Crete, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

110
FXUS63 KOAX 111107
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
607 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and breezy conditions will lead to fire weather concerns
  Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.

- Low (15-25%) rain chances Saturday night and Sunday night,
  with slightly better chances (25-35%) Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Today...

Winds diminished notably overnight as an upper ridge moved over the
intermountain west and a surface high settled over the Missouri
River Valley. Radiational cooling under clear skies allowed
temperatures to dip into the mid 30s to low 40s by 2 AM.

A trough just to our east will draw northerly flow over the forecast
area today. Highs will be a few degrees cooler than Thursday, in the
mid 60s, with much lighter winds, and mostly sunny skies.

Saturday and Sunday...

The ridge to our west will tilt into the upper midwest this weekend,
drawing warmer temperatures and a resurgence of stronger winds into
the forecast area. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will generally top
out in the mid to upper 70s, with a few locations pushing into the
low 80s. Winds will increase out of the south/southwest Saturday to
15-20 mph, with gusts up to 30-40 mph. A cold front drifts through
the region Sunday morning, bringing winds around to the north. It
will be another breezy day, with gusts around 20-30 mph forecast.
The combination of warm temperatures and gusty winds will lead to
Very High fire danger both Saturday and Sunday. With minimum
relative humidities ranging from 25-35%, we could easily see some
pockets of Extreme Fire Danger with minor changes to forecasted
winds, temperatures, and RH.

Despite the overall dry conditions, we will have a couple low
chances for rain this weekend. The first arrives with the previously
mentioned cold front early Sunday morning. Although the better
moisture looks to remain well to the north of the forecast area, we
could see a few spotty showers creeping into northeast Nebraska. For
now will maintain 15-25% PoPs near the SD border.

The second chance for rain arrives with an upper level disturbance
Sunday night into early Monday morning, and is limited to the
southern half of the forecast area. Right now, no hazardous/severe
weather is expected with either of these waves. In fact, appreciable
moisture will be very little overall, probably around 0.05" or less.

Monday and Beyond...

Northwesterly flow returns Monday through most of next week, bringing
slightly cooler temperatures back into the region. Highs will drop
back into the 60s through the first half of the week, inching back
into the 70s for Wednesday and beyond. Fire weather concerns
continue into Monday with relative humidities as low as the teens
and 20s, and winds potentially gusting up to 30 to 35 mph.

Otherwise, within this flow regime, a few shortwaves will likely
trickle through the forecast area, bringing a handful of spotty
shower chances. However this far out, it is tricky to pin down
exactly when they might occur. As of now the best chance looks to be
next Wednesday, as an upper low dives southeast through Minnesota
and into the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 607 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period with light northerly
winds becoming southeasterly by late morning and through the
afternoon. Expect some low level wind shear toward the very end
of the period at OFK and LNK with southwesterly winds aloft at
40-45 kts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...CA