Winchester, Nevada 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

094
FXUS65 KVEF 232204
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
304 PM PDT Mon Jun 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Other than a low chance for showers on the Sierra crest this
  afternoon, dry conditions are likely through the week.

* Haze is possible today and Tuesday as south winds push elevated
  smoke in from fires in the Baja Peninsula.

* Temperatures will gradually warm throughout the week. Below normal
  temperatures are expected through Wednesday before temperatures
  normal to above normal temperatures return the second half of the
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Sunday.

Water vapor imagery early this afternoon showed a upper level trough
digging into central California. With abundant mid to upper level
moisture noted on this morning area soundings, this mainly resulted
in Scattered clouds streaming into California and southern Nevada.
As this upper level trough remains over the region today, cold 500mb
temperatures and weak upslope flow will result precipitation on the
Sierra crest through the afternoon. Mesoanalysis shows low end
instability and high mid level lapse rates in this area, so
thunderstorms are possible. Probabilities for over 0.01 inch of rain
remain on the peaks with no chances are noted in the nearby valleys,
so any impacts should remain in the high terrain. Lightning and
sudden gusty winds are possible with storms today, otherwise not
expecting any thunderstorm or rain impacts. Precipitation will
diminish this evening and most likely, a dry night is expected. THe
HRRR does show isolated showers and lightning flashes in Esmeralda
and central Nye counties overnight which would correspond to the
best area of forcing with decent vorticity advection, however the
HRRR is the outlier and HREF shows less than 10% probabilities for
rain over 0.01 in at anytime overnight. THe shortwave will weaken as
it shifts east on Tuesday onward, thus dry conditions are expected
area-wide tomorrow and through the through the rest of the week.

Smoke from fires in the Baja Peninsula will be pushed north on breezy
south winds today and Tuesday. The HRRR shows areas of smoke
advecting into the Colorado River Valley, southern Nevada, and
Mohave County at times, however suggests it will mostly be elevated
as near surface smoke (versus vertically integrated smoke) is very
low. HREF shows a no probabilities for reduced visibilities, so most
likely there will periods of haze at times today and Tuesday and
not significant surface smoke or impacts.

Upper level troughing will remain in place over the region, but
slowly weaken, through midweek. This will result in below normal but
gradually warming temperatures through Wednesday. After Wednesday,
ridging will begin to replace the upper level trough. As heights
build, temperatures will warm to near normal on Thursday, then above
normal Friday through the weekend. After none to minor hear risk
much of the week, widespread Moderate Heat Risk with isolated Major
Heat Risk returns for Saturday and Sunday. Anyone with outdoor plans
this weekend should be prepared for much warmer temperatures than
current levels and take heat precautions such as drinking extra
water and adjusting plan to cooler parts of the day.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...South-
southeast winds are still expected this afternoon at all the valley
TAF sites, with a high chance (80%) for wind speeds over 10KT and a
moderate chance (60%) for gusts over 20KT. Strongest winds should be
centered around 00Z this evening. Before the southeast wind push
through LAS by 23Z, winds will fluctuate in speed and direction at
times. Winds will then become south-southwest between between 00Z-
03Z at which time gusts should end and speeds will drop to 8-10KT.
If winds transition to the south at earlier vs later, southerly
gusts to around 15KT are possible until about 02Z when all gusts
will end. Typical light wind trends are expected overnight. Winds on
Tuesday will be similar to today but not as strong. Uncertainty
exists in the wind direction Tuesday afternoon, however trending
towards a southeast wind under 8KT becoming south at 10KT around
21Z. Isolated gusts around 15KT are possible after 21Z Tuesday. VFR
conditions are expected through the period. Haze is possible at
times through Tuesday due to smoke, however surface smoke and
visibility reductions are not expected.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona and
southeastern California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Breezy
south to southeast winds will diminish after sunset with lighter
winds following typical patterns set up for tonight. The exception
will be KDAG, where directions will remain mainly westerly through
the TAF period, with gusts to over 25KT expected through the first
part of the night. Low chance that KBIH sees a push of gusty west
winds 00Z-02Z, however most likely southeast winds will transition
to the north this evening per typical wind patterns. South winds
will increase again Tuesday late morning and afternoon but should be
lighter than today. Showers and thunderstorms on the Sierra crest
will not impact nearby valleys other than some SCT-BKN CIGs around
10kft at KBIH, which should diminish after sunset. VFR conditions
should prevail across the region through the TAF period. Haze from
regional wildfires may result in reduced slantwise visibilities
throughout the day across the Mojave Desert.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Nickerson


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