Omaha, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

650
FXUS63 KOAX 051714
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1214 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will gradually diminish
  through the morning hours.

- Storm chances return this afternoon across southeast NE and
  southwest IA, with a 5-10% chance of producing quarter-sized
  hail and wind gusts up to 60 mph.

- Daily storm chances (20-30%) continue from Sunday night
  through the work week. While the severe threat remains low,
  repeated rounds of rainfall may lead to localized flooding
  concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Today and Tonight...

Upper-level analysis this morning reveals a mid- to upper-level
ridge anchored over the southeastern CONUS, with broad troughing
over the western CONUS and a deamplifying shortwave lifting
northeast across the northern Plains. At the surface, a trough
associated with this passing disturbance is sweeping across eastern
NE, supporting scattered to widespread thunderstorms. As of 1 AM,
KOAX radar indicates a band of reflectivity extending from northeast
NE into central NE as convection redevelops with a final vorticity
maximum sweeping across the area. The severe weather threat with
this activity remains limited, given modest bulk shear (20-25 kts)
and weak instability (MLCAPE < 1000 J/kg). A few stronger wind gusts
(30-40 mph) may accompany any decaying storms, but the threat
appears low. Locally heavy rainfall will remain a possibility with
these early morning storms as PWAT values linger in the 1.75-2.00"
range (above the 90th percentile of OAX sounding climatology) and
model soundings indicate 3-4 km of warm cloud depth along with long,
skinny CAPE profiles. This is especially the case in northeast NE
where a near stationary band of northeast progressing storms is
setting up.

This early morning convection will gradually shift east and
dissipate by mid to late morning, with most of the area clearing out
by 9-11 AM. Cloud cover will decrease through the day, allowing
afternoon highs to climb into the 80s to low 90s. In the wake of the
departing system, a surface low will hinder over the MI/WI region,
trailing a cold front southwestward into eastern NE and southwest IA
by mid-afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
along this boundary, tracking southward into the evening. A few
strong to severe storms will be possible, supported by moderate
MLCAPE values (1250-1750 J/Kg) and steep mid-level lapse rates.
While bulk shear will remain relatively weak (20-25 kts), it should
be sufficient for some initial storm organization before cold pools
eventually become unbalanced. The primary hazards will be damaging
wind gusts (up to 60 mph), aided by modest DCAPE values (1000-1250
J/kg), with isolated instances of hail up to 1" possible with any
stronger updrafts. Storms are expected to weaken and exit the area
by midnight. The SPC has outlined southeast NE and southwest IA in a
marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather.

Sunday and Beyond...

A mid-level ridge will briefly slide over the area on Sunday,
bringing a temporary break from precipitation and allowing highs to
climb into the 80s. Seasonable conditions are expected to continue
through the work week, with daytime highs generally in the 80s to
low 90s and overnight lows in the upper 60s.

By early next week, the large-scale pattern will shift to feature
troughing over the south-central CONUS, with broadly zonal to
northwesterly flow aloft across the region. This setup will support
a series of weak disturbances tracking through the area throughout
the week. The aforementioned cold front is expected to stall and
transition into a stationary boundary, meandering north and south
through the area and acting as a focus for periodic showers and
thunderstorms, further aided by passing shortwave disturbances.

Precipitation chances (PoPs 20-30%) return late Sunday night into
Monday as the first in a series of disturbances slides across the
northern Plains. PoPs will continue in the 20-30% range for much of
the work week. However, confidence remains low in the timing and
placement of individual disturbances and their associated
precipitation. While no day stands out as a clear threat for severe
weather, isolated strong to severe storms can`t be ruled out. GEFS
and ECMWF ensemble-based machine learning guidance currently
highlights a 5-10% probability for severe weather across the region
during this period. The primary concern will likely shift towards
localized flooding, with repeated rounds of heavy rainfall possible
through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

MVFR clouds have been more persistent that anticipated this
morning, with satellite imagery this morning showing that KOMA
has a little bit longer to go with BKN020 ceilings through
around1830z while KLNK are done with ceiling restrictions for
the period. Another field of low clouds are building into the
KOFK area from the north behind a north-northwesterly wind
shift, with a period of MVFR ceilings being likely for a few
hours this afternoon before lifting gradually into the low-end
VFR territory. In addition to the clouds and shifting winds to
the northwest, a few showers and storms are possible this
afternoon. Most locations will stay dry with what are expected
to be small-footprint cells that will pop up and sweep to the
east- southeast. At the moment, KOMA has the only reach chances
of seeing anything (around a 20% chance), with the most likely
time being from 00-01z this evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Petersen