Ruidoso, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

662
FXUS65 KABQ 251145 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
545 AM MDT Fri Apr 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 537 AM MDT Fri Apr 25 2025

- Isolated severe storms may develop in far eastern New Mexico
  this afternoon and again Saturday. A few storms may produce hail
  and/or damaging wind gusts. There is a low chance of flash
  flooding.

- Critical fire weather conditions will increase the risk of fire
  spread along the Rio Grande Valley today and again tomorrow.
  Fire danger becomes more widespread Sunday as southwest winds
  strengthen.

- Strong southwest winds may down trees and cause damage to
  utility poles in central and eastern New Mexico Sunday
  afternoon. Blowing dust and hazardous crosswinds may impact
  travel.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 AM MDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Severe storms may develop in the eastern plains this afternoon and
again tomorrow. There is a low chance of flash flooding in the east
on Saturday and Saturday night as well. Very strong winds and low
humidity will combine to create widespread critical to locally
extreme fire weather conditions on Sunday. Hazardous crosswinds
and blowing dust may impact travel on Sunday afternoon. Gusty
winds will continue into Monday for areas along and east of the
central mountain chain. Light showers will favor northern and
eastern areas Tuesday and again late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM MDT Fri Apr 25 2025

A wide variety of hazardous weather will begin impacting the region
today then continue thru the weekend. A moist, backdoor cold front
entering northeast NM early this morning will surge southwest toward
the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mts and the I-40 corridor by
late morning. Low level moisture across southeast NM will also build
northwest into the Pecos Valley thru this afternoon. Meanwhile, an
unseasonably strong H5 low approaching from the west will increase
large-scale ascent over the region on strong south-southwest flow
aloft. The 00Z HREF, with support from the NBM QPF and the SPC and
CSU Machine-Learning outlook, shows storm initiation taking place
over the east-central and southeast plains this afternoon where the
better CAPE, moisture, and afternoon heating coincide. A few of
these storms may become strong to severe with large hail, damaging
winds, heavy rain, and an isolated tornado as the main threats.
Initiation then takes place along the east slopes of the Sangre de
Cristo Mts this evening as southwest to northeast oriented linear
segments. These storms may evolve into a large convective cluster
over east-central and northeast NM after midnight before exiting
into west TX thru Saturday morning. The CSU outlook indicates the
hazardous outlook farther northwest than SPC which is in line
with the latest HREF.

The other focus today will be strong southerly winds and very low
humidity across central and western NM with areas of blowing dust
possible. The strongest winds are likely in the Rio Grande Valley as
winds funnel up the valley with gusts of 30 to 40 mph expected (>60%
chance). Fire danger will be high and Red Flag Warnings are already
in place.

The cold pool developing in the wake of convection over eastern NM
tonight will help to force the low level moisture westward into the
Rio Grande Valley overnight. Gap winds are likely to develop after
midnight from near Santa Fe to ABQ with the trajectory favorable for
the stronger gusts at Santa Fe. Humidity will rise quickly as the
boundary moves west which also strengthens the density gradient and
enhances gap wind flows. Gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be common again
but from the east and southeast. Widespread low stratus will develop
over eastern NM with patchy fog possible in areas that do receive
heavier rainfall. The probability for >0.25" is above 60% east of a
line from near Des Moines to Santa Rosa and Portales.

Showers and storms lingering over eastern NM Saturday morning with
widespread areas of low stratus and cool temps may delay convective
initiation until late in the day. The better forcing may actually be
along the moisture gradient near the central mt chain where stronger
afternoon heating takes place. Flow aloft will continue to increase
and bulk shear will be even stronger, but confidence on the overall
convective coverage is still low to moderate at this time. SPC has
drawn the Marginal Risk farther westward into more of east-central
and southeast NM for Saturday. Southerly winds are also likely to
increase again over central and western NM with a near-repeat of
high fire danger and more blowing dust in the Rio Grande Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM MDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Elevated instability in the eastern plains should allow convection
to continue into the overnight hours, particularly right along the
dryline, which will tighten up and become mostly stationary on a
line extending roughly from Raton southward to Roswell. Drier air
aloft will eventually be advected in from the southwest, which will
make it difficult for updrafts to maintain their strength after
Midnight despite the ample vertical wind shear. By the morning, the
dryline will be off to the east in Texas and winds will be already
increasing as the boundary layer deepens and stronger winds aloft
begin to mix down to the sfc. Sunday is setting up to be very windy
and dusty with widespread critical to locally extreme fire weather
conditions. NAEFs tables nail down the main corridor of strong 700mb
winds in a corridor extending from the lower Rio Grande Valley
northward towards Raton Pass. 700 mb winds are above the 90th
percentile, which is quite impressive considering we are in the
midst of the climatologically windiest time of year. A High Wind
Watch was issued for the central mountain chain and adjacent
highlands where confidence in strong winds is highest, although
expect this area to be extended in future forecast packages.

A Pacific front will pass through Sunday night into Monday morning.
The front will be on the weaker side so there will be a gradual
shift around to the west as a colder airmass spills in from the
west. Gusty west winds are likely again along and east of the
central mountain chain Monday afternoon since zonal flow over the
crest of the central mountain chain will draw the lee side low
southward into the TX Panhandle.

Models are in good agreement that a weak shortwave will traverse the
state on Tuesday. While the forcing and moisture are not
particularly impressive, the increased mid-level moisture and
strong sfc heating will help some convective showers develop, with
northern and eastern areas being favored. Widespread wetting
precipitation is very unlikely with this shortwave. Forecast
confidence decreases after Wednesday despite high agreement in the
overall 500mb pattern. Most models show a trough developing over
the Great Basin, but the exact location of shortwaves embedded
within the longwave trough are not resolved well and this is
illustrate well based on deterministic guidance. There is at least
a low chance of showers in northern and eastern areas late week
and the threat of any high wind events is low for the whole week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 AM MDT Fri Apr 25 2025

IFR low cigs and patchy fog have developed over far northeast NM
and within the Pecos Valley around Roswell. This activity will be
slow to erode thru 11am. LIFR low cigs are very likely to persist
all day around Clayton. Moisture in place across eastern NM will
give way to SHRA/TS after 2pm with a few strong to severe storms
possible around the Caprock. Stronger cells will move northeast
around 25kt with large hail and damaging winds possible. Central
and western NM will contend with strong southerly winds and BLDU
around the Rio Grande Valley. Gusts may approach 35kt at KABQ so
an Aviation Weather Warning is possible later today. The coverage
of SHRA/TS will expand over eastern NM thru this evening with
widespread IFR cigs/vsbys after midnight. Winds will then turn out
of the east in the RGV with another round of gusts near 35kt below
canyons from KABQ to Santa Fe.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 310 AM MDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Strong southerly winds and single digit humidity in the Rio Grande
Valley today will combine with deep mixing, above normal temps, and
ERC values above the 75th percentile to create high fire danger. A
large area of elevated fire weather will occur in surrounding areas
where winds are not quite as strong. A similar pattern is expected
Saturday but with possibly greater coverage of critical fire weather
across western NM. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the Rio
Grande Valley with potential for expansion to areas around Gallup
southward. Meanwhile, low level moisture and instability in place
over eastern NM thru Saturday night will allow for greater coverage
of wetting rainfall. Much of eastern NM is very likely to pick up at
least 0.10" with high confidence for >0.50" east of the Pecos River
and localized amounts near 1" along the TX border.

The focus then shifts to widespread high fire danger Sunday. An
upper level storm system will move quickly northeast across the Four
Corners region with strong south-southwest winds spreading to all of
NM. Single digit humidity, deep mixing, above normal temps, and
receptive fuels with wind gusts of 50+ mph will yield critical to
locally extreme fire weather. The Fire Weather Watch was expanded to
more of central and western NM for Sunday. Eastern NM will likely
dry out rapidly Sunday but fire spread may be mitigated by recent
rainfall and a patchwork of greenup. Additional strong westerly
winds and very low humidity Monday will lead to more critical fire
weather for central and eastern NM. ERC values, greenup, and soil
moisture values will need monitoring to determine how rapidly fuels
may have dried out from Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  79  43  79  43 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  75  35  76  33 /   0   0   5   0
Cuba............................  74  39  76  40 /   0   0   5   0
Gallup..........................  75  33  75  31 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  73  36  74  37 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  78  35  79  33 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  73  36  74  38 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  76  44  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  73  39  74  40 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  78  35  78  38 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  82  42  82  40 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  68  35  69  35 /   0   0  10   0
Los Alamos......................  74  47  74  48 /   5   5  20   5
Pecos...........................  73  46  71  43 /  10  30  40  20
Cerro/Questa....................  70  42  72  43 /  10  20  30  10
Red River.......................  63  34  63  38 /  20  30  40  10
Angel Fire......................  65  36  66  34 /  20  30  40  20
Taos............................  74  38  75  38 /  10  20  30  10
Mora............................  69  43  68  40 /  20  40  50  20
Espanola........................  81  44  82  45 /   5  10  20   5
Santa Fe........................  75  45  75  48 /  10  10  30  10
Santa Fe Airport................  79  47  79  45 /   5  10  20  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  81  50  82  55 /   0   5  10   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  83  51  83  51 /   0   0  10   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  85  48  86  48 /   0   0   5   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  83  49  84  50 /   0   0   5   0
Belen...........................  85  45  85  44 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  85  48  85  50 /   0   0  10   0
Bosque Farms....................  84  45  85  45 /   0   0   5   0
Corrales........................  85  49  85  50 /   0   0  10   0
Los Lunas.......................  84  46  85  46 /   0   0   5   0
Placitas........................  81  49  80  51 /   0   5  10   0
Rio Rancho......................  83  49  85  50 /   0   0   5   0
Socorro.........................  86  48  87  48 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  76  47  76  48 /   5   5  20   5
Tijeras.........................  80  46  80  48 /   5   5  20   5
Edgewood........................  79  45  79  43 /   5  10  20   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  80  43  79  38 /   5  10  20  10
Clines Corners..................  74  44  72  41 /   5  20  40  10
Mountainair.....................  78  44  77  45 /   0   0  10   5
Gran Quivira....................  77  44  77  45 /   0   0  10   5
Carrizozo.......................  82  50  80  50 /   0   5  10   5
Ruidoso.........................  76  49  74  49 /   0  10  20   5
Capulin.........................  60  43  63  45 /  50  60  60  20
Raton...........................  70  45  69  44 /  40  50  40  20
Springer........................  73  47  69  44 /  20  50  50  20
Las Vegas.......................  72  46  69  43 /  20  40  50  20
Clayton.........................  60  48  66  52 /  40  80  70  30
Roy.............................  70  48  66  48 /  20  70  70  40
Conchas.........................  80  52  73  52 /  20  80  80  40
Santa Rosa......................  80  51  73  49 /  10  50  70  30
Tucumcari.......................  79  53  72  55 /  20  80  90  40
Clovis..........................  83  54  72  57 /  20  80  90  40
Portales........................  86  54  73  56 /  20  70  80  40
Fort Sumner.....................  85  54  76  53 /  10  70  70  30
Roswell.........................  89  60  86  57 /   5  30  40  20
Picacho.........................  85  51  83  48 /   5  20  30  10
Elk.............................  83  49  84  48 /   5   5  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for NMZ101-105-106-109-120>125.

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for
NMZ106.

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for NMZ106.

High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
NMZ212>215-220>229-239-240.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...42

Please note: The SYNOPSIS section will be terminated by the end of April.