Taos, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

411
FXUS65 KABQ 122343 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
543 PM MDT Mon May 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 536 PM MDT Mon May 12 2025

- Higher flows will continue in rivers, creeks, arroyos, and low
  water crossings through this week, especially along the east
  slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, due to melting snow.

- Dry and increasingly windy conditions are forecast Tuesday into
  Wednesday. Gusts of 45 to 55 mph for western areas and the
  highlands on Tuesday and then for the central mountains chain
  eastward on Wednesday. Parts of western and south central New
  Mexico will also see low humidity with an increased risk of
  rapid fire spread.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 309 PM MDT Mon May 12 2025

The latest water vapor imagery shows the center of a broad upper
level trough over northern CA and OR moving slowly east into the
Great Basin this afternoon. Widespread high level moisture ahead of
this feature is spreading thicker cirrus into NM again today, while
mid level moisture and afternoon heating have led to a cumulus field
within central NM. Some of this activity may produce brief sprinkles
with gusty downburst winds around the ABQ metro by late afternoon.
The latest HREF still shows max 3-hr QPF spots with near-zero precip
around the Jemez, Sandia/Manzanos, and southern Sangre de Cristo Mts
before sunset. Otherwise, the focus is transitioning to increasing
southwest winds as the upper trough approaches tonight and Tuesday.
700-500mb layer winds will strengthen to between 45 and 55kt tonight
while becoming more zonal. Ridge top winds will increase overnight
then spread to more of the area Tuesday with a strengthening surface
pressure gradient over NM. Strong heating, deep mixing, and very dry
air over the area will lead to widespread strong winds. Southwest
winds of 25-35 mph with gusts up to 45 are expected (>80% chance)
over nearly the entire region with localized areas reaching 50+ mph
around Gallup and along the central mt chain. A Wind Advisory will
be issued for these areas. Winds will be slow to taper off Tuesday
evening as 700-500mb layer winds strengthen even further to between
50 and 60kt over NM. Ridge top winds will remain strong all night
while trending lighter in lower elevations. Min temps with the
persistent mixing will be roughly 5 to 10F above normal across
central and eastern NM while cooling over western NM with the
approach of a Pacific cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 309 PM MDT Mon May 12 2025

Another windy day is in store for NM on Wednesday. The speed max of
a deep upper level trough passes over the state, and deep mixed
layers across central and eastern NM, combined with 700mb winds
between 40-50kts, should allow for wind gusts up to 55mph across
much of the central mountain chain and adjacent east slopes. There
are low chances (~20%) for gusts over 60mph across the high terrain
of the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains, with an even lower
chance (~10%) for those gusts to reach areas such as Las Vegas and
Clines Corners. With gusts of 50-55mph increasingly likely, Wind
Advisories will likely be needed for Wednesday. With the low
confidence in those 60mph wind gusts, have opted against a High Wind
Watch, but that may be reevaluated in future forecast packages.
Blowing dust is also of concern across the area, however confidence
remains stunted on where it may/will form due to the widespread
precipitation the state experienced last week. Areas that are more
likely to see blowing dust (experienced less precipitation) are
south central and southwest NM, and into western/central Chaves
County impacting Roswell.

A Pacific cold front moves through later Wednesday as the trough
axis sweeps through, cooling off western NM Wednesday and extending
to all of NM Thursday. Temperatures drop to near to below average
(mid 70s to low 80s in lower elevations, mid 60s to low 70s in
higher elevations). An exception to this remains Chaves County and
perhaps the lower Rio Grande Valley near Socorro, where temperatures
may remain in the high 80s to low 90s. Dry west to southwest flow is
forecast to remain over the area through the rest of the week,
moderating temperatures to near average and keeping afternoon
breezes across the state. Another trough is then forecast to dip
down into western CONUS this weekend and return stronger southwest
winds across the state, with higher confidence for Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 PM MDT Mon May 12 2025

West to southwest breezes with gusts between 20 and 30kt (locally
higher to 40kt around KGUP) will slowly decrease this evening, but
as mid level winds increase overnight, mountain tops will remain
breezy. Brief periods of LLWS will occur overnight across western
NM, but confidence was not high enough to insert into the KGUP
TAF attm. Otherwise, a few virga showers remain possible this
evening across central and southwest areas and a few erratic
gusts will be possible with these showers. Winds will ramp up late
Tuesday morning areawide. Westerly wind gusts between 30 and 40kt
will be common Tuesday afternoon. Localized blowing dust is
possible, especially around dust-prone areas such as KROW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 PM MDT Mon May 12 2025

...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...

A slow-moving upper level trough passing through the central Rockies
Tuesday and Wednesday will force very dry southwest to west winds
over NM. While the combo of strong winds and sub-critical humidity
will be in place over a large portion of NM, the recent widespread
precipitation over northern, central, and eastern NM has allowed ERC
values to decrease closer to normal in many areas. Parts of northern
NM where heavy snow fell are actually near daily min ERC values for
early May. The more recent WFPI (Wildland Fire Potential Index)
shows the main focus for high fire danger in areas generally south
and west of the Albuquerque area. The Red Flag Warnings and Fire
Weather Watches Tuesday and Wednesday are mainly confined to the
area along and south of U.S. Highway 60. Greenup also continues
across the region with the warming temps as shown on satellite and
land-surface modeling trends.

Temperatures will trend warmer again while winds trends lighter
Thursday and Friday as the upper level trough pulls away from NM.
The next upper level trough will approach Saturday and drag more
strong winds and low humidity across the region Sunday and perhaps
Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  51  81  43  67 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  39  76  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  45  76  40  65 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  42  76  35  66 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  45  73  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  46  78  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  46  76  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  53  78  49  74 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  48  74  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  46  80  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  48  85  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  38  69  33  58 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  52  75  47  67 /   5   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  49  75  46  68 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  44  72  41  63 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  38  68  33  53 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  36  67  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  41  76  38  67 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  44  73  44  66 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  49  83  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  51  77  47  69 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  50  81  46  72 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  60  84  55  75 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  57  86  52  77 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  55  88  52  79 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  57  86  52  77 /   5   0   0   0
Belen...........................  55  88  51  82 /   5   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  56  87  51  77 /   5   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  54  88  50  80 /   5   0   0   0
Corrales........................  56  88  52  78 /   5   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  56  88  51  81 /   5   0   0   0
Placitas........................  57  82  52  74 /   5   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  56  86  52  77 /   5   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  59  91  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  52  78  48  70 /   5   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  51  81  49  73 /   5   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  49  81  46  73 /   5   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  48  82  45  75 /   5   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  48  76  46  70 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  50  81  49  75 /   5   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  50  81  50  76 /   5   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  59  84  60  78 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  56  76  56  71 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  47  76  44  71 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  45  80  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  46  79  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  48  77  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  55  85  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  50  80  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  55  87  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  56  85  54  82 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  57  88  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  59  90  60  86 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  58  91  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  58  90  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  65  97  64  93 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  60  88  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  58  86  59  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ105.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for NMZ105-106-
109-124.

Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for NMZ205-223-226-
229-239-240.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for NMZ105-106-109-124.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...34