Los Alamos, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

777
FXUS65 KABQ 012359 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
559 PM MDT Sun Jun 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 549 PM MDT Sun Jun 1 2025

- Numerous to widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms move
  across northern and central NM through the day Monday. While
  mostly beneficial, heavy rainfall will reach up to an inch or
  more in localized spots threaten flash flooding in low-lying and
  poorly drained areas, and recent burn scars.

- Daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms continue Tuesday and
  Wednesday mainly over the northern and eastern halves of NM.
  This activity shifts focus more solely to eastern NM Thursday,
  Friday, and into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 219 PM MDT Sun Jun 1 2025

A modest crop of afternoon thunderstorms has developed along the
central mountain chain and west-central mountains today. Slow moving
storms beneath the upper level ridge axis are drifting east to
southeast off the Sangre de Cristo`s and Sacramento Mts away from
recent burn scars. A few storms moving off the Sangre de Cristo`s
will be chasing higher SBCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg over northeastern NM
and marginally higher bulk shear of only 10-20kts. One or two of
these cells could briefly turn severe producing severe wind gusts,
frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, and large hail near an inch as
they track east toward the TX line. Storms over west-central NM will
be mostly dry in nature threatening dry lightning.

Numerical model guidance is still in good agreement for the H5 low
moving ashore the northern Baja Peninsula this afternoon will tap
into a subtropical plume of moisture as it opens and moves over the
desert southwest tonight and Monday. Near record level PWATs of
~1.00" or more are forecast to be realized as numerous to widespread
showers with embedded thunderstorms across NM moving southwest to
northeast Monday. While widespread showers are expected to spread
across western and central NM first early Monday morning, numerical
model guidance is picking up on a vortmax likely producing a batch
of strong thunderstorms moving northeastward somewhere through
western or central NM. Shower and thunderstorm activity shifts focus
over the northern and eastern halves of the state by Monday
afternoon as a dry slot punches in behind the Pacific cold front
into southwestern and south-central NM. A second round of more
robust thunderstorm activity can be expected through central and
eastern NM where higher instability and shear will be present. The
SPC has maintained a marginal risk for a few of these storms
becoming severe for a brief period. This event will in the end yield
beneficial moisture across much of the forecast area, ranging from a
few hundredths to a few tenths of an inch. Localized amounts of
0.50" to 1.00" or more will be isolated to spots where more robust
thunderstorms train repeatedly over the same area. There is a
marginal risk these locally higher amounts could produce nuisance
flash flooding in low-lying and poorly drained areas, as well as
recent burn scars.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 219 PM MDT Sun Jun 1 2025

There`s a brief break in rain chances Tuesday morning ahead of a
second H5 low arriving from the Pacific. The first H5 low will send
down a backdoor cold front through eastern NM that will drop high
temperatures by 10 to 20 degrees. This will bring additional low-
level moisture to eastern NM that will result in afternoon
thunderstorm activity favoring the central mountain chain at minimum
where easterly upslope flow will reside. Aside from that, numerical
model guidance has widened its net with solutions regarding the
arrival of the 2nd H5 low. The 06Z and 12Z runs of the GFS in
particular (and the GEFS ensemble mean) has trended 6-12 hrs later
in the arrival of this 2nd system into the desert southwest. This in
turn would delay the onset of more widespread showers and embedded
thunderstorms across NM to later into Wednesday, if not Wednesday
night. A later end time for precipitation chances into Thursday
would result as well, and have massaged PoPs to more accurately
reflect this range of solutions. Given the complex dynamic
interaction the 2nd low can have with the 1st low departing, this
later arrival time and spread in the numerical model solutions is
reasonable. Another reason for the lowering of forecast confidence
for timing of the highest PoPs Tuesday thru Thursday.

Once this second H5 low moves through the area, drier
southwesterlies kick back into western and central NM to end the
work week. Low-level moisture from backdoor fronts and southerly
return flow from the Gulf will continue to swash west and east
across eastern NM keeping chances for afternoon thunderstorms going
over the part of the forecast area Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 PM MDT Sun Jun 1 2025

Scattered showers with isolated storms prevail around the area
now. Coverage will decrease in the east with the loss of daytime
heating, but increase in the west as moisture pushes in from the
southwest. Precipitation overnight will be more showery, however
there could be a few storms, particularly in the southwest
mountains. Multiple rounds of fast-moving gusty showers and storms
will push across the area from southwest to northeast tomorrow.
Since storms will be moving towards the northeast, most stronger
gusts will likely be out of the southwest, however outflow
boundaries could complicate things in the late afternoon. Storms
will be strongest during the mid to late afternoon and a few
stronger cells could produce medium-sized hail and strong wind
gusts to 55KT in central and eastern New Mexico.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 219 PM MDT Sun Jun 1 2025

No fire weather concerns as a significant surge of moisture arrives
into the state tonight and Monday. Widespread showers with embedded
thunderstorms will threaten burn scar flash flooding, but this will
be limited due to fast storm motions. Drier conditions push into
western NM Tuesday and Wednesday, but especially by Thursday and
beyond. A second system will bring another round of increased
moisture to the area Tuesday and Wednesday before truly drier
conditions and elevated fire weather returns to western NM to end
the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  60  73  54  83 /  40  70  50  30
Dulce...........................  47  69  44  77 /  30  80  70  40
Cuba............................  52  68  48  76 /  40  90  60  40
Gallup..........................  48  68  45  78 /  60  80  40  40
El Morro........................  50  65  49  74 /  60  80  30  40
Grants..........................  50  69  48  79 /  50  80  30  40
Quemado.........................  51  68  49  76 /  70  80  10  40
Magdalena.......................  57  72  54  78 /  50  80  10  40
Datil...........................  52  69  50  76 /  60  80  10  30
Reserve.........................  49  71  43  84 /  80  70   5  20
Glenwood........................  52  74  48  87 /  80  70   0  20
Chama...........................  46  65  42  71 /  30  80  70  50
Los Alamos......................  58  70  52  73 /  30  80  50  60
Pecos...........................  55  70  50  69 /  20  80  30  70
Cerro/Questa....................  53  69  48  69 /  20  60  50  60
Red River.......................  46  62  41  58 /  20  70  60  70
Angel Fire......................  42  66  40  62 /  20  70  40  70
Taos............................  49  72  45  72 /  20  60  50  60
Mora............................  50  72  45  64 /  20  70  30  70
Espanola........................  57  75  53  80 /  20  80  50  50
Santa Fe........................  59  70  52  73 /  20  80  40  60
Santa Fe Airport................  57  72  52  78 /  20  80  40  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  64  74  59  82 /  30  90  30  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  63  76  58  84 /  30  80  30  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  62  77  57  86 /  30  80  20  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  63  76  58  84 /  30  80  30  30
Belen...........................  59  79  56  85 /  30  80  20  20
Bernalillo......................  63  77  58  86 /  30  80  40  40
Bosque Farms....................  58  78  55  85 /  30  80  20  20
Corrales........................  63  77  58  86 /  30  80  30  30
Los Lunas.......................  60  78  56  85 /  30  80  20  20
Placitas........................  63  75  57  81 /  30  80  30  40
Rio Rancho......................  63  76  58  85 /  30  80  30  30
Socorro.........................  64  79  58  88 /  40  80  10  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  57  70  51  75 /  30  80  30  50
Tijeras.........................  57  72  53  78 /  30  90  30  50
Edgewood........................  54  73  50  76 /  20  80  20  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  50  74  48  77 /  20  80  20  50
Clines Corners..................  54  72  48  69 /  20  70  20  50
Mountainair.....................  55  72  51  77 /  30  80  20  30
Gran Quivira....................  55  73  50  77 /  30  70  20  30
Carrizozo.......................  62  76  56  82 /  20  70  10  20
Ruidoso.........................  57  71  53  75 /  20  60  10  20
Capulin.........................  51  77  45  55 /  10  50  40  60
Raton...........................  50  79  48  64 /  10  50  40  60
Springer........................  51  81  51  67 /  10  50  30  50
Las Vegas.......................  53  74  48  66 /  20  70  20  60
Clayton.........................  57  87  52  61 /  20  20  20  30
Roy.............................  55  81  52  66 /  20  50  10  30
Conchas.........................  60  88  58  73 /  20  60  20  20
Santa Rosa......................  60  83  57  72 /  20  70  10  30
Tucumcari.......................  62  90  58  70 /  20  60  30  10
Clovis..........................  63  88  60  73 /  10  70  40   5
Portales........................  62  89  58  77 /  10  70  40   5
Fort Sumner.....................  61  86  57  77 /  10  70  20  10
Roswell.........................  68  90  64  88 /   5  40  10   5
Picacho.........................  62  82  57  83 /   5  60   5  10
Elk.............................  59  78  53  84 /  10  50   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...16