Paterson, New Jersey 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

379
FXUS61 KOKX 070110
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
910 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains offshore into Monday. Weak low pressure
passes nearby Monday afternoon into Monday night. A cold front
approaches Tuesday and moves over the area Tuesday night. The
front likely stalls nearby the rest of the week leading to
unsettled conditions, potentially into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Warm and increasingly muggy conditions are expected tonight as
high pressure remains offshore. SW flow will advect
increasingly higher dew points through the night and help
increase lower level moisture. Low clouds and some fog are
possible overnight, especially the eastern half of the area
and closer to the coast. There should otherwise be increasing
clouds through daybreak. Conditions will remain dry as there
should be no forcing for any showers. Lows will be in the upper
60s inland to lower/mid 70s near the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Showers and possible thunderstorms late Monday morning into
  Monday evening, especially in the vicinity of the NYC metro,
  NE NJ into Lower Hudson Valley, could produce locally
  torrential downpours. Localized flash flooding is possible
  from any of these showers/storms.

* Warm and humid conditions Monday and Tuesday with max heat
  indices in the lower 90s Monday and mid to upper 90s on
  Tuesday.

* Showers and thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon and
  evening with a continued chance of locally heavy downpours.

The main concern on Monday will be the development of showers and
possible thunderstorms late morning into the afternoon. The
extratropical remnant circulation of Chantal will likely track over
the Delmarva in the afternoon and then offshore Monday evening and
night. It should be emphasized that the circulation will no longer
be tropical, but leftover tropical moisture will be present
across the Northeast. This moisture will act on the sea breeze
boundary as well as some mid level energy to promote the
development of showers and a few thunderstorms. PW is quite
high, from 2.00-2.25 inches. There is some question to the
amount of instability, but model soundings indicate tall and
relatively skinny CAPE, which is common in more tropical air
masses. Freezing levels look to average around 15 kft as well,
supportive of efficient/warm rain processes. The 12z CAM`s all
signaled convective development across portions of NE NJ into
the Lower Hudson Valley, potentially into the NYC metro.
Elsewhere, showers are possible but coverage looks to be lower
and could just be isolated. No flood watch has been issued at
this time, but WPC has forecast a marginal risk of excessive
rainfall across NE NJ, NYC metro, and the Lower Hudson Valley.

Basin averaged rainfall amounts around one quarter of an inch
possible with some local areas receiving 1-2 inches with higher
amounts. Some locations may see little to no rainfall through
Monday evening.

Focus for showers shifts to the eastern part of the area Monday
night with the weak wave of low pressure passing to our south.
It appears most of the coverage should be offshore, but cannot
rule out some showers or isolated thunderstorms across portions
of Long Island or even southeast Connecticut.

For Tuesday, a cold front slowly approaches from the north and
west. Ahead of the front, tropical moisture will linger with
PW around 2 inches. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to
develop in the afternoon and evening along and ahead of the
front from the NYC metro on NW. This activity will then slide
eastward in the evening and at night. The main concern from this
activity will once again be torrential downpours and localized
flash flooding. WPC has forecast a marginal risk of excessive
rainfall throughout on Tuesday. An isolated severe thunderstorm
is also possible Tuesday afternoon/evening, and SPC has much of
the area in a marginal risk.

No heat advisories have been issued at this time for Monday and
Tuesday. Temperatures have continued to trend slightly lower for
Monday, likely due to increasing cloud cover and earlier timing
of convection. Highs looks to range from the mid/upper 80s with
max heat indices in the lower 90s. It will be warmer on Tuesday
as highs should be in the upper 80s/lower 90s. There is still
some question to the amount of cloud cover and how high dew
points will be in the warmest part of the day. There are hints
at the flow becoming more SW-W which could lower dew points a
bit. Heat indices should be higher, in the mid/upper 90s.
Have held off on the issuance of a heat advisory for Tuesday
since this is just a one-day occurrence, and there is little to
no coverage of heat indices above 100.

The front moves over or just east of the area Tuesday night. The
front may begin stalling nearby, which could promote continued
showers/storms for the eastern half of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The NBM was generally followed given the unsettled nature of the
pattern.

A stalled front south of the area on Wednesday will remain in
the general vicinity through the end of the week and into the
weekend. High pressure over the western Atlantic will allow for
the persistent advection of moisture over the front and into the
area through much of the week. This will lead to the
development of scattered showers and storms through much of the
middle and end of the week, though storms are generally more
likely in the afternoon and early evening hours with the
presence of daytime heating.

Additional energy in the flow approaches the area by the end of
the week and may result in another round of showers and
storms, though guidance has been backing off on high pressure
building in thereafter. Unsettled conditions may persist through
the weekend.

Despite the ample cloud cover and general unsettled conditions
this week, temperatures should be right around average for
this time of the year with highs each day in the lower/mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will remain offshore, while weak low pressure
passes to the south Monday afternoon into Monday night.

VFR through this evening, then IFR/LIFR cigs should develop late
tonight. Improvement back to mostly VFR on Monday, however
showers with a chance of thunderstorms starting at around
noontime could bring lower flight categories at times.

S winds are still up at KJFK at 15-20G25kt. Elsewhere winds are
S-SW mostly around 10 kt at the other metro and coastal
terminals, and light inland. Winds should slowly diminish
overnight, then become SSE-S daytime Mon either side of 10 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

AMD possible to adjust timing of lower cigs late tonight into
Mon morning.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday night: MVFR/IFR cigs likely to spread inland from the
coast.

Tuesday: Improvement to VFR by late morning, then afternoon
showers likely with chance of tstms especially from the NYC
metros north/west, with flight cat lowering to MVFR or IFR.
Gusty winds also possible in stronger storms.

Wednesday through Friday: Afternoon and evening showers/tstms
possible each day, with brief MVFR or IFR cond.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A few gusts close to 25 kt are possible on the ocean this
evening. Otherwise, conditions will remain below SCA levels on
the waters through Monday. Seas begin building Monday night
into Tuesday and may approach 5 ft east of Moriches Inlet into
Tuesday night from a SE swell. Generally weak flow will result
in sub-SCA conditions on all waters through at least Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Locally torrential downpours are possible late Monday morning
into Monday evening, especially across NE NJ, NYC metro, and
Lower Hudson Valley. This activity could produce localized flash
flooding and WPC has this area in a Marginal risk for excessive
rainfall. The risk for locally torrential downpours and
localized flash flooding remains possible on Tuesday for the
entire area. WPC has maintained a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall for Tuesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The rip current risk for all beaches will be moderate both
Monday and Tuesday. Surf heights around 4 ft are likely over the
period, but may increase to near 5 ft by Tuesday, especially at
the NYC, Nassau and western Suffolk beaches.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005-009.
     Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Monday for CTZ005-
     009.
NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075-
     176-178.
NJ...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/MW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...DS/MW
HYDROLOGY...DS/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...