Sunland Park, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

698
FXUS64 KEPZ 111745
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1145 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1136 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

 - Temperatures will continue to warm through the weekend, with
   hottest temperatures today through Sunday.

 - Very dry conditions, plenty of sunshine and no chance for any
   precipitation through the weekend and into early next week.

 - Winds generally light, with the exception of low-end breezy
   conditions this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Overall, no major changes from previous forecast packages with
fair weather conditions, light breezes (winds will become breezy
this weekend), and above average temperatures expected through
the period.

Upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to strengthen
it`s grip across the Desert Southwest today and Saturday. Again,
like aforementioned in previous discussions, this will ultimately
promote a substantial warming, lasting through the weekend.
Temperatures this afternoon will be 7-15 above averages, topping
out in the low 90s across the desert lowlands. Further warming
will occur on Saturday, with Saturday being the warmest day of
the period. Forecasted high temperatures today through Sunday will
rival record high temperatures with highs topping out in the low
to middle 90s each afternoon. Ridge axis will be over New Mexico
and West Texas on Saturday, when the hottest temperatures will
occur. High temperature on Saturday for El Paso is currently being
forecasted to be 97 degrees, which would obliterate the previous
record high of 90 degrees set back in 2018. In fact, temperatures
for El Paso could rival the monthly record of 98 degrees.
Temperatures will cool slightly heading into next week as a more
progressive-like pattern sets up across western CONUS.

Winds will be generally light to low-end breezy today as the
aforementioned high pressure aloft settles in, along with the lack
of any pressure gradients at the surface. Breaking of the morning
inversion along with the afternoon low to mid level thermals will
promote occasional gusts this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon.

Breezy winds return Saturday and especially Sunday as SWerly flow
aloft begins to nudge in from the west. The above average warmth,
very dry air, and breezy winds will induce Critical Fire Weather
Conditions this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

VFR conditions persist through the TAF period with mostly SKC, but
FEW-SCT250 could pop up here and there later this evening.
Otherwise, light afternoon breezes today becoming calm (AOB 5KT)
tonight and through the overnight hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 244 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

No significant changes from previous forecast packages. Like
aforementioned in previous discussions, high pressure aloft regime
will settle in across the Desert Southwest today and tomorrow.
With this comes very dry air, daily Min RH values will drop to
3-15 percent each afternoon with poor overnight recoveries. Daily
high temperatures will be 7-15 degrees above the seasonal average
as well. This combination of very dry air and above average warmth
will quickly dry out the 10-100 hour fuels, we are already
starting to see that at most of RAWS sites with readings at/around
or above the 90th percentile for ERCs. Ongoing severe to extreme
drought also coming into play, especially with the dryness of the
larger timber fuels.

With high pressure aloft overhead through today, this upper flow
regime will promote weak pressure gradients at the surface,
ultimately offering light winds. Winds each afternoon and evening
will be predominately terrain and drainage influenced, remaining
light at 5-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. The sensible weather
conditions in place and state of the fuels will promote Elevated
fire weather conditions this afternoon.

Upper level ridge will flatten quickly on Sat/Sun and Monday as an
upper level trough races across the Northern Rockies. As a result,
the mid to upper level pressure gradient will tighten across the
region, orientated from SW to NE inducing SWerly flow aloft. This
will ultimately promote daily afternoon/evening occurrences of
lee-side low development over the Front Range and surface
troughing across New Mexico. Thus increasing surface and low-level
winds across the area. This, with medium to high confidence,
will bring the return of Critical Fire Weather conditions
Saturday into Sunday. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for
NMZ110 and NMZ111 for Saturday. A Fire Weather Watch will remain
in effect for all New Mexico fire weather zones.

Deep afternoon mixing will allow for Good to Very Good, and in
some instances Excellent smoke ventilation rates areawide through
the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  93  59  94  62 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            87  55  88  56 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               89  51  91  53 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               89  55  90  55 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               67  45  68  46 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    88  53  92  58 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              84  52  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   91  50  93  52 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                91  48  90  51 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       91  60  92  61 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                89  52  93  51 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             95  58  95  56 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               85  58  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   94  57  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             90  53  91  54 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           90  59  92  64 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            89  50  90  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    91  48  94  52 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 92  52  94  55 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                88  53  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  79  48  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                78  47  80  49 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 75  44  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  81  42  83  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                87  51  90  55 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                88  48  91  50 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             84  47  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   86  48  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    91  45  90  47 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               86  49  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  85  51  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   93  50  92  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  90  48  91  50 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           91  51  90  52 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               87  54  85  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Saturday for Southwest
     Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest
     Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South
     Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ-
     Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ-
     Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...37-Slusher