Trenton, New Jersey 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

726
FXUS61 KPHI 071039
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
639 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly works its way across the region today, and
then weak low pressure passes through the region this evening.
Weak high pressure builds in from the north tonight, then lifts
north of the area Sunday as another area of low pressure passes
through from the south Sunday night through Monday morning.
Another cold front passes through the region Tuesday through
Tuesday night. High pressure returns for Wednesday and Thursday.
Another front may approach on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A stagnant and humid airmass is in place ahead of a cold front
approaching from the west. Fog and low stratus will continue to
develop across the region.

That cold front slowly tracks east this morning and will work
its way across the region into this afternoon. Showers will
develop over the region, and there may be some scattered
thunderstorms as well. Although temperatures will be cooler
today than they were on Friday with highs in the 70s to near 80,
it will be fairly humid with surface dew points well in the 60s
and around 70. Clouds should break up a bit this afternoon, but
weak low pressure will develop on that front as it passes
through, and this will bring a round of showers and
thunderstorms to the area this afternoon and early evening. SB
CAPE values will be 1000 to 1500 J/kg with 35 to 45 kt of 0-6 km
Bulk Shear. Some thunderstorms will be strong to severe, but
SPC has cut back the Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) for severe
weather to extreme southern Delaware.

Any convection tapers off this evening. Another warm and muggy
night on tap with fog and stratus developing with dew points in
the low to mid 60s and lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure, likely the remnants of an MCS that will impact
the Midwest Saturday night, approaches the Mid-Atlantic Sunday
morning. This will push a warm front north through the region
during the day, and then showers and thunderstorms develop once
again in the afternoon and evening. Models indicating this could
be a potentially low CAPE/high shear environment as the highest
SB CAPE values will be over Delmarva with 500 to 750 J/kg and
less than 500 J/kg elsewhere, but 0-6 km Bulk Shear will be
upwards of 40 to 45 kt. SPC has a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) for
severe weather mainly south of a line from Reading to Trenton
to Toms Rover. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat,
though with PWATs in excess of 1.5 inches, cannot rule out heavy
rain and localized flooding. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid
to upper 70s.

Showers and thunderstorms taper off Sunday night, and then high
pressure noses in from the north.

Conditions should be dry most of the day Monday, but another
upper trough with a strong surface cold front moves through the
Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley during the day. Some
shortwave energy spinning off ahead of that trough may trigger
some afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, but the
bulk of the activity holds off until late Monday night as that
front gets closer, and activity will mainly be focused on the
far western areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Another active weather day on tap for Tuesday with showers
likely with a chance for thunderstorms as low pressure develops
on that front and moves through the region during the day. The
front crosses the region Tuesday night, and then high pressure
builds in from the north and west.

Dry weather on tap for Wednesday and Thursday with highs
climbing through the 80s. Friday should be dry, but another
frontal boundary will gear up to make a run at the area. Highs
may approach 90 on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...IFR/MVFR in fog, stratus, and SHRA this morning, then
CIGs gradually improve to VFR this afternoon. However, another
round of TSRA are possible, and if a TSRA passes over a given
terminal, sub- VFR conds are likely. Given low confidence on a
TSRA passing over a terminal, will carry VCTS for the late
afternoon/early evening hours. Light S winds this morning,
becoming W 5 to 10 kt by this afternoon. Low confidence.

Tonight...Sub-VFR in fog and stratus. Light N-NE winds. Low
confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday through Sunday night...VFR initially Sunday, then sub-
VFR in SHRA/TSRA Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.

Monday through Tuesday...VFR Monday, then sub-VFR in SHRA/TSRA
Monday night and Tuesday.

Wednesday through Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for today for the ocean
waters as seas will build to around 5 ft. Winds will be out of
the south to southwest at around 10 kt. Winds turn NE around 10
kt tonight with 3 to 4 ft seas.

VSBY restrictions in fog this morning, then in showers and
thunderstorms later this morning and possibly again this
afternoon and evening.

Outlook...

Sunday through Tuesday...Sub-SCA conditions. VSBY restrictions
and locally higher winds and waves in showers and thunderstorms
Sunday afternoon and Sunday night, then again on Tuesday.

Rip Currents...

For Saturday, the onshore swell increases to 3-5 feet with a medium
7-9 second period. Additionally, some longer period waves may be
embedded in the swell. Breaking waves in the surf zone of 2-3 feet
are expected as a result. Winds will be around 5-10 mph out of the
southwest to west-southwest. Due to the increasing and potentially
multi-period swells, there is a MODERATE risk for the development of
dangerous and life threatening rip currents for all beaches on
Saturday.

For Sunday, the wave heights will diminish slightly but the flow
will turn more onshore. There will continue to be a medium period
swell around 7 to 9 seconds with some longer period wave groups as
well continuing. For these reasons, a MODERATE risk of rip currents
will continue.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...Fitzsimmons/MPS