Albany, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

598
FXUS61 KALY 180927
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
427 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring snow and rain showers to eastern
New York and western New England this afternoon into tonight.  Low
pressure will develop near the Mid Atlantic Coast and move along the
front Sunday into Sunday night bringing periods of snow... moderate
to heavy at times from the Greater Capital Region south and
east. A bitterly cold arctic air mass impacts the region Monday
through the mid week with some lake effect snowfall for the western
Adirondacks.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages:

- Snow showers mixed with rain in some valley areas will bring
  scattered and mainly light accumulations this afternoon.

- Snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches for the southwest
  Adirondacks.

.As of 425 am EST...A mid and upper level ridge continues to
move off the East Coast. Southwest flow continues to develop
ahead of the mid and upper level trough moving across the Great
Lakes Region, Upper Midwest and southeast Canada towards the
Northeast. A cold front and a prefrontal disturbance will
approach in late morning into the afternoon from the west with
heights falling aloft.

The low-level convergence along and ahead of the front and some
weak isentropic lift will bring showery pcpn to the region.
Downsloping off the northern Catskills may shadow and reduce the
pcpn in the Mohawk Valley and Greater Capital Region. Snow
showers will mix with rain especially in the valley areas and
from the Hudson River Valley eastward, as the boundary layer
warms. South to southwest winds will increase to 10-20 mph with
some gusts 25-35 mph in the south to north orient valleys.
Snowfall amounts over the higher terrain will be in the half
inch to two inch range with the wet bulb cooling. One area to
watch for locally moderate amounts of snow will be the southwest
Adirondacks in north-central Herkimer and southwest Hamilton
Counties where the southwest flow may orographically enhance the
snowfall with 2-4" or slightly more possible. The upper Hudson
Valley and the Lake George Region may get an inch or so of snow
from the wet bulb cooling before changing to rain.

Temps today will be near to slightly above normal ahead of the
cold front and prefrontal disturbance with a blend of the
MAV/MET/NBM used with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s in the
valleys and over NW CT. Expect upper 20s to mid 30s over the
higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Moderate confidence for plowable snowfall for the northern
  Catskills, Capital Region and southern VT and points south and
  east, where a Winter Storm Watch continues and Schoharie and
  Schenectady Counties were added to the Watch this morning.

- Coastal low track will dictate where the heaviest snow falls
  with some uncertainty in the guidance. NBM probabilities of
  >6" of snow are in the 30 to 45% range for the 24-hr period
  from 12Z Sunday to 12Z Monday from roughly Albany south and
  east.

Discussion:

The cold front tracks through the forecast area tonight with the
scattered rain/snow showers transitioning to snow and ending
shortly before or just after midnight. Some upslope snow showers
may persist over the western Dacks, northern Taconics,
Berkshires and southern Greens. Additional snow accumulations
of a coating to an inch or isolated two may occur in these
areas. Low level cold advection will occur across the region
with lows falling into 20s with some teens and single digits
over the western Mohawk Valley and the Adirondack Park.

Sun-Sun night...A broad mid and upper level trough will be over
the CONUS. A potent mid and upper level jet will be over the
East Coast. A weak sfc anticyclone around 1022 hPa will build in
from southeast Ontario/southwest Quebec early, but clouds will
quickly thicken and lower from the south and west in the
morning as the cold front lingers near the eastern New England
Coast. A short-wave will round the base of the trough with
cyclogenesis occurring near the NC/VA coast in the morning. The
cyclone will develop quickly near the left front quadrant of a
potent mid and upper level jet streak. Over running pcpn should
break out in the late morning/early pm south of the Capital
Region.

The track of the cyclone continues with uncertainty in the
deterministic and ensemble guidance. The GFS/GEFS CMC/GEPS and
the 3-km HRRR are the further north and west bringing the
coastal low near or southeast of Long Island by 00Z/MON. The 00Z
EC/ENS and the NAM are further south and east and are on the
right end of the envelop of tracks. In fact, the EC will yield
only a light to locally moderate snowfall in the watch area. The
latest GEFS plume mean is for about 5" near KALB for the event.
The latest WPC guidance and coordination with neighboring WFOs
is to hold with about 5-10" of snow from the Schoharie Valley,
Capital District and southern VT south and east. The higher snow
to liquid ratios that the increasing low to mid level FGEN taps
into with the QG lift may help out the snow totals Sun pm into
Sun night with the fast moving open wave. The dendritic growth
zone remains high but some mesoscale banding with enhanced rates
of an inch or so an hour may occur over the Berkshires/mid
Hudson Valley and eastern Catskills. SLRs may be lower towards
KPOU and I-84. Concerned, the Capital District may tilt toward
advisory level 4-7", but all said time to further assess and
the Watch for 50% confidence reaching 7" was maintained with
Schenectady and Schoharie Counties added.

Further north, Winter Wx Advisories for 3-6" of snow may be
needed for portions of the Mohawk Valley and the Lake George
Saratoga Region. 1-3" for the southern Dacks and western Mohawk
Valley. The snow will become moderate to heavy into Sun night.
Highs will only be in the 20s for most of the area with teens
over the Adirondack Park and lower 30s for the mid Hudson
Valley and NW CT.

The snow tapers off quickly shortly before or just after
midnight. Again...totals in the watch area of 5-10". The highest
amounts over the Berkshires, southern Taconics and Litchfield
Hills at this point...but trends in the CAMs and deterministic
guidance will be monitored. Lows will be in the single digits
and teens with zero to 5 below readings in the southern Dacks.
Wind chills or "feel-like temps" will be 5 to 15 below over the
higher terrain as northwest winds increase to 10-20 mph.

By Monday the arctic blast continues as bitter cold overspreads
the region. Max temps will be 15-20 degrees below normal. H850
temps will be -2 to -3 STDEVS colder than normal based on the
latest NAEFS. The actual H850 temps fall to -20C to -22C. Lake
effect snow begins to develop and move into the western
Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley with light accums late
in the day. Highs will only be in the teens and lower 20s with
single numbers over the Adirondack Park and southern Greens.
Wind chills or "Feel-like" temps will be in the lower single
numbers to 10 below zero in many locations...colder over the
higher terrain spots late in the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
- High confidence for bitterly cold temperatures Monday Night
through Thursday morning.

- Lake Effect snow chances (30-50%) across the western Adirondacks
Monday afternoon through Tuesday night.

Discussion:

Dry conditions return through Thursday with the exception of the
western Adirondacks. Lake Ontario is favored by latest forecast
models to bring chances (40 to 50%) of lake effect snow showers to
the western Adirondacks through Tuesday. A brief lull in the
snowfall for the western Adirondacks for Wednesday before returning
once again with a weak upper level shortwave moving through over
Canada on Thursday bringing chances of snowfall across the western
Adirondacks (30%). Exact band placement and snowfall amounts are
uncertain due to shifting in latest model guidance of where the
heavy snowfall occurs, but confidence continues to increase with
upper level flow to favor lake effect snow development off of Lake
Ontario to bring these chances of snow showers to the western
Adirondacks.

For temperatures, the arctic cold air continues through Thursday
morning. Tuesday morning lows are forecasted to be in the negatives
and single digits. Feel like temperatures are going to be even
colder as winds continue to be breezy through Tuesday afternoon with
temperatures feeling 5 to 25 degrees below zero (colder in
mountainous terrain). Highs on Tuesday are cold with mountainous
terrain locations in the single digits and in the teens for the
valley locations (ranging between 10 to 17 degrees). Winds decrease
Tuesday evening and become calmer for Wednesday morning, with low
temperatures feeling like the actual temperature. Wednesday morning
is forecasted to see clearing skies and with any recent snowfall
from recent weather systems, we could see temperatures drop well
below zero. Current forecast has temperatures between negative 15
and 0. Highs on Wednesday are in the single digits to the low teens.
Forecast confidence is very high due support of high probabilities
being greater than 95 percent by latest National Blend of Models 4.2
data for across all of eastern New York and western New England for
high temperatures being below 20 degrees and low temperatures being
below 5 degrees. The trend of needing Cold Weather Advisories
continues for Monday night through Thursday morning for all high
terrain locations and for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning
across most of western New England and eastern New York as feel like
(wind chill) temperatures could reach criteria. Isolated high
terrain locations such as the eastern Catskills and western
Adirondacks could reach Extreme Cold Watch/Warning criteria
Wednesday morning, but we`ll continue to monitor the trends and
latest probabilities of these locations reaching criteria.

Thursday morning is going to be very cold as well but along the
Hudson River Valley low temperatures are forecasted to be one to
five degrees above zero. But for high temperatures Thursday, most
locations reach into the low teens into the low 20s and we start to
see a trend of temperatures returning to near normal for beyond
Thursday, with highs back in the 30s for the end of next week.
Latest forecast model guidance is hinting at another coastal system
for next weekend, but confidence is very low in occurrence and timing
so kept mention of light snow showers Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06z Sunday...VFR conditions continue for all TAF sites until
this afternoon and evening when chances of a mix of rain and snow
showers moves through quickly between 18z and 00z. Conditions should
become a mix of VFR/MVFR during onset of shower activity, becoming a
mix of MVFR/IFR after 00z into the end of the TAF period. Kept
mention of the shower activity in PROB30 groups as shower activity
should be a mix of rain and snow for KPSF, KGFL, and KALB, and plain
rain at KPOU. Winds remain light and variable to start the TAF
period, increasing this morning after 12z to 10 and 15 knots with
gusts periodically between 15 and 25 knots through this afternoon.
After 00z, winds decrease to light and variable through the end of
the TAF period.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SN.
Martin Luther King Jr Day to Wednesday: No Operational Impact.
NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
     morning for CTZ001-013.
NY...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
     morning for NYZ047>049-051>054-058>061-063>066.
MA...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
     morning for MAZ001-025.
VT...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
     morning for VTZ013>015.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Webb
AVIATION...Webb