Truth Consequences, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

942
FXUS64 KEPZ 091724
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1124 AM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1045 AM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

 - Expect isolated thunderstorm coverage this evening into Friday,
   with highest chance for rain located in the mountains.

 - High temperatures will run about 5 to 10 degrees above normal
   through Friday, with afternoon values in the 100 to 106 range
   in the desert lowlands and urban areas.

 - An increase thunderstorm coverage is expected this weekend as
   moisture and upper level support improves. More widespread
   thunderstorm activity with a potential for heavy rainfall is
   expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1045 AM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Near Term: An area of high pressure over the southwest part of
the country will dominate the local area weather pattern the next few
days with hot above normal temperatures in the afternoon along
with isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Northerly flow
aloft will bring in drier air into the region that will limit
thunderstorm development mostly to the mountain regions.

With atmospheric precipitable water values at an inch or less,
any storms that develop will be high based and will be relatively
brief, producing brief periods moderate rainfall, along with a
potential for strong wind gusts. The highest rainfall potential
will be in the mountains with the main flooding threat located in
areas near recent wildfire burn scars in the Sacramento Mountains
and in the Mountains of the Gila region. Measurable rain from
thunderstorms over the lowlands is less likely but still possible
with residual moisture present in the atmosphere, mostly for areas
west of the Rio Grande.

Temperatures for the next three days will be well above normal
with afternoon high temperatures at or above 100 degrees across
the desert lowlands. The warmest temperatures will be along the
international border including El Paso and the lower Rio Grande
valley southeast of El Paso. Temperatures on Friday afternoon will
be the warmest with temperatures ranging from 101 to 106 across
the lowlands of southern New Mexico and Far West Texas. With the
additional heating, even with a drier air mass isolated showers
and thunderstorms will still develop in the late afternoon and
evening hours.

This Weekend:  After Friday, the area of strong high pressure will
shift more to the west, weakening its influence over New Mexico.
This will help lower temperatures a few degrees but will still
track a little above normal during the weekend. Additionally,
moisture from the Gulf will begin to flow back into the area,
increasing chances for shower and thunderstorm development across
the area. Heavier rain amounts are expected in the mountain areas.


Next Week: Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue to
increase next week as additional moisture surges into the region.
The state will be in between two high pressure systems with the
extension of the Bermuda high to the east facilitating the moist
flow from the Gulf. Precipitable water values will hover near an
inch and half Monday through Wednesday, which is an indicator of
very moist conditions that could lead to heavy rainfall with a
potential for flash flooding next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1045 AM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Mostly VFR conditions areawide. Variable, and generally light
winds will persist. Northeast flow will favor isolated
thunderstorm caused outflow reaching the lowlands again this
afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm coverage will be less and
mostly occurring in the mountains and very isolated in the
lowlands. Strong thunderstorm outflows could kick up winds, but
no mention of dust for the time being.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1045 AM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Daily thunderstorm chances will continue, especially over the area
mountains but drier air will be filtering in today through
Friday. Expect high temperatures on the lowlands to get into the
upper 90s to around 105 by Thursday which will lower RH`s into the
mid teens, but the mountains will generally remain in the 20s.
Winds will be on the light side through Thursday and a slightly
breezy day with west to northwest winds for Friday. Moisture
starts to return for the weekend with an uptick in thunderstorm
chances and RH`s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  77 104  80 105 /   0  20  20  10
Sierra Blanca            66  94  69  96 /   0  10  10  40
Las Cruces               71 101  73 101 /  10  30  40  10
Alamogordo               71  99  70 101 /   0  20  10  20
Cloudcroft               54  78  56  80 /  10  30  30  40
Truth or Consequences    74 101  73 102 /  10  40  30  10
Silver City              67  96  66  94 /  40  50  50  30
Deming                   72 104  75 103 /  20  40  40  10
Lordsburg                74 102  72  99 /  30  40  40  20
West El Paso Metro       76 100  78 103 /   0  20  20  10
Dell City                70  98  72 100 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Hancock             73 101  75 104 /   0  10  10  40
Loma Linda               69  93  71  96 /   0  10  10  20
Fabens                   74 101  77 104 /   0  20  20  10
Santa Teresa             74  99  77 101 /   0  20  30  10
White Sands HQ           77 101  77 103 /  10  20  30  20
Jornada Range            71 100  72 101 /  10  20  30  20
Hatch                    72 104  72 104 /  20  40  50  20
Columbus                 75 103  78 102 /  20  40  50  10
Orogrande                70  98  72 100 /   0  10  10  10
Mayhill                  59  88  63  89 /  10  20  10  40
Mescalero                59  88  61  91 /  20  30  30  40
Timberon                 57  85  59  87 /  10  20  30  30
Winston                  62  93  62  94 /  30  60  40  20
Hillsboro                69  99  68 100 /  30  50  50  20
Spaceport                70 100  70 101 /  10  30  30  10
Lake Roberts             63  96  61  95 /  50  60  50  40
Hurley                   67  99  68  96 /  40  40  40  30
Cliff                    70 103  68 101 /  50  40  30  30
Mule Creek               68  99  67  96 /  40  30  20  20
Faywood                  70  96  69  96 /  30  40  50  30
Animas                   74 102  71  99 /  30  50  50  20
Hachita                  72 101  71  99 /  30  40  50  20
Antelope Wells           71 100  70  97 /  20  60  60  40
Cloverdale               68  95  66  92 /  40  50  60  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...04-Lundeen