Carlsbad, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

231
FXUS64 KMAF 301914
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
114 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 105 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

- Strong winds continue today through the evening, with patchy
  blowing dust possible across the region.

- Well-above normal temperatures, mostly sunny skies, and dry
  conditions arrive on Friday and continue into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 105 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

WV imagery this afternoon shows the ejecting upper trough just north
of the Panhandles, and ejecting east.  Closer to home, westerlies
are increasing around the base of the trough, making for a gusty
afternoon with a heaping helping of BLDU.  The great scouring has
begun, w/dewpoints at KMAF dropping 25 F over the past 24 hours.
Despite a downslope warming component this afternoon, cooler air
behind a Pac front should keep highs a little cooler than
yesterday...at or a few degrees below normal.

The slow exit of the trough and momentum should keep winds going for
a few hours after sundown, and mixing should inhibit radiational
cooling, keeping overnight minimums at or slightly above last
night`s lows.

Friday, thicknesses increase on the backside of the trough in dry,
northwest flow aloft.  Afternoon highs will top out ~ 5 F above
normal, which could be the warmest temperatures these parts have
seen in a month or so.

Friday night, return flow resumes, and lows should be near to
slightly above tonight`s. Short-term grids remain dry.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 105 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

The beginning of the long term forecast (and February rather) begins
with temperatures you`d expect to see in the Springtime. Highs are
anticipated to be 10-20 degrees above normal and lows 5-15 degrees
above normal. Increasing geopotential thickness associated with a
mid-level zonal and ridging pattern supports these Spring-like
temperatures. Highs are forecast to be in the 70s and 80s, with lows
ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s for most. Some spots in the
Trans Pecos and along the Rio Grande could see lows in the low 50s.
Portions of the central and eastern Permian Basin may even see
temperatures in the low 50s on Wednesday and Thursday night. The
aforementioned ridging pattern is not favorable for the development
of clouds and precipitation. Thus, sunny skies and dry conditions
dominate the extended forecast.

-Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1048 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

MVFR/IFR visibilities due to BLDU are expected this
afternoon/evening in strong/gusty westerly surface winds. This
activity will diminish late this evening, and winds will veer a
little.  A few high clouds are anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               33  68  34  74 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 30  66  29  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   39  73  38  75 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            36  67  37  78 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           30  55  36  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    29  64  32  69 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    27  63  31  69 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     33  66  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   34  66  37  71 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     30  67  32  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening for
     Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains.

     Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for Andrews-
     Borden-Crane-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-
     Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-
     Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for Chinati Mountains-
     Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for Eddy County
     Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Blowing Dust Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for Central
     Lea-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for Southern Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...44