Buffalo, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

126
FXUS61 KBUF 131029
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
629 AM EDT Tue May 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak, broad area of low pressure and moisture over the Ohio Valley
today will move very slowly northeast across the Great Lakes and New
England through the end of the week. Showers will gradually develop
today from south to north across Western NY. Occasional showers and
a few isolated thunderstorms will continue tonight through the end
of the week, along with rain free time. Temperatures will remain
well above average through the end of the week, and it will become
somewhat humid as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Radar imagery showing the initial area of rain moving into the
western Southern Tier early this morning. This rain is moving into
an incipient dry airmass, with plenty of sub-cloud evaporation. This
will slow the northward progress of the rain through the first half
of today, and also result in a weakening trend as it moves
north.

A broad, weak mid level circulation over the Tennessee Valley today
will move ever so slowly northward over the next few days, becoming
an open, negatively tilted trough as it moves into the Ohio Valley
and Great Lakes Wednesday.

Deep moisture will gradually spread northward today through tonight,
supporting a few rounds of showers across Western NY, the Genesee
Valley, and Finger Lakes. Instability remains very limited through
tonight, with any thunder chances remaining very low. The North
Country will stay dry through tonight in closer proximity to strong
high pressure and associated dry air and subsidence over New England.

Wednesday, a few scattered showers will continue, along with plenty
of rain free time. The best coverage of showers will likely be found
across the Southern Tier in closer proximity to the trough. There
may be enough instability by afternoon to support a few isolated
thunderstorms, mainly across the Southern Tier.

Temperatures will remain well above average through the period.
Surface dewpoints will rise into the 55-60 degree range, bringing a
somewhat muggy feel at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For the back half of the work week...The upper level closed low will
continue to meander northward Wednesday night as it weakens and
transitions into a negatively tilted open wave. The remnant wave
will then gradually lose this negative orientation as it moves away
from the East Coast through Thursday night. While warm air and
modest synoptic moisture will continue to be drawn across the region
as the wave moves through, with a lack of any notable jet forcing
and only weak height falls, expecting greatest chances for showers
during this timeframe to be driven primarily by diurnal instability.
This should be maximized inland from the lakes with about 500-
1000J/kg MLCAPE across the western Southern Tier and Finger Lakes
region around midday Thursday, with drier weather on either side.
This amount of instability should allow for a few scattered
thunderstorms, though the aforementioned lack of shear and paltry
DCAPE values should preclude any potent/organized convection. Brief
upper level ridging and a thin wedge of drier air should even allow
for some clearing across WNY later Thursday afternoon.

Attention will shift Thursday night towards the next closed low,
which by this point will be slowly trudging eastward from the
Dakotas to the Upper Midwest. This feature will send a potent warm
front through the Great Lakes, which in addition to bolstering the
warm spell will also cause another round of showers to spread across
the forecast area from the west later Thursday night into Friday.
Still some uncertainty in timing of this feature, though there looks
to be enough elevated instability present to warrant some thunder
chances despite otherwise unfavorable diurnal timing.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The forecast area will lie in the warm sector of a stacked low
pressure system over the Upper Midwest heading into Friday night.
This system and its broader longwave trough will traverse the Great
Lakes through Saturday night and bring at least one more widespread
round of showers before sending a potent cold front through the
region. Long range guidance exhibits typical discrepancies in the
system`s evolution, particularly to the degree that the initial
stacked low over the Midwest/Great Lakes interacts with a secondary
closed low over Hudson Bay. Have stuck close to deterministic NBM,
the output from which depicts 60-80% chance for measurable precip on
Saturday, with greatest chances again across the interior locales of
the Finger Lakes and North Country in the afternoon. Relatively
lower confidence in shower potential thereafter with broad moist
cyclonic flow and cool temperatures aloft behind the passing low
through Monday, though a trend towards near to below normal
surface temperatures is much more certain.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A broad, weak upper level low will drift slowly north across the
Ohio Valley through tonight, with deep moisture spreading into the
area from south to north. The first area of showers will move into
the western Southern Tier during the pre-dawn hours, then move
farther north into the Niagara Frontier and areas near the south
shore of Lake Ontario by late morning to midday. Low levels will
initially be quite dry at first, which will help keep CIGS/VSBY
mainly VFR with the first batch of rain. The one exception will be
across the western Southern Tier, where MVFR CIGS will develop
across higher terrain later this morning.

The low levels will gradually saturate through the afternoon, with
MVFR CIGS becoming more likely, especially across the higher terrain
of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. A few more periods of showers
will continue this afternoon through tonight, with a mix of MVFR/VFR
CIGS For lower elevations and MVFR/IFR higher terrain. The North
Country will stay mainly dry and VFR through tonight, in closer
proximity to high pressure and associated dry air and subsidence
over New England.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Areas of MVFR with showers likely.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR with chance of of a few showers and
afternoon/evening thunderstorms with local/brief restrictions.

Friday and Saturday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely and
afternoon/evening thunderstorms with local/brief restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes
today will gradually drift southeast over the Atlantic over the next
few days. A broad, weak area of low pressure will gradually move
into the Ohio Valley. The pressure gradient between the 2 features
will maintain east to southeast winds on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario
today through Thursday. Winds will occasionally reach around 15
knots on Lake Ontario, producing choppy conditions.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock