Shiprock, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

335
FXUS65 KABQ 241119 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
419 AM MST Sun Nov 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 410 AM MST Sun Nov 24 2024

 - Breezy to windy conditions Sunday with gusts of up to 55 mph
   along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
   southward to around Vaughn.

 - Rain and mainly mountain snow showers mostly over far northern
   areas Tuesday through Wednesday night with a few to several
   inches of snow possible in the northern mountains.

 - Breezy to windy conditions return Tuesday through Wednesday,
   then colder and mostly sunny on Thanksgiving Day.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 211 AM MST Sun Nov 24 2024

Above normal temperatures continue today with strong winds across
the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and adjacent highlands today as a
disturbance moves across the Rockies. Colder, especially across
eastern and northern areas, on Monday behind a backdoor front with
lighter winds. Rain and mountain snow chances across far northwest
and north central areas Tuesday through early Thanksgiving morning
as another system moves across the intermountain West. Highest
snowfall amounts across the Tusas Mountains with some light snowfall
accumulations across the rest of the northern mountains and Raton
Pass. Colder and dry on Thanksgiving Day. Slightly milder
temperatures with mostly cloudy skies Thanksgiving weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 211 AM MST Sun Nov 24 2024

The upper level jet will continue to increase over NM today and
tonight. Winds at H7 will be around 50-60kt by 8am this morning.
Though much of this momentum will not mix to lower elevations, it
will buffet the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. A
Wind Advisory was already issued for the area, but adjusted the
start time to 7am to account for these stronger winds and the
potential for mountain wave activity that comes with them. The
remainder of the Wind Advisory is on track. Though mixing heights
will be rather low, a deepening 1000mb surface low near the OK/NM/CO
border will aid in strong winds developing across east central NM.
Erratic wind gusts will be possible at both KLVS and KCQC today.

Overall, H5 heights will lower today, which will allow temperatures
to be a few degrees cooler, mainly across western NM. Across the
east, the downslope component of the wind will likely overcome any
cooling. Batches of cirrus clouds will cross the area today and
tonight. Lower clouds near the Colorado border may produce some
flurries across the Tusas Mountains overnight as well. Cold air
advection will continue though low temperatures overall will remain
above normal. This is in great part due to the atmosphere not fully
decoupling overnight and westerly winds staying breezy, especially
across the high terrain and just downstream of the Central Mountain
Chain. Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front will push into northeast NM
around or shortly after midnight before pressing southward through
the plains on Monday. Low clouds will develop behind the front
across northeast NM. Though breezy winds will occur along and just
behind the front, they should weaken Monday afternoon. Temperatures
will be colder areawide Monday, though considerably so across
eastern NM. High temperatures on Monday will be as much as 25
degrees colder than Sunday`s high temperatures across the eastern
plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 211 AM MST Sun Nov 24 2024

Moist west and southwest upper level flow moves in across far
northwest and north central NM early Tuesday morning ahead of the
next upper level trough over the Pacific NW. Orographic snow will
develop and gradually ramp up across the San Juan and Tusas
Mountains during the day Tuesday. Gusty southwest and west winds
return to the highlands and east central plains Tuesday afternoon
due to the stronger westerly flow. The strongest winds with gusts of
up to 50 mph will be across the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains and central highlands, including Clines Corners. This
southwesterly and westerly flow will result in a much warmer Tuesday
with temperatures across northeast and east central NM around 10 to
20 degrees warmer than Monday and other locations 5 to 10 degrees
warmer than Monday. The trough axis dives southeast towards the Four
Corners come Wednesday morning. Orographical snow will continue
across the San Juan and Tusas Mountains Tuesday night with locally
higher wind gusts possible across the northern mountains and
adjacent east slopes due to increasing mountain wave activity as
ridge top winds increase to 50 to 65 kts. The trough axis scrapes
northern NM Wednesday with rain and mountain snow coverage peaking
across far northern areas during the afternoon and early to mid
evening hours. Snowfall accumulations will be highest across the
Tusas Mountain with pretty minimal snowfall accumulations across the
other northern mountain ranges. Stronger westerly winds of 40 to 55
kts at 700 mb at the base of the trough will result in breezy to
windy day for most of the forecast area. The strongest winds will be
across the east slopes of the central mountain chain and adjacent
highlands and plains where gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible.
In terms of temperatures Wednesday, western and northern NM will be
cooler by around 5 to 10 degrees behind the Pacific front, while
east central and southeast NM warm up a little more due to
downsloping effects from the west winds.

Winds taper off after sunset and precipitation quickly wanes from
west to east overnight as the shortwave trough exits into the
southern Great Plains. The associated Pacific and backdoor fronts
along with dry northwest flow behind the shortwave will result in a
colder and mostly sunny Thanksgiving Day with temperatures slightly
to as much as 10 degrees below average. Temperatures warm closer to
late November averages on Black Friday and Thanksgiving weekend as
upper level flow becomes more zonal ahead of a baggy and weak upper
low over southern CA and AZ. This weak low will increase cloud cover
across the forecast area during this time. A few sprinkles are also
not out of the question across western NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 410 AM MST Sun Nov 24 2024

LLWS will remain a concern for KGUP and KLVS terminals through
16-17Z as winds aloft continue to increase. Thereafter, strong
westerly winds will develop at the surface, with gusts near 35 kt
across west central NM and up to 45kt along and just east of the
Central Mt Chain. Overnight, a few flurries will be possible
across the Tusas Mountains. Otherwise, winds will gradually
diminish, though breezy to locally windy conditions will persist
along and east of the Central Mt Chain through sunrise. A
backdoor cold front will enter northeast NM around midnight. This
front will press southward through the plains Monday morning. A
few breezes with gusts between 20 and 25kt will be possible along
and behind the front. MVFR cigs will also be possible across far
NE NM behind the front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 211 AM MST Sun Nov 24 2024

Ventilation rates will improve areawide today, though will remain
poor across the middle Rio Grande Valley. Gusty westerly winds are
expected across the Western Mountains and areas along and just east
of the Central Mountain Chain with gusts near 35-45 and 45-55 mph,
respectively. Fortunately, humidity values will trend upward today,
thus only elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are
expected in these windier areas. Ventilation rates will decline on
Monday with less wind and cooler temperatures expected. A backdoor
cold front will press through eastern NM switching winds around the
north and northeast Monday morning. West to southwest winds will
return on Tuesday and will be even stronger on Wednesday.
Thankfully, humidity values will remain well above critical
thresholds. Ventilation rates will improve once again, though any
burns will have to contend with strong wind gusts again.
Additionally, an upper level trough will bring rain and snow to
northern NM. Several inches of snow accumulation is possible for the
northern mountains, but a mix of rain and snow is likely elsewhere.
Cooler and drier weather is expected for Thanksgiving with less
wind. A slow warm-up is then expected for the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  58  26  49  34 /   5   5   0  20
Dulce...........................  55  21  48  25 /   5   5   0  20
Cuba............................  57  25  49  31 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  60  23  53  28 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  57  28  51  32 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  63  25  55  28 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  63  28  57  30 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  65  36  59  37 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  62  32  58  32 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  67  28  65  28 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  69  38  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  50  20  45  23 /   5   5   0  20
Los Alamos......................  55  33  46  35 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  57  31  51  31 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  53  27  45  29 /   0   0   0   5
Red River.......................  45  22  37  24 /   0   0   0   5
Angel Fire......................  49  22  41  25 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  55  24  47  24 /   0   0   0   5
Mora............................  59  29  50  26 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  63  29  54  30 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  57  32  49  35 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  59  29  51  31 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  62  37  54  39 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  63  36  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  64  33  58  33 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  63  34  56  36 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  65  28  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  64  32  56  33 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  64  27  57  30 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  65  33  57  34 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  64  30  57  32 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  60  35  52  36 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  64  34  55  35 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  70  37  63  37 /   0   5   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  58  33  49  33 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  60  35  51  35 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  60  31  52  30 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  63  28  54  24 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  59  30  49  30 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  62  32  54  33 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  62  33  54  32 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  66  41  61  39 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  62  42  59  37 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  54  22  39  24 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  65  26  45  23 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  54  24  44  23 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  65  30  47  27 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  70  30  44  30 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  66  28  45  27 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  73  33  51  30 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  70  38  50  30 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  72  33  48  30 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  74  38  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  75  37  54  32 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  75  40  55  30 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  77  42  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  76  45  65  35 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  74  43  65  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening for NMZ215.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this evening
for NMZ223-229-233.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...34