Dover, New Hampshire 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

880
FXUS61 KGYX 162237
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
637 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and breezy with mountain snow showers into Thursday.
Warmer conditions return Friday and Saturday and so does the
chance for showers. A cold front crosses Saturday night into
Sunday, with a return to drier conditions into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
630 PM Update...Little change to the going forecast this
evening. Everything looks to be on track with continued snow
showers in the mountains and variable cloudiness and gusty winds
downwind of the mountains to the coastal plain.

Previously...

Broad troughing and cyclonic flow is in place across the
Northeastern US with the center of a stacked low pressure over the
Canadian Maritimes. Multiple shortwaves moving through will produce
periods of increased rain and snow showers across northern areas and
in the mountains through tonight. Downwind of the mountains,
mainly just mostly cloudy to overcast skies the rest of the day
today with steep lapse rates and sufficient low-level moisture,
but with unblocked flow it`s possible there will be a few light
showers. Wind gusts in general should stay in the 25 to 35 mph
range, but these will start coming down this evening.

Winds continue to ease tonight but are expected to stay up
enough to keep the boundary layer mixed. I`ve used more of the
raw model output for temps which puts lows in the 30s, except
20s possible across the north. Mostly cloudy skies hold through
the early part of tonight before coming partly cloudy outside of
the mountains

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure continues to sit over the Canadian Maritimes on
Thursday, which will produce similar conditions to today in that
it will be breezy again with mountain rain and snow showers.
The low levels do dry out through the morning and afternoon
which will result in a mostly sunny day south of the mountains
and gradually end the precipitation in the mountains.
Temperatures are expected to be a couple of degrees higher than
today with high reaching the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Skies stay mostly clear going into Thursday night, and most areas
are expected to decouple as high pressure builds in. With favorable
radiational cooling conditions, I have blended some cooler MOS
into the forecast putting most places in the 20s for lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Overview: Low pressure moves north of the Great Lakes Friday
night bringing New England into a warm sector. Additional
disturbances will move into this region of low pressure, keeping
the mention of showers through the first half of the weekend.
The low is slow to advance east, passing a cold front through
northern New England late this weekend. Despite the window for
precipitation Friday night through Saturday night, forecast
rainfall amounts are low. High pressure returns to the area for
early week.

Details: A sunny start to Friday as high pressure exits the
East Coast and return flow increases. Clouds will tend to
thicken and lower in the afternoon. It will be another dry day,
with RH values possibly falling into the teens before surface
moisture increases in the evening. This low level dryness will
help delay shower onset further, but these begin making their
way into the region late afternoon into the evening.

Low pressure will be deepening across the Great Lakes with
initial showers pushing into northern New England along a warm
front. Strong ridging to the east will prevent the main cold
frontal passage until later in the weekend. This leaves much of
the area in a warm regime with isolated to scattered showers for
much of the area. While total QPF has varied in ensembles for
the coast, interior, and foothills...QPF has been more
consistent across the mountains. Thus have kept mention of the
likely chance for showers here Friday night and again Saturday
afternoon. With some elevated instability present, cant rule
out the chance for thunder either window. Will continue to
monitor timing and location before adding to the going forecast.

The lack of widespread precip does bode well for possibly
seeing daytime highs in the 70s on Saturday. Guidance pins much
of the CWA in the narrow warm sector during the day. With clouds
expected to be in the region in some capacity, that will weigh
against temps rising higher. Areas that do break out should see
temps climb quickly given the low level warmth and available
mixing.

The cold front moves across the forecast area Saturday night
into Sunday morning. This will bring another dry stretch Sunday
into Monday with breezy NW winds. Temperatures fall back into
the mid to upper 50s for highs, with overnight lows in the 30s
and 40s. The next disturbance approaches Monday night as low
pressure tracks through the Great Lakes. Low positioning is
variable at this range, and this will play a role in how the
system evolves as well as the longevity of precipitation in the
area. Some solutions develop another surface low in vicinity of
the Gulf of Maine, while others try to simply draw the occluded
front through the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...VFR through Thursday. Could see a few rain or snow
showers outside of the mountains into early this evening, but
chances for restrictions are very low. The more likely TAF site
to see restrictions is HIE where MVFR ceilings likely continue,
and rain and snow showers may bring intermittent periods of
reduced visibilities. For winds, could see 25-30 kt this
afternoon into early evening, but these will ease through
tonight. Similar conditions are expected for Thursday with less
cloud cover south of the mountains but still breezy.

Long Term...VFR Friday with clouds thickening into Saturday
morning. The region will see a period of SHRA, but coverage is
uncertain. In vicinity of a warm front, LLWS will be possible
Friday night and Saturday. MVFR ceilings will be most likely
near the Quebec border with ME/NH and mountains. A cold front
passes Saturday night, bringing an end to showers as well as a
NW wind shift.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will keep
brisk westerly flow across the waters and SCA conditions
through at least tonight over the out waters, possibly lingering
into Thursday morning. The Bays may occasionally see gusts
up to 25 kt through this evening, but duration and frequency
doesn`t look enough for an SCA. Conditions then stay below SCA
levels the rest of Thursday and Thursday night.

Long Term...SCA conditions likely outside of the bays and
harbors this weekend. A warm front will initially enter the
region Friday night, with increasing SW winds. Low pressure
resides to the west through Saturday, before crossing with a
cold front overnight into Sunday morning. SCA conditions may
continue due to wind Sunday, but uncertain how frequent gusts to
25 or 30 kt will be. In the offshore flow, wave heights will
decrease.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Combs/Ekster
SHORT TERM...Combs
LONG TERM...Cornwell
AVIATION...
MARINE...