Schenectady, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

601
FXUS61 KALY 201052
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
652 AM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air, breezy conditions and cooler temperatures will be found
across the region today. A warm front will arrive late tonight and
Saturday, bringing warming temperatures and increasing shower and
storm chances through Saturday night. Dangerously hot temperatures
and humidity arrives Sunday, with an early season heat wave
impacting the region through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- Breezy with gusts around 45-50 MPH at times this morning across
  the higher terrain

- Cooler temperatures with a low threat of rain showers overnight

Discussion:

Early morning surface analysis depicted a cold front stretching
across northern New England into the eastern Mid Atlantic, with a
surface low across southern Quebec. Skies across eastern NY and
western New England were partly to mostly cloudy with low stratus as
temperatures ranged from the low 60s to near 70.

Heading through the morning, it will become quite breezy for most
with the surface pressure gradient tightening behind the departing
surface low and cold front. The highest gusts will be found mainly
in the higher terrain of the ADKs, southern Greens and Berkshires
where a wind advisory has been issued through midday after
collaboration with nearby offices. A brief period of wind gusts
around 45-50 MPH will be possible during this time. With fully-
leaved trees and fairly wet soils, some downed trees or limbs are
possible. Gusts will subside by the afternoon, but will remain
breezy through the evening.

It will be a dry day for much of the region, though increasing
chances of rain showers will be seen beginning this evening as a
warm front approaches from the southwest. PM highs today will climb
into the upper 60s (terrain) to low 80s (valleys), with lows tonight
falling into the low 50s (terrain) to low 60s (valleys).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- Heat and humidity build back across the region through the weekend

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening and
  overnight, some of which could be severe

Discussion:

Low chances of rain showers and even thunderstorms will persist
through daytime Saturday as the warm front lifts north across the
region, though most should see dry conditions. With the warm front
will come a return of heat and humidity beginning Saturday with PM
highs progged to climb into mid to upper 70s (terrain) to mid 80s
(valleys).

For Saturday, continue to keep on eye on potential for several ridge
riding MCSs to impact the area. The first one may arrive Saturday
morning to midday across the west, but models are generally in
agreement of this complex decaying as it tracks into the region.
Another complex looks to track across Ontario during the afternoon,
with potential for it to move into portions of the region overnight.
The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the severe risk to a Level
2 (slight) for the western ADKs and Mohawk Valley, with a Level 1
(marginal) risk to the east. There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty and low confidence in how this threat will evolve, so
encourage those with interests to continue monitoring the latest
forecasts.

Any remaining showers/storms associated with the MCS should exit the
region Sunday morning with dry conditions for the remainder of the
day. It will be hot and humid with 925-850 hPa temps climbing to
around 20 C with the building ridge, which should allow afternoon
highs to easily climb into the 80s to low 90s (mainly in river
valleys south of the Capital District). Dewpoints rebounding into
the 60s/low 70s will push peak heat indices around 90-100 degrees
during the afternoon, which will likely needed to be covered by heat
advisories in later shifts. There will not be much relief during
the nighttime as lows Sunday night only fall into the upper 60s to
low 70s. This is only the beginning of this heatwave, with more
details for the beginning of the work week in the long term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:

- The first heat wave of the Summer Season will continue into the
middle of next week with dangerous levels of heat and humidity
expected, especially Monday and Tuesday.

- Mean heat index values, or feel-like temperatures, Monday range
from the upper 80s to nearly 110 degrees. Tuesday`s heat indices
will be a few degrees "cooler" but 80s to mid 100s are still likely.

-  Heat Advisories and possibly Extreme Heat Warnings will be needed
in the near future. Vulnerable populations such as newborn babies
and young children, pregnant women, the elderly, and those with
terminal or chronic illness will be highly susceptible to heat-
related illness if proper precautions are not taken to mitigate
such conditions.

Discussion:

Dangerously high levels of heat and humidity continue into the
middle of next week as the first heat wave of the summer season
continues. Monday will see the highest heat index values courtesy of
the amplification and slight northeastward shift of the responsible
anticyclone, allowing 850 mb temperatures to rise to +21C to nearly
+23C regionwide. This will translate to surface high temperatures
spanning the upper 80s to low 90s across higher terrain areas and
mid 90s to low 100s (lower Mid-Hudson Valley) in the valleys.
Westerly winds about the northern periphery of the high nosing into
our area could even lead to locally higher temperatures Monday in
the Hudson Valley due to downsloping off the Eastern Catskills and
Helderbergs. And, with dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s, heat
indices will range from around 90 to 110. Heights aloft abate
slightly Tuesday as a weak wave rides atop to ridge, helping to
bring highs down by a few degrees, but values will still reach the
mid 80s to upper 90s and isolated pockets of low 100s in the lower
Mid-Hudson Valley with heat indices in the upper 80s to around 108.
As a result of the passing disturbance, a few showers or
thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon, primarily north of
Albany.

The anticyclone remains dominant through Wednesday, though heights
will continue to slacken and flow will become more zonal aloft as it
sinks farther south and continues to slowly deamplify. Still, though
noticeably less oppressive than Monday and Tuesday, Wednesay`s highs
will reach the upper 70s to low 90s with heat indices in the upper
70s to upper 90s. Additional showers and possible thunderstorms will
be possible Wednesday afternoon, potentially greater in coverage
than Tuesday, as a cold front tracks through the region from
northwest to southeast. This boundary will be responsible for
additional showers and thunderstorms Thursday, but more importantly,
finally providing a reprieve from oppressive heat, lowering
dewpoints to the 60s and bringing highs down to the mid 70s to
mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12z Saturday...VFR conditions have returned to all
terminals with the exception of KPSF where an MVFR ceiling
persists. Latest satellite imagery is showing erosion of the low
stratus layer resulting from the departing system to our north
and east and as mixing becomes deeper this morning, ceilings
will eventually break. FEW to SCT cloud groups will then prevail
beginning mid this morning or early this afternoon through much
of the remainder of the 12z TAF period with no precipitation
expected. Winds will be gusty throughout the day today out of
the northwest with sustained speeds ranging from about 15 to 20
kt and gusts of 25 to 30 kt. However, upon the loss of daytime
heating this evening, speeds will gradually diminish and become
light for the overnight period tonight.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures for June 23 and June 24:

June 23
Albany, NY: 96 degrees set in 1888
Poughkeepsie, NY: 94 degrees set in 1965
Glens Falls, NY: 95 degrees in 1894

June 24:
Albany, NY: 96 degrees set in 1943 Poughkeepsie, NY:
Poughkeepsie, NY: 94 degrees set in 2013
Glens Falls, NY: 95 degrees in 1914

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ033-042.
MA...Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for MAZ001-025.
VT...Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for VTZ013>015.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speck
NEAR TERM...Speck
SHORT TERM...Speck
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...Gant
CLIMATE...Speciale