Spring Creek, Nevada 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

701
FXUS65 KLKN 250741
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1241 AM PDT Sun May 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

 * Isolated, mix of wet and dry thunderstorms in Northeast Nevada
   during the afternoon on Monday and Tuesday

 * Continuing warming trend through late week

&&


.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Sunday)
Issued at 1230 AM PDT Sun May 25 2025

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Warm and dry on Sunday as upper level
ridging persists over the forecast area. A few sprinkles or
rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out entirely, especially in
White Pine county, but atmospheric conditions do not look
conducive to broader showers/convection with low atmospheric
moisture values and weak lifted indices and CAPE values. Monday
looks more favorable to daytime showers/convection mainly in the
eastern half of the forecast area. Highs both days look to be in
the upper 70s to low 80s and overnight temperatures will drop to
the upper 40s and low 50s.

Tuesday upper level flow over the western CONUS is very meridional
featuring a shortwave trough exiting the area to the east with a
ridge over the west coast set to move into the Great Basin.
Instability Tuesday afternoon mainly over northeast and east
central NV will initiate convection though PW values in the
0.5-0.6 range suggest mostly dry convection over the region. The
ridge pushes into the Great Basin and amplifies Tuesday evening
and Wednesday.

This will help to continue the warming trend pushing afternoon
highs in the 70s and 80s early in the week up into the 80s and 90s
by the weekend. This stagnant pattern persists through Sunday as
the ridge drapes over the western CONUS for the majority of the
week. Each afternoon diurnal heating driven convection is possible
mainly over northeast NV but with little moisture to work with
more than dry thunderstorms is not expected through the weekend.

Models finally have started to resolve around a low pressure
center off the CA coast that will meander around the US/Mexican
border through the weekend seemingly halted by the persistent
ridge over the area. Model guidance currently has the LPC finally
moving into SoCal and poised to push into NV by early Monday
morning heading into next week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Moderate to high confidence in
time and location of showers/convection for Monday and Tuesday.
Possibility for showers and dry convection to persist through the
week but exact timing and location is still being determined.

&&


.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals over the
next 24 hours. Scattered to broken clouds with ceilings ranging
from FL100 to FL250 will persist across northern and central NV.
Afternoon instability east of White Pine County may initiate
afternoon thunderstorms. However, due to limited coverage and low
probability, thunderstorms were not included in the TAFs for KELY.
Winds will generally be from the W-NW around 10 kts.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

Fair weather expected until Monday afternoon when scattered
showers and isolated, mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are expected
mainly in zones 469/470, with some spillover into 438/425.
Isolated wet and dry thunderstorms are expected in roughly the
same areas Tuesday afternoon. Wet and dry convective potential
continues through the week, but confidence is too low for
specifics at this time. Temperatures continue to be above average
and warming will persist.

&&


.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...94/99
AVIATION...90
FIRE WEATHER...94