Shiprock, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

231
FXUS65 KABQ 302014
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
114 PM MST Thu Jan 30 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1244 PM MST Thu Jan 30 2025

- Snow showers continue in the northern mountains through the
  evening, creating winter driving conditions at locations such as
  Raton Pass.

- Gusty west winds continue in the highlands and southeast plains
  through the afternoon, with localized blowing dust reducing
  visibility on roadways at times.

- Rapid warming trend expected Friday through early next week.
  Record high temperatures may be threatened in some areas.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1244 PM MST Thu Jan 30 2025

Snow showers will continue in the northern mountains through the
early evening, with the greatest travel impacts at Raton Pass where
a mix of snow and blowing snow are expected. Gusty west winds in
the highlands and southeast plains continue through the afternoon
as well, creating localized areas of reduced visibility in
blowing dust. A rapidly warming trend is expected Friday through
early next week, with record high maximum and minimum temperatures
being threatened.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 1244 PM MST Thu Jan 30 2025

The upper low is currently spinning over far southeast CO and the OK
Panhandle per the latest water vapor satellite imagery. Mosaic radar
imagery shows wrap-around precipitation moving south from CO into
the Sangre De Cristos and near Raton Pass, where winter highlights
are in effect until 11pm and a few inches of additional snowfall are
expected. Snow has ended elsewhere and winter highlights for the
upper RGV westward have been cancelled. Windy conditions have
developed across much of the area on the backside of the upper low
and strong winds are hitting east central portions of the state,
with gusts to between 50-60mph noted. The Wind Advisory will be left
as-is for now and ends at 6PM this evening. Winds throughout the
column will be on the downtrend overnight as the upper low pulls
east away from the area and shortwave ridge follows going into
Friday. A cold night is on tap as winds diminish and clouds clear
out, with low temperatures forecast to be up to 10 degrees below
average across the lower elevations of central and western NM. A
warming and drying trend will begin Friday, with plenty of sunshine
bringing fairly large diurnal temperature ranges of 40-50 degrees
across western NM. Near-ideal radiational cooling conditions will
prevail Friday night, making for cold overnight lows that will be
withing a few degrees of normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1244 PM MST Thu Jan 30 2025

The warming trend will continue into the weekend as pressure heights
continue to rise. The upper-level pattern overhead will be zonal,
with a subtropical ridge to the south and deceptively high 500mb
heights of 2-4 std dev above average. There is high confidence in
well-above average temperatures Saturday and particularly Sunday.
High clouds streaming in from the Pacific may keep temperatures down
a degree or two below the current forecast on Sunday, but it will be
warm nonetheless. Sunday will be the first of several days that
record highs will be threatened, with the likelihood increasing on
Monday when record highs are currently forecast at Albuquerque
(69F), Farmington (64F), and Portales (78F), among other areas.

Forecast uncertainty then increases after Monday when the
temperature forecast gets a bit trickier. The main source of
uncertainty comes from the potential location of the jet stream. In
general, EPS ensemble members show a zonal jet stream in southern
Canada early next week, while GEFS members bring the jet slightly
further south over the northern US Plains. This is important because
it affects the likelihood of a backdoor front intrusion from the
northeast. With southwest to west flow over New Mexico, a backdoor
front will struggle to make it all the way down the plains before
washing out if the jet is further north over Canada as indicated by
the GEFS mean synoptic pattern. Unfortunately, there is no scenario
that brings more than a few flurries to the area through at least
Tuesday next week. There is a low chance of snow in the northern
mountains mid to late week, but widespread precipitation is very
unlikely through the end of the first week of February.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1005 AM MST Thu Jan 30 2025

Improving conditions are forecast today, with mountain
obscurations gradually diminishing. Snow will continue over the
Sangre De Cristos and northeast NM, but is not forecast to impact
KLVS or KSAF. Strong/gusty northwest winds are already developing
and will continue to increase into mid afternoon, with the
strongest winds forecast at KFMN and KROW where gusts to between
32-36kts will be common. Blowing dust will likely develop at KROW
this afternoon and limit visibility to 3SM or less. Winds
throughout the column will decrease overnight with VFR conditions
persisting.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1244 PM MST Thu Jan 30 2025

An upper low brought significant snow accumulations to the northern
mountains and upper RGV overnight through today, while strong winds
have developed on the backside of the departing low this afternoon.
A warming and drying trend will begin Friday and continue into early
next week with daytime temperatures reaching well above normal by
Sunday. The combination of stronger westerlies and and a very dry
airmass will bring elevated to near critical fire weather conditions
to east central portions of NM on Saturday afternoon. Warmer
temperatures over the weekend will allow for deeper mixing of
moderate westerlies aloft to bring improved ventilation to much of
the area, although vent rates will likely remain poor in the RGV and
across northwest NM. Increasing southwest flow and a deepening lee
side trough may bring near critical fire weather conditions to
portions of the area by Wednesday of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  14  48  20  53 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................   9  50  10  53 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  12  48  18  54 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................   6  54  10  58 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  13  52  19  56 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................   8  53  10  59 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  14  53  18  58 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  24  53  28  60 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  18  51  22  59 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  11  60  13  65 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  22  61  24  65 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  11  46  13  48 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  23  49  26  51 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  20  53  25  52 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  10  45  14  48 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................   9  39  12  41 /   5   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................   1  45   8  47 /  10   0   0   0
Taos............................   6  48   9  52 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  18  54  24  56 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  16  53  18  57 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  23  49  25  52 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  18  51  19  54 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  27  52  29  56 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  24  54  26  58 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  19  55  22  60 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  24  54  25  58 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  18  55  19  61 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  21  55  24  59 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  16  55  18  60 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  21  55  23  59 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  17  55  18  60 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  23  52  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  22  54  25  58 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  24  57  26  64 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  24  49  26  53 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  23  50  27  53 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  20  51  23  56 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  13  54  13  58 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  19  50  22  54 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  20  52  24  56 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  20  52  23  55 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  26  55  29  58 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  27  53  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  19  51  27  56 /  30   0   0   0
Raton...........................  15  55  19  58 /  20   0   0   0
Springer........................  14  59  18  61 /  10   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  19  56  23  59 /   5   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  25  60  29  66 /  10   0   0   0
Roy.............................  21  56  23  62 /   5   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  24  64  29  68 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  23  63  29  65 /   5   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  26  63  29  70 /   5   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  26  63  29  68 /  10   0   0   0
Portales........................  25  63  27  68 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  23  62  25  69 /  10   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  27  64  27  70 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  28  63  29  69 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  27  60  28  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for NMZ213-214.

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for NMZ215-
227.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening for NMZ223-226-233-239-
240.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...11