Las Cruces, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

319
FXUS64 KEPZ 111123
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
523 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 522 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

 - Temperatures will continue to warm through the weekend, with
   hottest temperatures today through Sunday.

 - Very dry conditions, plenty of sunshine and no chance for any
   precipitation through the weekend and into early next week.

 - Winds generally light, with the exception of low-end breezy
   conditions this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Overall, no major changes from previous forecast packages with
fair weather conditions, light breezes (winds will become breezy
this weekend), and above average temperatures expected through
the period.

Upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to strengthen
it`s grip across the Desert Southwest today and Saturday. Again,
like aforementioned in previous discussions, this will ultimately
promote a substantial warming, lasting through the weekend.
Temperatures this afternoon will be 7-15 above averages, topping
out in the low 90s across the desert lowlands. Further warming
will occur on Saturday, with Saturday being the warmest day of
the period. Forecasted high temperatures today through Sunday will
rival record high temperatures with highs topping out in the low
to middle 90s each afternoon. Ridge axis will be over New Mexico
and West Texas on Saturday, when the hottest temperatures will
occur. High temperature on Saturday for El Paso is currently being
forecasted to be 97 degrees, which would obliterate the previous
record high of 90 degrees set back in 2018. In fact, temperatures
for El Paso could rival the monthly record of 98 degrees.
Temperatures will cool slightly heading into next week as a more
progressive-like pattern sets up across western CONUS.

Winds will be generally light to low-end breezy today as the
aforementioned high pressure aloft settles in, along with the lack
of any pressure gradients at the surface. Breaking of the morning
inversion along with the afternoon low to mid level thermals will
promote occasional gusts this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon.

Breezy winds return Saturday and especially Sunday as SWerly flow
aloft begins to nudge in from the west. The above average warmth,
very dry air, and breezy winds will induce Critical Fire Weather
Conditions this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period with skies SKC. Winds
light at 5-10 knots and generally VRB or out the NE. Winds will
become SEerly through the day at 6-11 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 244 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

No significant changes from previous forecast packages. Like
aforementioned in previous discussions, high pressure aloft regime
will settle in across the Desert Southwest today and tomorrow.
With this comes very dry air, daily Min RH values will drop to
3-15 percent each afternoon with poor overnight recoveries. Daily
high temperatures will be 7-15 degrees above the seasonal average
as well. This combination of very dry air and above average warmth
will quickly dry out the 10-100 hour fuels, we are already
starting to see that at most of RAWS sites with readings at/around
or above the 90th percentile for ERCs. Ongoing severe to extreme
drought also coming into play, especially with the dryness of the
larger timber fuels.

With high pressure aloft overhead through today, this upper flow
regime will promote weak pressure gradients at the surface,
ultimately offering light winds. Winds each afternoon and evening
will be predominately terrain and drainage influenced, remaining
light at 5-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. The sensible weather
conditions in place and state of the fuels will promote Elevated
fire weather conditions this afternoon.

Upper level ridge will flatten quickly on Sat/Sun and Monday as an
upper level trough races across the Northern Rockies. As a result,
the mid to upper level pressure gradient will tighten across the
region, orientated from SW to NE inducing SWerly flow aloft. This
will ultimately promote daily afternoon/evening occurrences of
lee-side low development over the Front Range and surface
troughing across New Mexico. Thus increasing surface and low-level
winds across the area. This, with medium to high confidence,
will bring the return of Critical Fire Weather conditions
Saturday into Sunday. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for
NMZ110 and NMZ111 for Saturday. A Fire Weather Watch will remain
in effect for all New Mexico fire weather zones.

Deep afternoon mixing will allow for Good to Very Good, and in
some instances Excellent smoke ventilation rates areawide through
the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  93  60  97  61 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            87  55  92  55 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               89  52  92  53 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               89  56  94  54 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               67  46  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    88  54  92  56 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              84  52  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   91  51  94  51 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                91  49  91  50 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       91  62  95  61 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                89  52  96  51 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             95  59  99  56 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               85  58  89  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   94  58  97  57 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             90  55  95  55 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           90  60  94  62 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            89  51  92  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    91  50  95  51 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 92  53  95  55 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                88  54  92  54 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  79  49  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                78  49  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 75  45  80  47 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  81  43  84  46 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                87  52  90  54 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                88  49  92  50 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             84  49  84  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   86  48  86  48 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    91  47  90  46 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               86  50  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  85  52  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   93  51  93  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  90  49  93  50 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           91  53  92  52 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               87  56  86  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Saturday for Southwest
     Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest
     Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South
     Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ-
     Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ-
     Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...38-Rogers