending by
12 - 15 UTC. Low level moisture will remain in place through the
day so mainly expecting MVFR or low end VFR cigs the rest of the
day at all sites except POU where VFR cigs should persist.

Ceilings trend downwards tonight by and shortly after Midnight
at all terminals as an area of precipitation tracks from the
mid-Atlantic northward. Precip initially arrives as rain at POU
by 03 - 05 UTC but as it intensifies, temperatures cool enough
to support a transition to wet snow by 08 - 11 UTC with snow
turning steady/moderate resulting in IFR cigs/vis. The
precipitation shield advances northward reaching PSF by 05 - 08
UTC as snow while it arrives as rain at ALB by 08 - 11 UTC
briefly before precip turns steady enough to transition to wet
snow. As snow becomes moderate in the 09 - 12 UTC period, IFR
vis and cigs are likely. GFL looks to remain mainly north of the
precipitation shield through the end of the TAF period but
should still see cigs trend to MVFR.

East to southeast winds range 5-9kts with gusts up to 15kts
through 00 UTC tonight. Then, winds shift to the northeast
tonight especially at PSF and POU and remain sustained 5-9kts
with gusts up to 18kts.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 2 PM EDT
     Saturday for NYZ058-063.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 2 PM EDT
     Saturday for MAZ001-025.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Rathbun/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...Speciale