Artesia, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

148
FXUS64 KMAF 031802
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1202 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1138 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

 - Cooler temperatures today behind a cold front. Brief warmup on
   Wednesday, followed by cooler temperatures Thursday and Friday
   behind another cold front Wednesday night.

 - Increased chances of showers and thunderstorms Thursday through
   Saturday morning with the cold front and next approaching
   weather system.

 - Temperature rebound to above normal by Sunday afternoon, with
   dry conditions Saturday afternoon through Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 245 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

Behind the backdoor cold front today we expect continued cooler than
average temperatures at least a few degrees below normal, mid to
upper 50s and lower to mid 60s in warmer spots over Upper Trans
Pecos and southern Rio Grande basins, lower 70s in the Big Bend.
VIS/IR Sat this morning shows abundant low clouds over the area. NBM
grids indicate this will continue, although we expect increasing
ceiling heights throughout the day. Tonight with abundant low clouds
limiting radiational cooling and easterly winds having veered to
more southerly, warmer than average lows around 10 degrees above
average in the 40s, mid to upper 30s northern SE NM plains are
forecast. Wednesday, weak ridging aloft and at the surface along
with decreasing cloud cover from west to east is expected to result
in highs a few degrees above average for early December, with
widespread mid to upper 60s, lower 60s over highest elevations of
Guadalupes and Davis Mountains, and lower to mid 70s in Rio
Grande basins into southern Culberson County, southern parts of
the Upper Trans Pecos, Stockton Plateau, and Terrell County. Winds
will remain southerly before shifting to northerly later in the
day with another backdoor cold front moving into the CWA from the
northeast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 245 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

Wednesday night, an upper trough will be centered over Arizona,
leaving West texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow
aloft.  At the surface, a cold front is forecast to backdoor the
area, w/the latest NAM12 putting fropa at KMAF at ~ 01Z Thursday.

Unfortunately, this will result in highs Thursday afternoon
averaging around 5 F below normal.  On a better note, lift and
upslope flow with the front will combine with large-scale ascent
ahead of the trough to result in a chance of showers and
thunderstorms, mainly west and south Thursday/Thursday night.

Friday, although surface winds will begin veering to the east, CAA
will continue, shaving a couple of degrees off Thursday`s highs and
making Friday the coldest day this forecast.  The upper trough is
forecast to move a little closer to the CWA, and will combine with
upslope flow to maintain a chance of convection.  Unfortunately, QPF
looks paltry from here.  This activity will taper off to the south
Friday night.

Saturday, the upper trough begins to move through the region,
bringing an end to precipitation chances and a warming trend to West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  By Sunday afternoon, highs should
rebound back to ~ 6-8 F above normal.  Temperatures come down a
degree or so Monday with the approach of the next trough/front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

MVFR ceilings will continue at HOB for the next couple of hours with
low (20-25%) chances of ceilings briefly lowering to MVFR at CNM
and MAF. VFR conditions prevail early this evening at all sites. A
brief period of ceilings are expected to revert to MVFR at MAF
around 09Z (3:00 am) lasting through early tomorrow morning.
Southeasterly winds shift westerly to northwesterly by late
tomorrow morning, thanks to a cold front arriving in the region.

Lamberson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               61  46  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 59  41  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   61  45  70  49 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            62  44  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           54  43  62  41 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                    57  39  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    59  41  70  42 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     59  44  67  41 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   59  44  67  42 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     61  42  69  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...11