Anthony, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

449
FXUS64 KEPZ 270522
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1122 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 -  Scattered thunderstorms each afternoon and evening, becoming
    more isolated this weekend as overall coverage decreases. As
    usual, the best chances for thunderstorms will be over area
    mountains.

-   Storms will be capable of heavy rain and flooding, especially
    in the Sacramento Mountains, and near area burn scars.

-   Warmer temperatures over the weekend, lowland highs in the
    mid to upper nineties.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1055 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Satellite imagery shows a well-developed inverted trough over
northeastern Mexico, with the typical tongue of dry/subsident air
to its northwest, arcing from northeastern Texas into Coahuila and
Durango in Mexico, and a plume of monsoonal moisture stretching up
the Sierra Madre Occidental into southeastern 2/3rd of New
Mexico.

The inverted trough will actually drift east as westerlies at jet
stream level take over across the desert southwest. This will keep
us in the moisture plume, and away from the subsidence.

However, drier mid-level air will continue to seep in from
Arizona. This has helped steepen mid-level lapse rates the past
couple days, resulting in some stronger convection at times.
Friday looks to be more of the same, with PWATs of 0.80 to 0.90
inches across the Gila and Bootheel, and 1-inch PWs along the Rio
Grande in New Mexico, and 1.20 to 1.30 inch PWs across the Mesilla
Valley, Tularosa Basin, Sacramento Mountains, and EP/Hudspeth
Counties, boosted somewhat by the mid-level moisture, but also
higher dewpoints from the surface to around 700 mb.

So our heaviest rainfall rates potential will be over eastern
areas tomorrow, but will still be plenty high to present a flash
flood risk for the Trout Fire burn scar out west. Also, a rather
messy pattern at 500 mb will promote slow storm motions,
increasing the risk of flash flooding relative to the PWAT values
alone.

Most HREF members show a similar pattern tomorrow, with
thunderstorms starting in the higher terrain of the Gila and
Sacramentos, with activity following outflow boundaries into the
lowlands in the evening. Lowland rainfall chances will depend
largely on mostly-unforecastable outflow boundary interactions,
which despite being realistically portrayed in the CAMS, never
quote pan out exactly as shown. Chaos at its finest.

The real wildcard, as is so often the case, will be if we end up
with a leftover MCV and area of stable air tomorrow. Light showers
look like they`ll pull south of El Paso shortly, but linger over
eastern EP County and Hudspeth County well into the night. That
could be where our clouds and stable air hangs around tomorrow if
it can`t advect out of here or otherwise modify.

On Saturday, a weakness in the subtropical ridge will cause our
mid-level moisture plume to lean east, decreasing PoPs and storm
coverage, especially out west. PoPs on Sunday look particularly
confined to the Sacramento Mountains, but northerly mid-level flow
makes me a little nervous, as subtle disturbances can sneak in and
help trigger thunderstorms in what would otherwise look to be a
sort of "down day".

Moisture never really scatters out in the extended range, and
could improve towards mid-week.

In keeping with the new operations model being tested, NBM grids
were populated and left unchanged beyond Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1055 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Lingering showers will slowly diminish at ELP through the night,
with clouds hanging about, but ceilings well into VFR territory.

Otherwise, expect light and variable winds tonight, with
occasional gusts 15 to 20 knots from leftover outflow boundaries
in southern New Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms will be focused
over the higher terrain Friday afternoon, but will slowly try to
work their way into the lowlands, following outflow boundaries.
PROB30s carried for thunder given the lack of strong forcing,
mostly over New Mexico.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Low fire danger rest of the week due to increased moisture and
recent wetting rain. Light winds today with Fair smoke
ventilation. Min RH 20-30% across GNF, higher over LNF. Best
chances for storms over the forests between 12PM-4PM each
afternoon. Main concerns will be burn scar flash flooding and
erratic wind gusts.

Decreasing coverage in storms this weekend due to high pressure
aloft of drier conditions. GNF will become mostly dry (Min RH
down to 15-20%) with scattered afternoon thunderstorms limited to
LNF. Fire danger becoming Elevated again over GNF by Sunday. No
strong winds expected outside of thunderstorm outflows.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  71  89  71  93 / 100  20  30  20
Sierra Blanca            64  83  64  84 /  50  40  30  50
Las Cruces               64  87  64  90 /  60  20  40  10
Alamogordo               64  87  65  91 /  30  30  30  20
Cloudcroft               48  64  48  69 /  30  70  30  60
Truth or Consequences    66  89  67  93 /  20  30  40  10
Silver City              59  84  61  88 /  30  60  50  40
Deming                   65  91  66  94 /  50  30  30  10
Lordsburg                64  92  66  94 /  30  40  30  10
West El Paso Metro       68  87  71  89 / 100  30  30  20
Dell City                67  84  67  89 /  30  40  20  30
Fort Hancock             69  89  70  91 /  60  40  30  40
Loma Linda               64  79  64  83 /  90  30  30  20
Fabens                   69  87  68  91 / 100  30  30  20
Santa Teresa             68  85  68  89 /  90  20  30  20
White Sands HQ           69  86  71  90 /  50  40  30  20
Jornada Range            64  87  66  90 /  50  20  30  20
Hatch                    64  89  67  94 /  40  20  30  20
Columbus                 68  90  69  92 /  50  20  30  10
Orogrande                66  84  66  87 /  40  30  30  20
Mayhill                  53  74  54  79 /  30  60  30  60
Mescalero                52  74  52  80 /  30  80  30  60
Timberon                 50  71  51  76 /  30  50  20  40
Winston                  53  82  54  86 /  20  40  40  30
Hillsboro                60  87  62  92 /  30  30  40  30
Spaceport                62  87  63  91 /  30  20  40  10
Lake Roberts             55  87  56  89 /  30  60  40  40
Hurley                   59  87  61  90 /  30  50  50  40
Cliff                    61  94  61  97 /  20  40  30  20
Mule Creek               59  91  59  94 /  10  30  20  10
Faywood                  62  85  63  88 /  40  40  40  30
Animas                   64  92  67  94 /  30  30  30  10
Hachita                  63  89  65  92 /  50  30  40  20
Antelope Wells           64  89  64  92 /  50  30  30  20
Cloverdale               63  87  64  90 /  30  50  30  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for
     East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento
     Mountains Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains
     Below 7500 Feet.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...25