Anthony, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

016
FXUS64 KEPZ 010900
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
300 AM MDT Sun Jun 1 2025

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 -  Scattered showers and thunderstorms today and again on Monday.
    Showers and storms becoming isolated Tuesday and Wednesday,
    mostly over the mountains.

 -  Drier and warmer conditions expected after Wednesday.

 -  Stretch of heat beginning Friday and lasting at least through
    the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Jun 1 2025

Upper low now spinning just offshore of the northern Baja early
this morning. Deeper moisture mainly over Arizona and down the Baja
and far western Mexico. Strong dry slotting remains over the CWA.
That deeper moisture finally begins drifting up to the CWA by
late this afternoon and evening. Expect just isolated mountain
thunderstorms this afternoon with isolated storms beginning to
fill in the lowlands from south to north toward this evening.
Modest CAPE values and low shear environment suggest storms not
approaching severe. However with PWs approaching 1.00 or greater
this evening some storms could produce heavy rainfall.

With storms/clouds lasting late into tonight/Monday morning,
extensive clouds could inhibit convection the first part of
Monday. Upper low moves up near the Four Corners region by Monday
afternoon. High moisture continues into the afternoon before
tapering off in the evening. Higher CAPE values and decent shear
environment suggest Monday storms could approach or become severe.
But again morning cloudiness v.s. sun/heating becomes the critical
factor. This same battle will also effect high temps with up to 10
deg variance between the two scenarios.

Tuesday and Wednesday...upper low lifts out of area but new low
off the California coast moves over the northern Baja Tuesday and
opens into trough over northern New Mexico Wednesday. Thus can`t
rule out an isolated thunderstorm, though mostly limited to the
mountains.

Thursday through the weekend...drying continues with temperatures
heating up. By Friday, high temps will approach 100 deg across the
lowlands and Saturday and Sunday could move a couple of degrees
past 100. For now, hewed to the NBM MOS guidance for Sat/Sun, but
looking at NBM 50th percentile numbers, highs for the El Paso
metro area and the lower Rio Grande Valley could approach Advisory
(105 deg) levels. Still a bit early but something to watch.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 PM MDT Sat May 31 2025

Isolated showers continue across the region, but those showers will
be quickly dying off in the next few hours. Winds tonight will be
light from south or southwest. On Sunday we will see some low end
gusty southwest winds in the afternoon for a few hours. For clouds,
tonight we will see our mid and high ceilings slowly dissipate to
give us unlimited ceilings. Then mid and high clouds will again be
on the increase as we head into tomorrow afternoon and evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Jun 1 2025

Fire weather concerns remain low today and Monday as high humidity
and scattered/showers continue. High moisture content/ heavy rain
potential on Monday is of some concern for burn scar areas and
will have to be watched. Slight chance of mountain storms Tuesday
and Wednesday, but otherwise definite drying trend back to hot
weather for Friday and the weekend, along with fire conditions
becoming elevated again. Fortunately no significant non-
thunderstorm winds are expected.

Min RH: Lowlands 15-25% today and Monday, decreasing to 10-18%
Tuesday through Friday. Mountains 20-35% today, 35-50% Monday, and
then decreasing 15-30% Tuesday through Friday. Vent rates Monday
through Friday very good-excellent except Tuesday and Friday with
mostly good rates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  97  71  89  69 /  10  50  40  10
Sierra Blanca            91  62  86  61 /  20  40  40  10
Las Cruces               94  64  86  63 /  10  50  50   0
Alamogordo               96  65  85  64 /  10  40  50  10
Cloudcroft               72  50  64  47 /  30  40  70  10
Truth or Consequences    96  66  85  64 /  10  60  60   0
Silver City              86  56  77  55 /  30  60  60   0
Deming                   96  65  87  64 /  20  60  50   0
Lordsburg                92  64  83  63 /  30  60  60   0
West El Paso Metro       94  71  86  70 /  10  60  40   0
Dell City                95  64  88  62 /  10  30  50   0
Fort Hancock             97  66  92  64 /  20  50  40  10
Loma Linda               89  66  81  65 /  10  50  40   0
Fabens                   96  67  89  65 /  10  60  40  10
Santa Teresa             95  66  86  65 /  10  60  50   0
White Sands HQ           96  71  86  70 /  10  50  60  10
Jornada Range            95  63  85  62 /  10  50  60  10
Hatch                    98  64  88  63 /  10  50  60   0
Columbus                 96  68  88  65 /  20  60  40   0
Orogrande                94  65  84  64 /  10  50  40  10
Mayhill                  84  54  78  52 /  30  40  80  10
Mescalero                84  53  75  51 /  20  40  80  10
Timberon                 82  51  72  49 /  30  40  50  10
Winston                  88  53  77  52 /  20  60  80   0
Hillsboro                93  61  84  60 /  20  60  60   0
Spaceport                95  61  86  60 /  10  50  60  10
Lake Roberts             89  52  77  51 /  30  60  70   0
Hurley                   90  58  81  57 /  20  60  60   0
Cliff                    94  57  83  56 /  30  50  60   0
Mule Creek               89  53  78  52 /  30  60  60   0
Faywood                  90  61  80  60 /  10  60  50   0
Animas                   91  64  84  63 /  30  70  60   0
Hachita                  91  63  84  62 /  20  60  60   0
Antelope Wells           89  63  84  62 /  50  70  60  10
Cloverdale               84  61  78  60 /  30  70  70  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...17-Hefner