Amherst, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

553
FXUS61 KBUF 310805
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
405 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A deepening coastal low will push north across New England
today...then out across Quebec tonight and Sunday. Scattered to
numerous showers attendant to this system this morning will thin
out from west to east during the course of today as the low
pulls further away from our region...with the cool cyclonic flow
behind this system then leading to a few more showers on
Sunday. Otherwise well below normal temperatures will prevail
this weekend...with dry weather and a marked day to day warming
trend then following for the first half of next week...resulting
in midsummerlike warmth building across our region by midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Longwave troughing will continue to deepen across the eastern third
of North America today...with continued DCVA/height falls along its
eastern flank also helping a secondary coastal low over New Jersey
to continue to organize while lifting northward across New England
and into the Saint Lawrence Valley. Plentiful moisture and lingering
ascent/cyclonic flow on the backside of the surface wave will help
to generate scattered to numerous showers this morning...with the
most widespread showers found across the North Country (which will
lie closest to the low track).

After about mid-morning a general drying trend will begin first
across far western New York...then will gradually spread
eastward/southward across the area through the balance of the day as
the coastal low makes its way to the Saint Lawrence Valley. This
should result in largely dry weather returning to the Niagara
Frontier by midday/early afternoon...before spreading further
southward/eastward through the afternoon and early evening hours.
This being said...the general cyclonic flow and the deepening cool
airmass across our region (850 mb temps falling to the vicinity of
zero to +1C) will help to keep considerable amounts of cloud cover
in place through the day...with some partial sunshine only reaching
portions of far WNY by late in the day. Otherwise the rather cool
airmass and cloud cover will result in an unseasonably cool final
day of May...with daytime highs only ranging from the lower 50s
across the higher terrain to the mid and upper 50s elsewhere. As if
this was not enough...a brisk northwesterly wind gusting to 25-30
mph at times this afternoon will make it feel even cooler.

Tonight the coastal low will gradually lift northward across Quebec
Province. For our region the general lack of forcing and drier air
on the backside of this system should allow generally dry weather to
prevail...with a few lingering showers across the North Country
gradually fading over time. Overnight a few more isolated showers
may become possible across the western Southern Tier owing to the
cool westerly upslope flow...though at this point the airmass
doesn`t look to be quite cold enough to support a true lake
response...something we don`t typically have to consider as a
possibility for the first day of June. Otherwise we can expect a
rather cool to almost chilly night...with lows ranging from around
40 across the interior of the Southern Tier/North Country to the
lower to mid 40s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough axis swinging through the region Sunday will
maintain a cool cyclonic flow. Wrap around moisture will keep the
threat for at least scattered showers, with some possible lake
induced showers as 850 mb temperatures drop to 0C. Could even see
some graupel within this colder regime aloft.

Any lingering showers will diminish Sunday night. Depending on the
amount clearing, some areas could drop into the 30s with some frost
potential across the interior Souther Tier and interior areas east
of Lake Ontario.

The upper level trough will retreat to the Canadian Maritimes Monday
as ridging starts to build into the Great Lakes. Associated drier
air will bring trend toward improving weather along with
temperatures closer to seasonal normals.

Fair weather continues into Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The pattern flips for next work week with a large ridge across the
east. Surface high pressure will move off the Mid-Atlantic coast and
a deep southerly flow will drive warm air into the eastern Great
Lakes region. Temperatures will reach the low to mid 80s Tuesday and
Wednesday. The region will be right under the ridge and should limit
diurnally-driven showers developing in the afternoon.

Wednesday night and Thursday the front flank of the broader western
trough will dig across the Great Lakes...with an attendant elongated
surface wave riding northeastward across the central Great Lakes and
eventually on into Quebec. Increasing moisture ahead of this surface
wave will increase chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday
through Friday. Clouds and showers will cut down on temperatures for
the end of the week but it will still remain warm, just not as warm
as the first part of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Increasingly cool/moist cyclonic flow on the backside of a
strengthening low along the mid-Atlantic coastline will result in
ceilings deteriorating to MVFR/IFR through sunrise...with the
lowest ceilings expected across the higher terrain of the
Southern Tier/North Country. The cyclonic flow and moisture will
also support the development of scattered to numerous showers
across the area through mid-morning...with these more numerous
with increasing eastward extent.

After mid-morning a general drying trend will begin first across far
western New York...then will gradually spread eastward/southward
across the area through the balance of the day as the coastal low
makes its way to the Saint Lawrence Valley. This should result in
largely dry weather returning to the Niagara Frontier by midday/
early afternoon...before spreading further southward/eastward
through the afternoon and early evening hours. This being said
ceilings will be a bit slower to improve...with flight conditions
gradually improving to lower-end VFR across the lower elevations and
MVFR across the higher terrain during the course of this afternoon.

As the surface low makes its way northward across Quebec and further
away from our region tonight...flight conditions should continue to
improve to VFR across the remainder of western New York...while a
mix of VFR/MVFR will remain in place across the North Country.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with scattered showers mainly from the Genesee
Valley eastward...with the best chance of MVFR ceilings east of Lake
Ontario.

Monday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Deepening low pressure lifting from the mid-Atlantic coastline
across New England will generate a moderately brisk northwesterly
flow across the Lower Great Lakes today...with a period of advisory-
worthy winds and waves expected along portions of the south shore of
Lake Ontario.

As the low tracks further north across Quebec tonight and Sunday
winds across our region will back to westerly. Another uptick in
wind speeds will likely produce an additional round of advisory-
level conditions at least across eastern portions of Lake Ontario
late tonight and Sunday...with such conditions less likely but also
not entirely out of the question across eastern Lake Erie.

High pressure ridging northeastward from the Ohio Valley will then
bring diminishing winds and wave action Sunday night and Monday...
with conditions then expected to remain below advisory levels
through midweek.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT
         Sunday for LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HSK/JJR
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR