Rochester, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

093
FXUS61 KBUF 110851
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
451 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain and drizzle will continue today and tonight, with areas of
wet snow and patchy fog. The overcast and unsettled weather
will continue through Saturday before a narrow ridge of high
pressure brings drier and warmer weather on Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper level troughing will maintain lots of moisture and a risk
of precipitation or drizzle through the period. Thermal profiles
and generally light intensity will favor rain for the most part,
although some wet snow can`t be ruled out across higher
elevations and the North Country. Any accumulations will be less
than an inch.

There will also be patchy fog, especially across higher terrain
and locations west of the surface trough axis which will extend
across Western NY roughly along the Genesee River. Visibility
below a half mile is possible at times in the Buffalo metro area
and the Niagara Frontier.

Abundant moisture will keep temperatures from rising much today,
or dropping much tonight so will hedge towards a small diurnal
range for the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough/closed low that has been responsible for the
damp/cool weather over the past couple of days will start to make a
a slow eastward progression on Saturday. At the surface, low
pressure along the Delmarva will follow suit of its parent trough
aloft, although the inverted surface trough will continue to extend
back across our area to start the period. This will keep the low
chance for scattered light showers across the area Saturday morning,
especially the southeastern portions of the forecast area. The
inverted trough will also start to make an eastward push through the
day Saturday. This along with drier air associated with high
pressure moving from the west will allow any lingering isolated to
scattered light showers to taper off from northwest to southeast
through the second half of the day. In fact, far western NY may see a
completely dry afternoon. Temps will remain a bit below average with
upper trough and associated cool airmass still overhead with highs
mainly ranging through the 40s.

Upper level trough axis pushes east into New England Saturday night
then off the New England coast Sunday. This will open the door
for high pressure to build n form the west with dry weather
expected for Saturday night and Sunday. Air mass will be slow to
warm, however strong April sunshine will help boost surface
temps back near normal levels with mainly low to mid 50s to
finish out the weekend. A stronger push of warmer air associated
with a warm front will press east into the area Sunday night.
Increased forcing associated with this feature will being the
chance for a few showers Sunday night, however with a fairly dry
airmass in place and better forcing remaining to our north, any
shower activity should be light and widely scattered. Lows will
range through the 30s, with temps slowly rising through the
second half of the night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Progressive spring pattern continues with a warm start to the
period followed by another plunge in temperatures for mid week.

We`ll start with the warmth, which will come at the start of the new
work week as 850 mb temps surge to +8C/+9C in the wake of the warm
frontal passage. This will help send surface temps well into the 60s
for most places on Monday, however a few showers may reach western
NY by later Monday ahead of a cold front approaching from the west.
Model consensus in pretty good agreement that the cold front crosses
western and northcentral NY Monday night, with a round of showers
likely along and just ahead of the boundary. This will open the door
to an initial surge of colder air Tuesday, followed by a second cold
front that will bring an even colder shot of air in its wake. Cold,
cyclonic flow aloft will bring unsettled weather through mid week
with rain showers Tuesday, mixing with and changing over to snow
showers Tuesday night. Remains on the chilly side Wednesday, however
upper level trough axis will move east of the area with lingering
rain and snow showers tapering off. Also of note will be the windy
conditions, with 30-40 mph gusts expected Tuesday through
Wednesday, with the strongest winds likely to occur on Tuesday.

Transient high pressure then builds over the region Thursday
providing a mainly dry and much less windy day, however will still be
on the cooler side of average for mid April.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper level trough will remain across the region, trapping
lots of low level moisture and causing some light rain showers
or drizzle. Some wet snow is possible across higher terrain.

This will also result in low cigs (IFR flight category or lower)
west of the weak surface trough, which will be roughly across
Rochester today. Fog is also possible at KBUF/KIAG/KJHW with a
risk of 1/2SM or less this morning.

Modest improvements possible during this afternoon, but expect
cigs to lower again tonight, with fog becoming more
widespread after 00Z. Vsby below 1SM is possible.

Outlook...

Saturday...Areas of MVFR/IFR in rain showers, especially across
eastern portions of the area.

Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Monday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers late.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A trough of low pressure will extend northward across the lake
tonight, with diminishing winds although it will remain choppy
at times. Expect choppy conditions to linger on both lakes
through Saturday, before high pressure brings light winds and
negligible waves for Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel
NEAR TERM...Apffel
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...Apffel
MARINE...AR/Apffel/Hitchcock