Carlsbad, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

725
FXUS64 KMAF 271010
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
510 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 509 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

- Seasonable temperatures and shower/storm chances expected into next
  week. Main threats with storms will be gusty winds, heavy rain,
  and small hail.

- Medium to high probability of rainfall amounts at least 0.25" to
  0.50" over much of the area by end of next week.&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

WV imagery this morning shows the upper ridge hasn`t moved much
over the past 24 hours, but is being undermined by a trough
muscling north through Florida. Closer to home, the upper trough
has moved east a bit, now residing more or less over Arizona, and
still sending perturbations through southwest flow aloft through
the region. Area radars show diurnal convection continues to
diminish. KMAF 00Z RAOB came in with a fairly respectable PWAT of
1.52"...above the 90th percentile of 1.35", and close to the daily
max of 1.56". NAEFS still suggests PWATS will remain at least 2
std devs or more above normal through 12Z Friday. KMAF radar bias
as of 05Z was a fresh 1.24, indicating that the tropical nature of
this airmass persists. MRMS estimates for the past 72 hrs
indicate abundant rainfall (up to over 4.75" in isolated areas)
has fallen west of the Pecos from the Davis Mountains up through
Chavez County. However, because the radar is overshooting the
efficient warm rain processes of this tropical activity, ground
truth comparisons suggest MRMS (even Pass 2) is pretty much trash,
and underestimating rainfall totals. Again, this will put one
heckuva dent in D4 drought conditions out west. Even Presidio
County, according to rainfall reports over the past 24 hours, is
faring better than what radar estimates suggest, and latest river
stages suggest some of this is making it into the Rio Grande.

Although the current flood watch looks good, and extends through
06Z Saturday, the synoptic pattern persists, and CAMs suggest
extending the watch another 24 hours. Again, and we`ll coordinate
w/the next shift on this. POPs remain relatively decent west of
the Pecos, and as long as the airmass remains tropical, flash
flooding will remain a concern.

Again, best chances for convection today will remain west of the
Pecos, and CAMs don`t bring it so far northeast as it did
yesterday. Temperatures look similar to yesterday`s, only
increasing thicknesses suggest they may be a degree or so warmer
overall.

Tonight, as w/the past few nights, convection will diminish to
the higher terrain out west. The LLJ is forecast to remain under
40 kts. However, decreased mixing promoting more efficient
radiational cooling will be negated by persistent debris/high
cloud, keeping overnight lows near to 5 F above normal and a
degree or so above this morning`s.

Saturday looks like a repeat of today, only increasing
thicknesses suggest highs will be a degree or two warmer. CAMs
suggest the bulk of convection will remain to the west, and
concentrated in the Davis Mountains. Again, the flood watch may
need to be extended through this period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

WV imagery this morning shows the upper ridge hasn`t moved much
over the past 24 hours, but is being undermined by a trough
muscling north through Florida. Closer to home, the upper trough
has moved east a bit, now residing more or less over Arizona, and
still sending perturbations through southwest flow aloft through
the region. Area radars show diurnal convection continues to
diminish. KMAF 00Z RAOB came in with a fairly respectable PWAT of
1.52"...above the 90th percentile of 1.35", and close to the daily
max of 1.56". NAEFS still suggests PWATS will remain at least 2
std devs or more above normal through 12Z Friday. KMAF radar bias
as of 05Z was a fresh 1.24, indicating that the tropical nature of
this airmass persists. MRMS estimates for the past 72 hrs
indicate abundant rainfall (up to over 4.75" in isolated areas)
has fallen west of the Pecos from the Davis Mountains up through
Chavez County. However, because the radar is overshooting the
efficient warm rain processes of this tropical activity, ground
truth comparisons suggest MRMS (even Pass 2) is pretty much trash,
and underestimating rainfall totals. Again, this will put one
heckuva dent in D4 drought conditions out west. Even Presidio
County, according to rainfall reports over the past 24 hours, is
faring better than what radar estimates suggest, and latest river
stages suggest some of this is making it into the Rio Grande.

Although the current flood watch looks good, and extends through
06Z Saturday, the synoptic pattern persists, and CAMs suggest
extending the watch another 24 hours. Again, and we`ll coordinate
w/the next shift on this. POPs remain relatively decent west of
the Pecos, and as long as the airmass remains tropical, flash
flooding will remain a concern.

Again, best chances for convection today will remain west of the
Pecos, and CAMs don`t bring it so far northeast as it did
yesterday. Temperatures look similar to yesterday`s, only
increasing thicknesses suggest they may be a degree or so warmer
overall.

Tonight, as w/the past few nights, convection will diminish to
the higher terrain out west. The LLJ is forecast to remain under
40 kts. However, decreased mixing promoting more efficient
radiational cooling will be negated by persistent debris/high
cloud, keeping overnight lows near to 5 F above normal and a
degree or so above this morning`s.

Saturday looks like a repeat of today, only increasing
thicknesses suggest highs will be a degree or two warmer. CAMs
suggest the bulk of convection will remain to the west, and
concentrated in the Davis Mountains. Again, the flood watch may
need to be extended through this period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Seasonable weather with daily shower/storm chances look to be the
story going into the extended. Deterministic and ensemble models
depict 500 mb geopotential heights above 588 decameters,
indicative of mid to upper ridging for this time of year, but with
core of ridging and thereby warmest temperatures remaining
farther to the north and west. 1000-500 mb thicknesses between 576
and 582 decameters and NAEFS ensembles showing near to slightly
positive anomalies in isoheights and isotherms from the lower to
mid troposphere are also supportive of the forecast maintaining a
seasonable temperature and air pattern. Lows will be kept a few
degrees above average due to radiational cooling being inhibited
by scattered to broken clouds and dew point temperatures in the
50s and 60s F from sustained humid upslope southeast winds over
much of the area. All in all this translates to highs in the 90s,
mid to upper 80s higher elevations, upper 70s to lower 80s in
highest elevations, and upper 90s to triple digits in the Big
Bend, with lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s. WPC Surface Analysis
depicts lee troughing near the area over central and southeast NM,
which along with mid to upper tropospheric lift from passing
short waves keeps shower/storm chances in the forecast as lee
troughing provides forcing for ascent near the surface and humid
upslope flow assists in development of convection, along with
heating of elevated terrain. Daily shower/storm chances farther
east than this past week keep dew point temperatures higher
overnight, but rainfall amounts as of now do not look to be as
high in the extended as earlier this week. By end of next week,
NBM shows 0.25" to 0.50" over much of the area and ensembles show
medium to high probability of at least 0.25" to 0.50" and spreads
0.25" to 0.75". Medium to high probabilities of 0.75" to 1.00"
over Presidio Valley into Culberson County are also apparent in
ensembles, but as of now uncertainty in where highest rainfall
amounts are remains uncertain. We will continue to monitor model
guidance during this continued warm and rainy pattern to see how
forecasts of timing, location, and magnitude of rainfall continue
to evolve.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 509 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours except in areas of
direct convection. Forecast soundings develop a widespread,
low-based cu field by late morning, w/plenty of mid/high cloud
knocking about. Best chances for convection this afternoon look
to be KCNM. Otherwise, light return flow will persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               96  73  97  73 /  10  10   0  10
Carlsbad                 89  70  91  70 /  50  30  20  10
Dryden                   97  74  98  75 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton            94  72  95  72 /  10  10  30  10
Guadalupe Pass           80  65  84  67 /  60  30  30  10
Hobbs                    90  68  92  70 /  30  20  10  10
Marfa                    85  64  84  64 /  50  20  60  20
Midland Intl Airport     96  73  97  74 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                   95  73  95  73 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                     94  72  94  72 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through late tonight for Chinati Mountains-Davis
     Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Reeves County
     Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Flood Watch through this evening for Eddy County Plains-
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...44