Taos, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

070
FXUS65 KABQ 040534 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1034 PM MST Tue Dec 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1026 PM MST Tue Dec 3 2024

 - A low chance of rain showers and high terrain snow showers over
   the far southern parts of the forecast area Thursday and Friday.

 - A winter storm looks to impact the region early next week with
   impacts ranging from stronger winds and accumulating snow for
   some, and much colder temperatures areawide.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 218 PM MST Tue Dec 3 2024

Seasonable temperatures and mostly benign weather expected through the
weekend with a few exceptions. A weak system over Arizona and
northwest Mexico will bring low chances for rain and mountain snow
to far southern areas Thursday through Saturday. A winter storm
looks to dive down from the northwest early next week, increasing
winds, provide the chance for accumulating snow across northern and
some central areas, and much colder temperatures areawide.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 218 PM MST Tue Dec 3 2024

The bank of dense fog has burned off and low clouds across a large
section of southeastern and east-central NM are continuing to thin
in coverage this hour. Meanwhile, a weak but synoptic scale upper
low is parked over southern CA bringing some mid to upper level
moisture northeastward over far northern Mexico. Some this will move
over southern and central NM tonight, bringing increased cloud
cover, even after the aforementioned bank of low clouds clears out.
Not all low clouds are forecast to clear out however, especially
with a surface high to the east still bringing moist southerly
return flow in southeastern NM and even into parts of the Rio
Grande Valley. Forecast confidence is low, but there is still a low
chance for some patchy fog to return tonight into Wednesday morning,
over parts of the central highlands, the Estancia Valley and the
Caprock. Coverage of any fog is forecast to be far less
extensive than this past morning. Otherwise, drier northwesterly
winds moving downslope off the Sangre de Cristo and Sandia Mtns will
inhibit the return of fog in places like Edgewood, Santa Fe and Las
Vegas.

The upper low moves over AZ tonight into Wednesday. Weak diffluent
flow aloft may be able to take advantage of the moist southerly
return flow to produce a few stray showers or sprinkles over
southern portions of the forecast area to include Catron, Socorro
and Lincoln Counties. Highs stay within a few degrees of today`s
readings, warming up 4F to 6F over Chaves and Roosevelt Counties
thanks to sunnier skies relative to today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 218 PM MST Tue Dec 3 2024

A rex block will remain in place over the western U.S. through
Saturday with upper ridging over the Pacific NW, Great Basin and
northern and central Rockies and a generally dry upper low over
Arizona and northwest Mexico. A majority of the forecast area will
see dry and mostly clear conditions. However, far southern parts of
the forecast area (southern Catron, Socorro, Lincoln and Chaves
County will see the chance for some sprinkles and at most light
shower activity due to being in the vicinity of the aformentioned
upper low circulation. Any rain and mountain snow accumulation will
be very minimal.

Come late Saturday into Sunday, the upper low over northwest Mexico
weakens, opens up, and gets picked up ahead of an upper level trough
moving south from the Gulf of Alaska to the Pacific NW and northern
Rockies. West winds pick up across the highlands and eastern plains
on Sunday as stronger 700 mb winds move south over the region.
Deterministic and ensemble cluster guidance seem to have a general
good consensus tracking the upper trough south and east across the
intermountain West late Sunday into Monday moving over New Mexico
Monday night and early Tuesday. Given the origins of this system, it
will be very cold in nature with 700 mb temperatures dropping as low
as -10 to -15 deg C Monday night into Tuesday morning making snow
the favored precipitation type. Snow accumulations look to favor
north central and northeast areas Monday into Tuesday morning. Much
colder temperatures and drier air looks to move in from the north
late Monday into next Tuesday with highs come then well below
average for mid December.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1026 PM MST Tue Dec 3 2024

Low VFR cigs have developed west of KSRR this evening. These low
VFR cigs will likely spread a bit northward overnight toward KCQC,
and gradually lower. Additional patchy low VFR/MVFR cigs will be
possible south of I-40 and east of the Central Mountain Chain with
the best chances from Fort Sumner eastward to K4MR and KCVS/KCVN.
Patchy fog is possible as well. Overall, low clouds and fog should
not be as widespread as last night. Otherwise, a northerly
drainage wind is expected at KSAF with gusts up to 20kt possible
toward sunrise. Any fog/low clouds will diminish by 18Z Wed.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 218 PM MST Tue Dec 3 2024

No critical fire weather conditions forecast thru this week and this
weekend. Weak flow aloft persists as an upper low slowly traverses
the region. Widespread poor ventilation results with some moisture
increasing recoveries and bringing some light sprinkles to southern
and central NM each morning. Westerly winds increase by next Monday
ahead of the next winter storm system that is favored to bring a
sharp drop in temperatures and snow to northern and central NM early
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  22  51  26  53 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  18  55  19  55 /   0   0   0   5
Cuba............................  25  51  24  51 /   0   0   0   5
Gallup..........................  16  53  18  54 /   0   5  10   5
El Morro........................  26  52  28  52 /   0   5  10  10
Grants..........................  18  53  19  52 /   0   0   5   5
Quemado.........................  24  54  24  54 /   0  10  10  20
Magdalena.......................  30  52  31  51 /   0   0  10  10
Datil...........................  27  52  28  51 /   0   5  10  10
Reserve.........................  23  58  22  61 /   5  10  10  30
Glenwood........................  31  62  35  63 /   5  10  10  30
Chama...........................  20  49  21  49 /   0   0   0   5
Los Alamos......................  32  51  31  48 /   0   0   0   5
Pecos...........................  30  52  28  51 /   0   0   0   5
Cerro/Questa....................  23  48  26  48 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  20  42  21  42 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  14  46  13  45 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  20  51  20  51 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  24  51  22  51 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  25  55  24  56 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  30  52  29  50 /   0   0   0   5
Santa Fe Airport................  28  54  27  52 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  37  56  37  56 /   0   0   5   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  33  57  32  56 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  29  57  29  58 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  32  56  32  56 /   0   0   0   5
Belen...........................  26  56  25  57 /   0   0   0   5
Bernalillo......................  31  58  29  58 /   0   0   0   5
Bosque Farms....................  25  57  24  57 /   0   0   0   5
Corrales........................  31  57  29  58 /   0   0   0   5
Los Lunas.......................  27  57  26  57 /   0   0   0   5
Placitas........................  34  56  33  53 /   0   0   0   5
Rio Rancho......................  32  56  31  56 /   0   0   0   5
Socorro.........................  33  56  32  59 /   0   0   5  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  30  52  28  51 /   0   0   5   5
Tijeras.........................  32  55  31  53 /   0   0   5   5
Edgewood........................  28  55  25  51 /   0   0   0   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  22  56  21  53 /   0   0   0   5
Clines Corners..................  30  51  25  47 /   0   0   0   5
Mountainair.....................  29  54  26  52 /   0   0   0   5
Gran Quivira....................  31  55  27  54 /   0   0   0   5
Carrizozo.......................  37  59  35  57 /   0   5   5  20
Ruidoso.........................  33  55  28  50 /   0   5   5  30
Capulin.........................  28  50  24  46 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  23  55  21  51 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  21  57  19  51 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  26  54  22  48 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  35  57  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  29  57  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  31  61  27  55 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  33  59  28  51 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  33  60  26  54 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  38  59  32  54 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  38  61  30  54 /   0   0   0   5
Fort Sumner.....................  36  61  29  53 /   0   0   0   5
Roswell.........................  41  63  40  55 /   0   0   0  20
Picacho.........................  36  61  34  52 /   0   0   0  20
Elk.............................  34  60  32  52 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...34