North Hobbs, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

229
FXUS64 KMAF 071124
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
624 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 621 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

- Very hot temperatures between 10 to 15 degrees above normal are
  expected this weekend. Heat Advisories are in effect for
  Brewster and Terrell Counties this afternoon.

- There is a low (20-40%) chance of thunderstorms in the Davis
  Mountains and Eastern Permian Basin this weekend. A few of these
  thunderstorms could be strong to severe with a risk of large
  hail and damaging winds.

- A cold front brings much cooler temperatures to the region early
  next week. Thunderstorm chances will also continue through the
  middle of the week (generally 30-60% chances).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Lingering cloud cover from earlier thunderstorms is continuing to
move off to the east. Despite this clearing, continued southerly
winds and relatively high dew points keep everyone between 5 and 10
degrees above normal through the morning. Temperatures in the middle
60s and 70s are to be expected for most.

Behind the trough that brought us our weather on Friday, a weak area
of surface high pressure settles into the region. This corresponds
with an overall strengthening of the ridge across Northern Mexico.
As a result of these changes, expect afternoon temperatures ranging
from 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Most locations climb to near and
above the century mark. The hottest temperatures are anticipated
across Brewster and Terrell Counties where Heat Advisories are in
effect. While most locations remain dry this afternoon, at least
some thunderstorm chances remain. As another shortwave trough digs
across the Central Great Plains late this afternoon and evening
there is a low (20-40%) chance of thunderstorms. The main area that
may be impacted includes the Davis Mountains due to favorable
upslope flow. Another area may be across portions of the Eastern
Permian Basin, as a weak cold front slowly moves westward into the
area. Overall, thunderstorms will be very hit or miss. If any
significant thunderstorms develop there remains a least a low risk
of severe weather in the form of large hail and damaging winds.

Heading into Sunday, much of the same weather holds true across the
region. The morning starts warm once again, though perhaps a couple
degrees warmer than the previous morning. The same may hold true for
afternoon high temperatures as well. This could result in more
locations needing Heat Advisories tomorrow. Rain chances appear
limited, though the Davis Mountains maintain at least a low (20-40%)
chance once again. The good news is change is on the horizon as a
strong cold front begins to knock on our doorstep as we begin the
new week.

-Chehak

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Although this weekend will be hot, relief is on the way in the form
of a cold front! Sunday night, this boundary approaches the northern
Permian Basin. This allows some low thunderstorm chances to creep
back into the northeastern Basin (20-40%). Of course, with these
thunderstorm chances also comes the potential for some severe
weather given MUCAPE > 2000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear of 30-40 kts.
Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary threats.

By Monday, the front begins to make its way through our area,
pushing through much of the region that night/early Tuesday morning.
The good news is this will lower temperatures early next week. By
Tuesday, highs in the 80s and low 90s will be commonplace (except
for southernmost locations near the Rio Grande). Temperatures
Wednesday look to be even a degree or two cooler for most. However
the boundary, as well as an approaching shortwave trough and
upsloping easterly surface winds, will also provide sufficient lift
for thunderstorm development during the afternoons/evenings of
Monday-Wednesday. Chances generally range from 30-60% (up to 70% for
some locations), with the best chances currently in the Davis
Mountains and the northern Permian Basin. Surface dewpoints will be
in the upper 50s and low 60s for much of the area, and MUCAPE > 2000-
2500 J/kg along with 0-6 km bulk shear of 30-40 kts suggests severe
weather is once again going to be in play. Guidance also suggests a
few MCS`s will move north of our area during this timeframe. Outflow
boundaries from any of this potential activity would serve as
additional foci for severe weather concerns - this is something that
will be monitored closely. In any case, the severe threat will be
greatest Monday and Tuesday. Shear steadily decreases throughout the
beginning of the week, such that by Wednesday it becomes much less
favorable for organized severe weather (roughly 20-25 kts). After
this, the shortwave trough clears the area, winds become more
southerly/southeasterly, thunderstorm chances diminish (except in
the mountains of course), and temperatures begin to warm back into
the 90s for most everyone Thursday through the end of the period.

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Southeasterly winds
continue at MAF, INK, and FST. Winds are more light and variable
elsewhere as a weak surface high pressure moves into the area.
Western terminals develop a southwesterly winds this afternoon
before all terminals return to southeasterly winds this evening.
Afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible for eastern
portions of the area, but overall likelihood of aviation impacts
remains low confidence. This will continue to be monitored for
FST and MAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              100  73 103  68 /  20  20  10  10
Carlsbad                100  69 103  67 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                  106  76 105  76 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton           101  75 103  71 /  20  20  20  10
Guadalupe Pass           94  71  96  67 /   0   0  10  10
Hobbs                    97  67 101  63 /   0  10  10  10
Marfa                    96  67  96  66 /  20  20  30  20
Midland Intl Airport    100  74 101  69 /  20  20  10  10
Odessa                  101  74 101  69 /  20  20  10  10
Wink                    102  73 104  69 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for Central Brewster-Chisos Basin-Lower Brewster County-
     Terrell.

NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...91