Crete, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

275
FXUS63 KOAX 071015
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
515 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will move across much of the area
  this morning. Severe weather is unlikely (less than 5%
  chance). The greatest chance for rainfall up to an inch is
  along and south of a line from Albion to Omaha to Clarinda.

- Light showers are possible again on Sunday (30% chance).

- Warming trend next week, with highs approaching 90 by
  Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

A healthy shortwave is approaching eastern Nebraska and western
Iowa this morning, leading to scattered shower and storm
development currently ongoing across central Nebraska. This
activity will translate eastward as the shortwave gets closer,
bringing shower and weak thunderstorm activity to our area
between 5-10 AM. Model soundings show a modest amount of
instability ahead of the shortwave, which is enough for
thunderstorm development, but not quite enough for organized
severe potential. Some of the hi-res models have gusts up to 35
kt as the line of storms move across our area this morning, but
that`s likely the worst we could see from this.

Rainfall amounts as these showers and storms move through this
morning will for the most part stay under an inch, with higher
amounts of around 0.5 inch more likely for southeast Nebraska
and southwest Iowa. Showers should come to an end this afternoon
with gradually clearing skies. High temperatures this afternoon
will stay fairly mild, only getting up into the mid 70s to
around 80 toward central Nebraska.

A more longwave trough drops south out of Canada on Sunday
pushing a cool front south into Nebraska and Iowa. This will
bring additional low chances for showers and storms (15-30%) on
Sunday, though due to their widely scattered nature, many likely
won`t see much if any accumulating rainfall.

Going into next week, an upper-level ridge shifting east out of
the Rockies will bring a warming trend with high temperatures
reaching near 90 by Wednesday. As the ridge continues east
toward the end of the week, we start to see more significant
moisture advection into the region on the back side of the ridge
from the Gulf, increasing instability and bringing back chances
for showers and storms Thursday-Friday. Right now not seeing
any significant potential for severe storms, but many of the
details toward the end of the week still need to be sorted out.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 515 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Showers are starting to develop across southeast Nebraska and
are also approaching from the west. Expect showers with embedded
thunderstorms to impact the terminals between 12Z-18Z this
morning with vis occasionally dropping to MVFR under heavier
showers. The bulk of the showers should stay south of KOFK, but
KOFK will get clipped early by this first line. Otherwise, once
showers clear, we`ll see VFR conditions through the afternoon
with decreasing cloud cover toward 00Z. We`ll have to watch for
fog potential shortly after sunset this evening as clear skies
and calm winds could lead to fog development, but this window
will be short as a front moves through between 06-12Z that will
bring in stronger winds out of the northwest which should mix
out any fog that may have developed.

Winds will be light through the day today, mainly out of the
west in northeast Nebraska, and out of the north at KLNK. KOMA
will be right along the boundary which could lead to variable
winds at times. Winds will become predominantly out of the south
this evening before the aforementioned front passes from north
to south across our area from around 06-12Z Sunday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...McCoy