Nebraska City, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

371
FXUS63 KOAX 230723
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
223 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An active weather pattern this week will lead to an extended
  period of rainfall chances, and the potential for flooding and
  some severe weather.

- Temperatures will be cooler than this past weekend. However,
  periods of above-normal heat will continue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Early this morning through tonight:

Current water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough centered over
CA and NV, with a prominent mid/upper-level high located east
of the MS Valley. Between those features, a vigorous shortwave
trough was progressing through the northern High Plains into
southern parts of SK/MB. In the low levels, a convectively
augmented cold front was edging into northeast NE, with a
loosely organized MCS ongoing along and in the immediate wake of
the boundary. Several inches of rain have been reported with
the storms across portions of north-central NE. Given the
relatively slow eastward progression of the MCS, and the
potential for training/backbuilding storms along a 50-60 kt
low-level jet, there is concern for flash flooding early this
morning across portions of northeast NE. As such, a Flood Watch
has been issued until 7 AM for Knox, Cedar, Antelope, Pierce,
and Wayne counties.

The CAMs indicate a decrease in areal storm coverage from around
daybreak through the remainder of the morning in the vicinity of
the slow-moving cold front. The warm overnight temperatures
will provide a fast start to another hot day south of the front
with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, and heat indices in the
90s to around 100. Readings in the upper 70s to mid 80s are
forecast to the north of the front.

By this afternoon, daytime heating and convergence along the
front will encourage a steady increase in showers and
thunderstorms, a few of which could be strong to severe.
Forecast soundings in close proximity to the front indicate a
moist (PW approaching 2") and moderately unstable air mass.
Vertical shear is expected to be generally weak, with the
exception being on the immediate cool side of the boundary,
where backed low-level winds will yield comparatively stronger
shear. As such, the general expectation is for slow-moving
storms capable of heavy rain and locally strong wind gusts. A
brief tornado cannot be ruled out with any surface-based, post-
frontal storm that can realize the locally stronger shear. Both
the WPC and SPC are highlighting a slight risk of excessive
rainfall and severe weather today, with the highest
probabilities focused along the afternoon/evening frontal
location.

This evening, the models suggest the bulk of the diurnally enhanced
convection will weaken and/or shift to the southeast of the area.
Overnight, strengthening low-level warm advection and moisture flux
at the terminus of a nocturnal low-level jet are expected to
support more widespread shower and thunderstorm development.
Heavy rain and potential flooding will be the primary concern
with that activity.

Tuesday and Wednesday:

Amplification of the western U.S. trough will result in the
strengthening of the downstream ridge across the mid/lower MO Valley
into northern Plains on Tuesday into Tuesday night. By
Wednesday into Wednesday night, the ridge will slowly weaken
with the approach of a shortwave trough moving into the
northern and central High Plains. At the surface, the above-
mentioned surface front is expected to lift north through much
of the area Tuesday into Tuesday night, with that boundary
potentially lingering across the northern part of our area
Wednesday into Wednesday night.

The best shower and thunderstorm potential will exist along and to
the north of the front, with the overall synoptic pattern remaining
favorable for heavy rainfall and flooding, given the presence of a
seasonably moist air mass. The WPC has maintained a slight risk
for excessive rainfall across most of our area both days for the
flooding potential. Some severe-weather threat will also exist.

Highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s on Tuesday are expected to warm
into the 80s to low 90s on Wednesday as the front lifts to the north.


Thursday through the weekend:

The shortwave trough mentioned in the previous section will move
through the area on Thursday, with the surface front then advancing
southeast through the area as a cool front. Showers and
thunderstorms will again be focused along that feature, especially
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. From Friday through the
weekend, the models indicate the progression of a low-amplitude
trough from the Pacific NW and northern Intermountain Region into
the north-central states. In the low levels, it appears the primary
surface boundary will develop north into the Dakotas on Friday
and Saturday, which could provide us a break from the rain
chances. The models indicate the front moving back into the area
Saturday night into Sunday, with increasing precipitation
chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Main changes for this issuance were to add a TEMPO group at
KOFK from 07z to 10z for -TSRA as models continue to hint at a
line of convection moving through during this period. Otherwise,
still expecting to see MVFR conditions at KOFK through about
20z, with some slight improvement to low end VFR but will see
ceilings again lower to MVFR very late in the TAF period as
showers and storms move in. Have added -TSRA and -SHRA mentions
as well at KOMA and KLNK after 20z and 22z, respectively, with
ceilings lowering to MVFR late in the TAF period. Expect
further refinements and adjustments with future issuances. Some
storms may be severe with large hail and damaging winds, primarily
Monday afternoon/evening.

Finally, will see winds gradually diminish overnight, but may
become gusty once again at KOFK after 16z. Winds also switch
from southerly to northerly throughout the period as a front
moves through but remain at or less than 12 kts at KOMA and
KLNK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for NEZ011-012-016>018.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Castillo