York, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

240
FXUS63 KGID 221131
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
531 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmup continues into next week. Above normal temperatures
  expected each day.

- Only a low (10-20%) chance for light precipitation Tuesday
  night into Wednesday morning.

- Windy Wednesday afternoon.

- After our warm stretch, winter is expected to "return" the
  following week (March 3rd-9th).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

With clear skies and widespread snow cover, temperatures are
expected to dip into the single digits by sunrise this morning.
If not for the steady southwesterly surface winds, we`d
probably have another morning with a subzero temperatures. Light
westerly winds this afternoon, along mostly clear skies and
rising heights aloft, should allow the entire area to rise above
freezing this afternoon. Southwestern areas could even make a
run into the upper 40s!

The warming trend continues Sunday and Monday. Sunday is
expected to have widespread 40s and 50s, and some 60s could creep
into our west/south on Monday.

As snow begins to melt, the available low level moisture could
result in foggy mornings, but westerly surface winds will make
this less favorable through at least Monday.

By Tuesday, deterministic models favor that most of the snowpack
will have melted away, and we should see a push of even warmer
air ahead of a quick-moving shortwave. As such, Tuesday is still
favored to be the warmest day of the week. Exceeding 60 degrees
is a near certainty (95% chance) near/west of Highway 183.
Chances decrease as you move eastward, but according to the 01Z
NBM, there is still a 60-70% chance to reach 60 degrees along
the Highway 81 corridor.

With the persistent warmth, including overnight lows in the
upper 20s and 30s, some river ice may start to break up next
week. With this, the potential for ice jam flooding will also
increase. Those with interests along rivers should monitor water
levels closely. Fortunately, no significant precipitation is
expected to exacerbate the issue.

And speaking of precipitation, there is only a low chance for
light rain Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the upper
shortwave moves through the area. Compared to last night, all 3
of the major global ensembles (GEFS, GEPS, EPS) show a slight
increase in the potential for 0.10" of rain. That said, this
probability is still pretty low at only 5 to 15% (highest east).


Northwest winds increase on Wednesday behind a cold front.
Compared to 24 hours ago, the NBM and EPS ensemble both backed
off on winds slightly, but gusts in the 30-40 MPH range still
are likely. If we remain dry and the snow melts away
sufficiently, this would be a day to monitor from a fire-weather
perspective.

After a "cooler" day (highs in the 50s) on Wednesday,
temperatures bounce back again late next week. The warmth won`t
last forever though. The longer-range outlook continues to hint
at a cooldown the following week (March 3-9), along with the
potential for wintry precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 529 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is a low
chance (10-15%) for light fog/haze this evening, but with
westerly winds, visibility impacts are unlikely at GRI/EAR.

Southwest winds become more westerly through the day today.
Sustained wind speeds are expected to remain around or below
10kts.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels