McCook, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

592
FXUS63 KGLD 110900
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
300 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a threat for critical fire weather conditions across
  Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado Saturday
  afternoon.

- Near critical fire weather conditions are possible Monday
  afternoon generally east of Highway 83. On Wednesday and
  Thursday, near critical to potentially critical fire weather
  conditions are forecast generally west of Highway 27.

- Record and near record high temperatures are possible
  Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Today-tonight...upper level ridging slowly moves over the area.
along with increasing 850mb temperatures. Surface high pressure over
the area this morning slowly moves to the east with low pressure
developing along the Colorado front range. This will produce an
increasing pressure gradient with southerly winds gusting up to 30
mph. These winds will also bring warmer air into the area with high
temperatures in the middle 70s to lower 80s. Tonight, just a few
high clouds passing through with low temperatures in the 40s.

Saturday-Saturday night...the hottest temperatures of 2025 remain in
the forecast  are forecast as 850mb temperatures per
GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF models rise into the 23C to 30C range. Blending
the better performing temperature guidance from the past 7 days
supports high temperatures in the upper 80s to middle 90s. This is
similar to partial mixing of 850mb temperatures from the GFS/NAM
guidance. With the dryline forecast to slowly move east toward the
Highway 25 area by late afternoon, temperatures behind it could
reach full mixing at 850mb which would support high temperatures
about about 3 degrees warmer than currently forecast. Record/near
record temperatures are possible, see CLIMATE section below.

Overnight, a cold front moves into the area with some breezy
northwest winds. Low temperatures will be above normal in the middle
40s to middle 50s. A lack of moisture in the 850-500mb layer favors
a dry forecast.

Sunday-Sunday night...as an upper level trough moves across the
northern plains, it will push a cold front through the area.
Northerly winds gusting 30 to 40 mph are forecast along with cooler
temperatures ranging from the middle 60s to upper 70s. There are
some discrepancies regarding the temperature forecast as the NAM is
quite a bit colder (highs in the middle 50s to upper 60s) while the
GFS/ECMWF models are warmer (middle 60s to around 80) so watch for
updated forecasts. There will be a 20% chance for afternoon rain
showers from Wray to Flagler west. Overnight, breezy north winds in
the evening slowly decrease. There will also be a chance (20%-60%)
of rain showers with the Flagler area  possibly seeing a rain/snow
mix toward sunrise Monday morning. Presently, no accumulating snow
is forecast. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 30s to
lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 215 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

The main weather topics for the extended portion of the forecast
will be a transition back to above normal temperatures from Tuesday
onward. Also these increased temperatures forecasted will bring
about dry conditions most of the period. There are a few low chances
(15-20%) for some light showers Tuesday night onward that may help
to mitigate localized areas, but some near critical fire weather
conditions are possible.

Current 00z GFS and ECMWF guidance for Monday has the region under
NW flow aloft, allowing for cool conditions to persist through the
day. Models are mixed as to any moisture remnants Monday morning
from a passing shortwave, with the ECMWF a bit more aggressive over
the northern tier zones. Current NBM favors closer to the GFS where
only a few isolated showers possible(15%)in the northwest w/ little
to no impact. Surface ridge coming off the north central Rockies
into the central Plains will allow for a persistent NW flow through
the day. The ridge continues to push into the region overnight
providing clear skies/light winds, and thus the coldest night in the
extended.

For Tuesday onward, upper ridge to the west pushes through the area
on Tuesday, settling south of the area by midweek, allowing for a
shortwave to pass over the northern periphery of the ridge. Guidance
is mixed as to the track/strength/QPF potential of the system as it
passes. This will be aided in part by a front moving off the Front
Range. Dry conditions at the surface will allow for better moisture
convergence east of the CWA, but nonetheless a 15-20% chance for
showers is possible. High pressure at the surface transitions
through the region setting up east for Thursday and Friday. Position
of the ridge is mixed per guidance, so northerly flow ahead of the
ridge will transition to more southerly by the end of the week.

Overall despite the low chances for showers the main concern with be
localized near critical fire wx conditions that could develop,
especially from midweek onward. Much of the area will see RH values
in the mid teens to the mid 20s. Winds will be strongest in the west
where gusts 20-30 mph are possible, but overall criteria may not be
met but will have to be monitored nonetheless as the week progresses
due to the persistent drying potential.

For temps, highs on Monday will be cool with a range in the upper
50s to the mid 60s. A warming trend ensues for the rest of the week
with lower to mid 70s on Tuesday, mid 70s to the lower 80s on
Wednesday and Thursday that will give way to upper 70s to the lower
80s for next Friday. Overnight lows will range in the upper 20s to
the lower 30s Monday night, with 40s each night thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

KGLD...VFR conditions will continue through the taf period. A
light southerly wind at taf issuance will increase from 16z-23z
with gusts up to 30kts. Tonight, southerly winds of 11-13kts are
forecast.

KMCK...VFR conditions will continue through the taf period. A
light and variable wind at taf issuance will increase from
17z-00z with gusts up to 25kts. Tonight, southerly winds around
10-11kts are forecast.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 100 PM MDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Record high temperatures for Saturday April 12 are listed
in the following table.

==============================================
Location                     Record High (F)
==============================================
Goodland, KS................   93 in 2023
McCook, NE..................   93 in 2023
Burlington, CO..............   95 in 2023
Hill City, KS...............   93 in 2011

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99
CLIMATE...JN