Blair, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

668
FXUS63 KOAX 040403
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1003 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong winds gusting 35-45 mph are expected tomorrow afternoon
  and evening behind a cold front that will dive south across
  our area.

- Very cold temperatures are expected Wednesday night through
  Thursday night. The coldest temperatures will be early
  Thursday morning, with wind chills potentially dipping below
  zero for a few hours.

- Warmer temperatures are expected this weekend, with many
  warming up into the 50s by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

     Today through Thursday Night...

High pressure will remain in place across much of the central
Plains and Midwest today, bringing clear skies and dry
conditions to our area.

Tonight, a potent shortwave trough will dive south-southeast
into the upper Midwest from south-central Canada. Although the
associated surface low will pass well to our northeast, a cold
front will push north to south across our area tomorrow during
the day. Cloud cover will increase considerably behind the
front, with isolated sprinkles/flurries heading into tomorrow
afternoon/evening (10-15 percent chance). A few may see a
dusting of snow by tomorrow night (5 percent chance), but
accumulating, measurable snow is not expected. The bigger impact
with this system will be strong winds tomorrow afternoon and
evening. The strongest winds will be north of US-30, with peak
wind gusts of 40-45 mph expected. Slightly weaker winds gusting
30-40 mph will be possible south of US-30.

Post-frontal temperatures will also be significantly colder.
Temperatures Thursday morning will range from the 10s in
southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa to the single digits in
northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa. This in conjunction
with wind gusts 20-25 mph will likely result in the coldest wind
chills so far of the season. Locations south of I-80 will see
wind chills Thursday morning near zero degrees. Portions of
northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa may see wind chills as
low as -10 degrees.

     Friday through Monday...

With surface high pressure and southerly surface winds
dominating much of the central and eastern CONUS heading into
this upcoming weekend, we will see the return of warmer
temperatures back into our area. Friday highs are expected to be
in the low to mid 40s, with temperatures climbing into the 50s
both Saturday and Sunday afternoons.

The blocking ridge out west looks to break down, at least
temporarily, by the end of this weekend heading into the
beginning of next week. Various weak upper-level disturbances
may traverse the central CONUS over the weekend. The only
impacts these will bring will be periods of increased upper-
level clouds. No precipitation is expected at this time.

Medium range guidance is increasingly confident that a trough
will amplify and dive southeast into the central CONUS Sunday
night into Monday. Additionally, a sub-tropical jet will extend
from central Mexico, north-northeast into the mid-Mississippi
River valley. To further complicate the upper-level flow, medium
range deterministic guidance resolves multiple low-amplitude
perturbation embedded in the larger scale upper-level flow over
much of the CONUS. In general, the left-exit region of the sub-
tropical jet coupled with forcing for ascent downstream the
approaching trough may favor surface cyclogenesis somewhere in
the central CONUS. The exact location and timing of this surface
low continues to be shrouded by substantial uncertainty
resulting from model to model, and run to run variability in
its meteorological details. While a few ensemble members of the
GEFS and ECMFW Ens bring snow into our area, the vast majority
of models keep us dry, as moisture return to the central Plains
may not happen quick enough before upper-level forcing for
ascent moves to the east of our region. Nonetheless, the
potential is non-zero (20-35 percent chance) of light snow
showers developing across our area sometime Monday or Tuesday,
particularly if an aforementioned low-amplitude disturbance can
provide a temporary enhancement to forcing for ascent.
Precipitation chances will increase if subsequent model runs are
more aggressive with moisture return into the central Plains,
or if the upper-level disturbance trends slower in its movement
to the east across the US. It cannot be stressed enough though,
there is substantial uncertainty with the forecast for the
beginning of next week, so please check back for forecast
updates throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1003 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

VFR conditions favored through the period, though there is about
a 50/50 shot of seeing some brief MVFR ceilings and OFK
Wednesday afternoon, with much smaller chances at OMA and LNK.
Winds will remain light overnight, out of the northwest at OFK
and southwest becoming northwest at OMA and LNK. Expect some low
level wind shear with northwest winds around 1500 ft at 40 kts.
Surface gusts will then pick up during the day, topping out in
the 30 to 40 kt range before coming down a bit in the evening.
Finally, can`t completely rule out some flurries/sprinkles in
northeast Nebraska, including OFK in the afternoon, but not
expecting any impacts at this time.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM CST Wednesday for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-031>034-043>045.
IA...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM CST Wednesday for IAZ043-055-
     056.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Darrah
AVIATION...CA