Shiprock, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

787
FXUS65 KABQ 212115
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
315 PM MDT Mon Apr 21 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 313 PM MDT Mon Apr 21 2025

- Isolated storms may develop in far eastern New Mexico each
  afternoon Tuesday through Friday. A few storms main produce
  large hail and/or damaging wind gusts.

- Coverage of storms will likely expand westward on Saturday when
  a few gusty storms may develop as far west as the Rio Grande
  Valley. The threat of burn scar flash flooding remains very low
  at this time.

- Southwest winds trend stronger late week into the weekend,
  increasing fire danger in western and central New Mexico.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 313 PM MDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Pleasant weather continues through the night tonight. Strong to
severe storm chances return to far eastern NM beginning Tuesday
afternoon, where large hail and damaging winds will be the main
threats. Through Friday, far eastern NM will have the chance for
storms each afternoon. Storm coverage may expand westward to the
central mountain chain on Saturday. Strengthening southwest winds
may begin to increase the chances for rapid fire spread through next
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Weak quasi-zonal flow is present across New Mexico this afternoon
with abundant high-level moisture in the atmosphere bringing
increased cirrus. Breezy afternoon winds will subside this evening
after sunset with tranquil weather persisting overnight.

Tuesday sees light prevailing winds turning southerly to
southwesterly areawide. The notable highlight is surface high
pressure over the eastern CONUS bringing Gulf moisture northward
into southeastern and east-central NM. Afternoon thunderstorm
initiation will favor the dryline which looks to set up from roughly
the Quay/Curry County line SSW toward Carlsbad. Surface Td`s in the
upper 30s to low 40s will yield SBCAPE of 750 - 1500 J/kg allowing
for strong convective updrafts in any developing cell. 0-6km bulk
shear of 35kts will allow cells to become organized as they
generally track E to NE into TX. While any cell will have to contend
with mid-level dry air entrainment, large hail and damaging wind
gusts will be the main threat from any isolated to scattered strong
to severe thunderstorm with a low threat of a tornado. A few lone
mostly dry virga showers will try to get going further west over
Chaves and eastern Lincoln Counties. Very dry southwesterly mid-
level winds will put a quick end to those updrafts. Evening
convection will move into the western TX Panhandle with outflow
trying to kick off secondary updrafts over Roosevelt, Curry, and
perhaps Quay Counties late Tuesday night before things settle down
later into Wednesday morning. Dry and warm weather will be present
elsewhere Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Dryline convection continues through the rest of the week across
eastern NM. Quasi-perpendicular surface flow along the dryline
Wednesday afternoon work to drive convective updrafts along and east
of the dryline, mainly through the eastern-most counties of NM,
supported by SBCAPE values between 1300-1800 J/kg. 0-6km shear
between 25-40kts would allow for the updrafts to become organized.
With 700-500mb lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km with drier low levels,
the main threats from any strong to severe storms continue to be
large hail and damaging wind gusts. SPC has included a day 3 slight
risk just clipping our southeastern CWA, and this is supportive of
the current thinking of the area of likely development. A LLJ is
forecast to kick in during the early overnight hours Wednesday
night, which may induce secondary convective storms. If there was
any time for tornadogenesis, it would be during the LLJ episode, but
very low chances remain for tornadoes at this time.

The dryline sets up further eastward on Thursday, which would limit
thunderstorms to just the farthest eastern plains of NM, with the
highest chances being in far northeastern NM near Clayton, though
chances remain low (<20%) for severe thunderstorms. A backdoor front
begins to push into NM late Thursday, being the catalyst for any
stronger to severe storms for the far northeast plains. This front
continues to push into eastern NM. lowering temperatures up to 10F
across the region, settling them right near average (mid 60s to mid
70s). This front may push through the central mountain chain
overnight, giving gusty gap winds to ABQ and Santa Fe overnight
Friday into Saturday.

Model guidance diverges on the development of an upper level trough
pushing into western CONUS late week into the weekend. ECMWF
solutions depict a deeper, slightly slower troughing pattern and the
surface dryline receding into the central mountains. This pattern
is the favored solution at ~40% of ensemble members, and would
bring more widespread thunderstorm coverage to eastern NM. The
same clustering gives 30% chance for SBCAPE >500 and 0-6km bulk
shear >30kts across much of eastern NM Saturday, upping to 50%
across Curry and Roosevelt Counties. While uncertainty remains
with how the system plays out, storm coverage looks to continue
through Saturday at least. Into Sunday, upper level winds
increase, and with dry, well mixed surface layers, non-
thunderstorm winds are likely to increase area wide, bringing in
breezy to windy conditions and the heightened chances of rapid
fire spread, mainly across eastern NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1104 AM MDT Mon Apr 21 2025

VFR prevails with light afternoon breezes across the Land of
Enchantment this afternoon. Isolated LLWS arrive into east-central
and southeastern NM close to the TX line tonight for a few hours
before sunrise Tuesday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 313 PM MDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Dry and warm weather will be present across the western half to two-
thirds of the state with breezy afternoon conditions each day this
week. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions returns
to these areas as winds strengthen Friday and Saturday. Low-level
moisture will encroach into eastern NM setting up the season`s first
round of dryline based afternoon convection Tuesday into the
weekend. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible
close to the TX line Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon and evenings. A
cold front back into eastern NM Thursday night through Friday will
cool temperatures there and bring increased humidity lasting into
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  38  75  40  76 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  26  71  29  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  35  70  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  27  71  27  72 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  35  70  35  70 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  31  74  32  75 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  35  73  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  43  73  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  38  71  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  30  78  33  78 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  33  82  38  82 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  28  63  32  67 /   0   5   0   5
Los Alamos......................  43  68  45  70 /   0   0   0   5
Pecos...........................  40  69  41  73 /   0   0   5  10
Cerro/Questa....................  36  67  38  70 /   0   5   0  10
Red River.......................  30  57  33  59 /   0  10   0  20
Angel Fire......................  27  63  28  66 /   0   5   5  20
Taos............................  31  70  33  73 /   0   5   0  10
Mora............................  35  69  35  70 /   0   5   5  20
Espanola........................  37  76  39  78 /   0   0   0   5
Santa Fe........................  43  71  45  73 /   0   0   0   5
Santa Fe Airport................  39  73  41  76 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  49  76  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  44  78  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  40  81  43  82 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  44  78  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  33  81  40  83 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  43  79  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  34  81  40  82 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  43  80  45  81 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  35  80  42  82 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  47  75  48  76 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  44  78  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  45  83  46  86 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  43  71  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  43  73  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  37  73  38  75 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  30  75  32  77 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  37  71  38  72 /   0   0   0   5
Mountainair.....................  37  74  39  76 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  38  75  40  75 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  46  78  47  79 /   0   0   0   5
Ruidoso.........................  41  74  45  74 /   0   5   0   5
Capulin.........................  37  69  38  70 /   0  10  10  30
Raton...........................  36  74  35  75 /   0  10   5  30
Springer........................  36  75  35  75 /   0   5   5  20
Las Vegas.......................  36  74  37  74 /   0   0   5  10
Clayton.........................  43  78  45  76 /   0   5  10  40
Roy.............................  39  75  42  74 /   0   5  10  30
Conchas.........................  42  82  48  82 /   0   0  10  30
Santa Rosa......................  40  79  45  80 /   0   5   5  10
Tucumcari.......................  44  81  50  80 /   0   0  20  30
Clovis..........................  48  83  52  81 /   0  30  40  30
Portales........................  47  84  51  82 /   0  30  40  30
Fort Sumner.....................  43  83  51  83 /   0   0  10  10
Roswell.........................  49  88  54  88 /   0  10  10  10
Picacho.........................  43  84  44  84 /   0  10   5  10
Elk.............................  43  83  43  81 /   0   5   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...24

Please note: The SYNOPSIS section will be terminated by the end of April.