Manchester, New Hampshire 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

937
FXUS61 KGYX 230819
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
419 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal storm reminiscent of fall continues to lash eastern
New England this morning. The heaviest precipitation has moved
Downeast, but a band of rain remains arcing from Moosehead Lake
down to Block Island Sound. This will gradually weaken today but
showers will remain a threat into at least the first half of
Saturday. At the same time the strongest winds have weakened,
but it will remain breezy today to go along with temperatures
hovering near 50 degrees. It will take until Sunday before we
get some slow improvement to the weather and temperatures. It
will be much warmer and brighter by the time we reach Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The strongest forcing has moved into Downeast ME this
morning...with the deformation banded precip pivoting and
weakening over the western ME mtns. PoP will gradually diminish
from this point forward thru the day...as will the threat of
heavy precip.

Perusing the webcams in the lower elevations of the mtns and I
do not see any evidence of snow this morning. Based on
temps...snow is likely confined to elevations above 2500 ft. I
do not anticipate temps to cool any further...so this is
probably going to be the lower limit of snowfall today. However
the high peaks will still feel like winter today...with wind
chills in the teens and single digits.

Showers will continue today...becoming a little more widespread
in coverage this afternoon during peak diurnal heating. Record
cold high temps are a little bit cooler today than
yesterday...so it will be a little bit harder to break those
records. However it will be closer...with readings across much
of southern NH and southwestern ME struggling to climb out of
the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Tonight the low pressure will drift into New Brunswick. So while
the steady rain will have come to an end...showers will remain a
possibility thru the overnight. As the upper trof axis swings
into the area there may be a more focused area of shower
activity across southern NH and southwestern ME that slowly
crosses the region into Sat morning. I have an area of likely
PoP to reflect this...but otherwise showers should be mostly
chance PoP/scattered in nature as low fills and cuts off.

Temps will remain fairly steady overnight given all the cloud
cover and lack of any real advection. The same story goes for
Sat...where lack of significant diurnal heating will keep temps
well below normal. But there should be enough late breaks in
clouds near the coast and over parts of southern NH to climb
into the mid 50s to near 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Long term update...Unsettled weather continues Sat into Sun but
improvement in generally foreseen Sunday afternoon and Monday
even though some showery weather will still be possible. The
midweek looks better with highs likely returning into the 70s
for most. 01z NBM has been blended into the going forecast and
results in little departure from these general ideas.

Overview:
Some wraparound showers possible on Saturday as a low moves
northeastward. A quick moving shortwave moves southeasterly over
the northeast, bringing a chance to see an isolated shower or
two over New Hampshire Sunday. Skies clear for the first half of
next week, though a diurnal shower or two can`t be ruled out
across western NH. Towards the end of the week, two upper-level
lows merge over New England. The upper-level lows could bring
more unsettled and cooler weather next weekend.

Details:
Low pressure retreats to the northeast through the day
Saturday. Continued overcast skies will keep high temperatures
cool, with 50s likely across NH and western ME. Wraparound
convective showers are likely as the environment shows a small
layer of low-level instability, with ~50J of CAPE up to about
800mb/7000ft. Light winds across the vertical profile should
make showers move southeasterly, and should continue through
Saturday evening. Light northwest flow should allow for cool
lows Saturday night, with lows in the 40s.

Skies start to clear out on Sunday, as high pressure moves in. The
clearing skies should also allow for a noticeably warmer day,
high temperatures make it into the low 60s for most. A weak
shortwave from the northwest will bring a chance to see an
isolated shower or two in the afternoon. Skies then continue to
clear out Sunday night. Calm winds and clear skies will allow
for radiational cooling, with lows again in the mid 40s.

Temperatures look to warm in the first-half of next week, with upper-
level ridging moving in from the west. A few diurnally-driven
showers remain possible in the afternoons, though Monday-Wednesday
should be dry and mostly clear for most. Generally looking at upper
60s and lower 70s, though Tuesday is forecast to be the warmest day
of the three, with low to mid-70s.

Towards the end of next week, two upper-level lows arrive in New
England. One comes from the west, with unsettled weather arriving on
Thursday. This low could merge with another upper-level low from the
north on Friday. The two upper-level lows over the area next
weekend may suggest that another wet and cool weekend is on tap.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...Widespread MVFR conditions with pockets of IFR
developing this morning. Northeast gusts of 25 to 30 kt remain
possible for a few more hours along the coast. Much of the
steady rain has moved inland at this hour...and will continue to
become more showery thru the day. As winds turn more
northwesterly IFR conditions should scatter out and become MVFR
once again. That likely continues for much of the night and into
Sat before improvement to VFR.

Long Term...
Ceilings and visibility likely improve during the day Saturday, as a
low moves out of the area. Mostly VFR is expected afterwards through
the first half of next week as high pressure moves in from the
west.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...The strongest winds have lifted northeast of the
waters but gales continue across all marine zones at this hour.
Winds will slowly become more northwesterly today and will
remain gusty in the afternoon. Seas will take longer to diminish
after building over 15 ft outside the bays. SCA conditions will
likely continue for most of tonight.

Long Term...
Seas of 2-5ft are expected Saturday, diminishing to 2-3ft by Sunday
morning. Northwest winds of 8-12kts are likely through the weekend,
diminishing through the day Sunday. Fair marine conditions are
expected through the first half of next week, as high pressure moves
in.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With strong low pressure in the Gulf of ME seas have built to
over 15 ft over some parts of the coastal waters. This is
driving a storm surge near 2 ft. While the morning high tide is
the lower of the two today...water levels may still approach
action stage with surge over 2 ft. Some splash over is possible
during this morning tide.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until noon EDT today for ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Legro
SHORT TERM...Legro
LONG TERM...Ekster/Palmer
AVIATION...Legro
MARINE...Legro