Nebraska City, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

478
FXUS63 KOAX 241104
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
504 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will move through this afternoon, opening the
  door for below normal temperatures throughout the upcoming
  week.

- Small chance (20-30%) of rain and snow next Wednesday, but
  little or no impacts expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Today through Tuesday...

Cloud cover thinned overnight, allowing temperatures to dip into the
the 30s over northeast Nebraska. Meanwhile, southeast Nebraska and
southwest Iowa, hung onto the mid 40s, as of 2 AM. Clearing skies,
light winds and falling temperatures allowed for the development of
patchy fog over parts of south-central Nebraska early this morning.
We may see some of that fog begin to spread east into the western
fringes of our forecast area over the next few hours.

A cold front will swing through the forecast area today, capping
highs in the 40s over northeast Nebraska. Farther south, mainly
along and south of I-80, we should still make it into the 50s before
the cooler air moves in during the afternoon. A few models continue
to hint at the potential for light precipitation after the cold air
moves through Sunday evening. Given the consistent signal, opted to
added the potential flurries/sprinkles over northeast Nebraska this
evening. However, if anything does fall tonight, amounts will be
negligible. Winds will become breezy behind the front, with speeds
up to 10 to 20 mph and gusts as high as 30 to 40 mph possible
through Sunday night.

Winds will remain breezy through Monday morning, as colder, drier
air continues to filter into the region. Highs on Monday will be
noticeably cooler, in the mid 30s to low 40s. High pressure over the
region will allow dry weather to prevail through Tuesday, as well.
Southerly mid/low level return flow will boost temperatures a few
degrees, into the low to mid 40s on Tuesday. Overnight, lows will
fall into the teens and 20s.

Wednesday and Beyond...

The next upper level disturbance is still on track to move out of
the Rockies on Wednesday and Thursday, bringing the potential for
rain and snow to the region. The latest GFS and ECMWF runs diverge
on solutions with this system. While the GFS continues to pull the
precipitation potential south of the forecast area, the ECMWF has
shifted slightly to the north, bringing the chance for accumulating
snow to the region. Roughly 30 percent of ensemble members are
showing snowfall amounts of 0.1" or greater across the forecast
area. While it looks like the best ingredients for snowfall will
likely remain off to our south and east, there remains at least a
chance for light wintry precipitation on one of the busiest
travel days of the year. We will continue to keep a watchful eye
on this system as more of the details are ironed out, but
thankfully, as of now, little to no impacts are expected.

Precipitation chances diminish by Thanksgiving day and through the
end of the week. Temperatures will plummet, as a chilly air mass
pushes south out of Canada and into the midwest. Highs on
Thanksgiving day will struggle to make it out of the low and mid
30s. By Friday and Saturday, most locations will be stuck in the mid
20s and low 30s for highs. Overnight lows are currently forecast to
dip into the teens and single digits.

Looking ahead, CPC outlooks continue to show a good chance to for
the downward spiral in below normal temperatures to continue through
the next 6 to 14 days. Precipitation outlooks, on the other hand,
have shifted toward below normal trends through the next 14 days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 451 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

A cold front will swing through the region today, bringing light
southeasterly winds around to the northwest, with gusts up to 25
to 30 kts possible this evening and overnight. While fog
development looks to remain off to our west this morning, we
will see VFR conditions lower to MVFR as a lower cloud deck
moves through with the frontal passage. A few flurries and/or
sprinkles may be possible over northeast Nebraska, however most
locations will remain dry. Conditions are expected to improve to
VFR by the 12Z Monday, but winds will remain gusty.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG