North Hobbs, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

017
FXUS64 KMAF 040514
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1114 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1113 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

 - Slightly warmer temperatures return Wednesday, followed by
   cooler temperatures Thursday and Friday behind another cold
   front passing through on Wednesday night.

 - Increased chances of showers and thunderstorms Thursday through
   Saturday morning with the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 253 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

An upper level ridge of high pressure extends across west Texas and
southeastern New Mexico this afternoon while a surface trough of low
pressure extends over eastern New Mexico. A moist southeasterly to
southerly low level flow pattern has kept low level cloud decks in
place over much of our region this afternoon. Weak isentropic ascent
has even allowed for a few sprinkles/very light rain to develop over
portions of the Permian Basin, although nothing more than a trace of
precipitation has been noted.

Weak upper level ridging will generally remain in place over our
forecast area through Wednesday night, while an upper level low
gradually deepens across the Desert Southwest. A cold front
will push into eastern New Mexico and the Texas panhandle on
Wednesday before moving through most of our forecast area Wednesday
night into early Thursday morning. An overall lack of meaningful
moisture and ascent will support keeping a dry forecast intact
across our region through Wednesday night. Moisture in the low
levels of the atmosphere will keep skies mostly cloudy to overcast
at times with decks of low level cloud cover remaining in place
through tonight. We do expect a gradual decrease in cloud cover
during the day Wednesday as low level winds veer more westerly to
northwesterly ahead of the approaching front. Lows tonight will
generally range in the upper 30s to mid 40s across the region, with
highs on Wednesday warming back into the mid 60s to near 70 degrees
over most areas (except mid 70s to near 80 along the Rio Grande).
Lows Wednesday night trend slightly cooler in the 30s over northern
portions of the area behind the passing cold front, but otherwise
generally ranging in the 40s across the remainder of our region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 253 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

A slow moving upper-level trough currently positioned over the
Desert Southwest will play a key role in our weather within the long
term. This helps bring some rain chances back into the forecast and
keeps southwesterly flow over our area through Sunday, before it
gets replaced by another trough some time early next week. The exact
details on this second storm system remain uncertain at this time,
but there exists potential for it to usher in an even colder air
mass than the frontal system expected later this week.

Wednesday night`s cold front will have swept through most of the
area by Thursday morning, leaving temperatures in the 30s and 40s to
start the day. Afternoon highs will be in the 50s, with 60s near the
border. Moisture within the southwesterly flow and increased ascent
from both the upper-level trough and the cold front lead to slight
(15%-30%) rain chances for those in Southeastern New Mexico, the
mountains, and in the Upper Trans Pecos on Thursday.

Rain chances begin to spread across region overnight Thursday,
increasing to 20%-40% for almost everyone by Friday. Additional rain
chances arrive Saturday morning with 10%-30% PoPs spread south of I-
20. At the moment, rainfall totals look scant (< 0.1").

Early morning lows ranging in the 30s to mid 40s last through
Monday. Friday will be our coldest day in the period as cold air
advection continues and highs top out in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Highs warm into the 50s Saturday, then 60s and 70s return Sunday and
Monday ahead of our next storm system. More details to come on the
next system in the future...

-Lopez

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1113 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

Southeasterly winds shift to southwesterly by 13Z-16Z all
terminals other than INK and PEQ, and then northerly/northeasterly
by 21Z-00Z with cold front passage. Winds at both INK and PEQ
remain lighter and more variable than surrounding terminals
throughout period. Winds shift to easterly after 01Z-02Z at MAF
and FST. VFR VIS everywhere, any MVFR CIGs remaining east of MAF
and FST through 18Z. Decreasing high clouds over terminals after
18Z Wednesday into end of period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               60  45  67  40 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 58  40  64  41 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   60  44  70  48 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            61  43  69  43 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           53  43  61  41 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                    56  39  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    58  40  69  42 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     58  43  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   58  44  67  41 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     60  41  67  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...94