Albuquerque, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

353
FXUS65 KABQ 111726 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1126 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1116 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

- Warming temperatures and dry conditions will continue through
  the end of the week. Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees above
  normal and around record values for today and tomorrow. The
  hottest day will be Saturday with widespread 80s and 90s.

- Minor heat-related impacts are possible for those outside for
  an extended period of time without taking proper precautions.

- Breezy to locally windy conditions on Saturday and Sunday with
  stronger gusts for the central and northeast highlands. Single
  digit relative humidities and warm temperatures will also
  contribute to critical fire weather conditions, mainly for
  north-central areas.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 313 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

High temperatures will keep rising today and tomorrow, with multiple
records forecast to be broken around the state. Temperatures will
cool slightly for western and central areas on Sunday, but eastern
areas look to see another record breaking afternoon before a
backdoor cold front begins to sweep through during the evening.
Breezy to locally windy conditions are expected on Saturday and
Sunday, particularly along and east of the central mountain chain.
As a result, critical fire weather conditions are expected,
particularly for north-central areas. Heading into next week,
temperatures cool slightly, but still above average for western and
central parts of New Mexico. Chances for rain return midweek and
then again for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 313 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

The upper level ridge will continue to build over NM today with the
ridge axis over western NM by this afternoon. H5 heights climb to
584-586dam over the area which is ~2 standard deviations above
normal. Many locations across western NM will see record breaking
temperatures this afternoon. Meanwhile, eastern NM will continue to
feel the effects of yesterday`s backdoor front. High temperatures
will be around 5 to 12 degrees above normal, vs. highs up to 18
degrees above normal across the west. Moisture that arrived behind
the front will remain in place across eastern NM as well. There are
low chances (<15%) that sprinkles and/or virga showers will develop
along the moisture gradient just east of the Central Mountain Chain
this afternoon and early evening. Modest DCAPE values suggest that
there could be wind gusts upward of 35 mph or so with this activity
before it wanes around sunset. Another mild night in store with low
temperatures several degrees above normal.

H5 heights come down 2-3dam on Saturday as the ridge begins to
flatten in response to the trough crossing the northern Rockies near
the Canadian border. Temperatures will not change much across
western NM compared to today, but a deepening lee side surface
trough will result in westerly downslope winds across the east. Any
remaining effects of the front will be replaced by dry and breezy to
windy downslope conditions. The strongest winds are expected across
northeast NM with gusts around 35 to 45 mph. Temperatures will soar
to as much as 25 degrees above normal across the east, while
temperatures remain up to 18 degrees above normal across the west.
Many, many record high temperatures are in jeopardy across the
entire CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 313 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

The high pressure ridge of heat will finally break down on Sunday,
but not before it exhausts one more afternoon of record breaking
temperatures for eastern New Mexico. An upper level shortwave trough
digging into the northern Rockies will start to squash and shift the
ridge axis east. Pressure heights will fall throughout the state and
high clouds will begin to stream into western and northern parts of
the state. This will result in temperatures cooling a few degrees
compared to Saturday for most areas outside of the eastern plains.
With 500 mb heights between 580 and 584 dm over much of eastern New
Mexico (within the 90th percentile for this time of year according
to local sounding climatology), there is still very high confidence
for 90+ degree record high temperatures. One of the most significant
changes with this forecast package is that wind speeds for this
weekend have trended down considerably. The passage of this
shortwave trough will pick up wind speeds area wide, but the 700 mb
speed maxes of 45 to 55 kts looks to occur during the morning,
before peak heating will be able to mix them down to the surface.
Most guidance is in pretty good agreement with this downward trend in
wind speeds, giving greater confidence that we will remain below
Wind Advisory criteria. The strongest gusts look to occur along the
central mountain chain, co-located with the stronger mid level-
flow. A sub 1000 mb sfc low that develops over the TX-OK panhandles
during the afternoon will help create some stronger gusts for the
central and northeast highlands, but they shouldn`t exceed 40 kts.
These downsloping winds will also aid in warming up the environment
for the eastern plains, with Roswell, Portales, and Clovis all
forecast to break records.

Another variable for Sunday will be the timing of the backdoor cold
front for eastern New Mexico. Guidance has trended towards a quicker
passage, with winds speeds starting to shift northeast near Clayton
by late afternoon. Therefore, not as confident in temperatures
soaring to record levels for parts of northeast New Mexico. In fact,
bumped temperatures down a couple degrees for Clayton and Capulin,
anticipating that an earlier wind shift will inhibit diurnal
heating. The weaker winds and backdoor front will also limit the
extent of the critical fire conditions into eastern New Mexico. The
highest confidence areas will be along the Sangres and adjacent
highlands where winds will be strongest. The front will sweep
through the rest of eastern New Mexico overnight and into Monday
morning. Temperatures will cool to below average for eastern areas,
while the rest of the state will be just at or above normal for this
time of year.

Long range ensemble guidance has come into pretty good agreement for
the upper level pattern for next week, increasing confidence in
another warm and mostly dry period of weather for the first half
of the week. Slight ridging looks to build over the Desert
Southwest ahead of a deepening low pressure system off the
southern California coast. Within this ridge, an embedded
shortwave trough looks to bring in increased moisture from the
Pacific for Tuesday and Wednesday. Moisture at the surface will be
meager so wetting rain will be isolated. But mid and high clouds
look to create some virga showers throughout the region during the
afternoon. Things then look to get interesting late next week as
the SoCal low approaches with much more moisture content,
increasing chances for rain areawide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1116 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Overall tranquil weather will continue over the next 24 hrs for
the vast majority of the region. A couple high-based showers with
gusty winds may develop along the east slopes of the central mt
chain after 4pm then shift eastward into the nearby high plains
thru sunset. The greatest risk will be east of Raton and Ruidoso.
Skies will clear all areas overnight with light surface winds. An
area of LLWS may develop between Roswell and Clovis after midnight
as southerly winds strengthen aloft ahead of the next system for
Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 313 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

A strong upper level ridge will strengthen over NM today. Record
high temperatures are expected for much of western NM and humidity
values will plummet below 10% for 5 to 10 hours. Eastern areas will
remain slightly more moist in the wake of yesterday`s cold front
with min RH values dropping into the 20% range. A few southerly
breezes will be noted across eastern NM as well.

All eyes turn to the weekend. On Saturday, the upper level ridge
will flatten slightly, allowing a lee side surface trough to deepen
across eastern CO. Westerly winds will be the rule areawide, with
the strongest winds across northeast NM where gusts will be between
35 and 45 mph. Any moisture across the east will be a memory by
Saturday afternoon. 6 to 12 hours of single digit RH are expected
across western NM and up to 8 hours across eastern NM. Additionally,
very unstable conditions will be present as 700-500mb lapse rates
approach 9.6C/km with mixing heights topping out around 500mb.
Confidence is high that critical fire weather conditions will be met
across northeast NM and the Fire Weather Watch will be upgraded to a
Red Flag Warning. Across west central NM, confidence is lower that
wind speeds will be strong enough to meet criteria for 3+ hours,
therefore have elected to leave the Fire Weather Watch in place.

Models are not as bullish regarding wind speeds on Sunday. Best
chances for winds meeting critical criteria look to be across the
Sangre de Cristo Mountains and adjacent areas southward across the
Central Highlands. Elsewhere, wind speeds may be just shy. Another
factor is the timing of a backdoor cold front into northeast NM.
Models have sped up this feature, which may now push into northeast
NM Sunday afternoon. One thing that has not changed, is how dry it
will be. Between 6 and 16 hours of single digit RH is expected on
Sunday for all but the highest elevations of the northern mountains.
Very unstable conditions will also persist. Will issue a Fire
Weather Watch for areas where confidence is highest that winds will
be strong, but additional areas may need to be added later.

The aforementioned front will continue to push through the plains
Sunday night, and through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain
Monday morning. Cooler temps and higher humidity expected for
eastern NM Monday, but dry conditions will persist across the west.
A weak system will cross northern NM on Tuesday and may bring drier
shower activity with gusty winds to the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  83  42  83  45 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  78  34  79  35 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  77  40  80  39 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  82  31  83  35 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  79  38  78  40 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  82  33  82  36 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  80  41  81  42 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  80  51  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  79  44  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  84  36  85  38 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  88  38  87  39 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  71  36  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  74  53  77  51 /   5   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  77  44  80  47 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  73  41  76  40 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  62  33  64  38 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  69  26  71  35 /   5   0   0   0
Taos............................  76  34  79  35 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  73  40  78  43 /   5   0   0   0
Espanola........................  82  44  86  44 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  76  47  80  46 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  80  43  84  42 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  82  53  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  84  52  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  86  46  89  48 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  85  50  88  51 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  87  46  90  48 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  84  49  88  50 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  86  44  89  46 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  85  47  88  48 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  85  44  88  46 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  81  52  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  83  51  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  88  52  92  54 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  77  51  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  79  51  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  79  49  82  47 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  81  36  84  40 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  76  44  79  44 /   5   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  80  49  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  79  46  83  47 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  82  52  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  77  52  81  53 /   5   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  76  43  83  45 /  10  10   0   0
Raton...........................  79  39  86  43 /  10  10   0   0
Springer........................  79  40  87  43 /  10  10   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  75  43  81  48 /  10  10   0   0
Clayton.........................  78  49  89  52 /   5   0   0   0
Roy.............................  75  46  85  49 /  10  10   0   0
Conchas.........................  82  49  93  52 /  10  10   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  79  48  90  53 /  10  10   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  81  52  92  53 /   5   5   0   0
Clovis..........................  80  50  91  52 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  81  49  92  51 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  81  50  93  54 /   0   5   0   0
Roswell.........................  85  52  96  54 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  82  50  92  54 /   5   0   0   0
Elk.............................  81  51  88  55 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ104-121-
123.

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for NMZ105-109.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for NMZ121>123-125.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...42

Please note: The SYNOPSIS section will be terminated by the end of April.