Beatrice, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

097
FXUS63 KOAX 121906
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
206 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect through 9 PM this evening for
  part of northeast Nebraska.

- Temperatures well above normal through Wednesday, followed by
  return to near normal readings Thursday through the weekend.

- Rain and thunderstorm chances return Wednesday evening (40-70%
  chance), with the potential for a few strong to severe storms.

- Additional rain and thunderstorm chances Sunday-Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025

A strong mid-level trough is digging onto the West Coast today,
finally pushing the stubborn blocking pattern off to the east.
These features will continue east into the Inter-Mountain West
by Tuesday. In the low-levels, a developing Low over the Dakotas
is creating southerly flow across our area, with surface winds
gusting to 30 to 35 mph in northeast Nebraska. Meanwhile, the
blocking Low over the Lower Mississippi Valley continues to
block any moisture from advecting northward into our area
keeping conditions dry. The combination of dry and windy
conditions is creating extreme fire danger this afternoon for
portions of northeast Nebraska where the fuels have been slow to
green up. These areas of greatest concern are under a Red Flag
Warning through 9 PM this evening.

As the western trough pushes inland tomorrow, we`ll see the
subtropical Jet start to push the Low over the Southeast off to
the east, which will start to allow some moisture from the Gulf
to advect into our area, with humidity reflecting this change by
only dropping to 20-35% during the afternoon, versus 15 to 25%
today. Primary impact of this will be lessening fire danger in
northeast Nebraska, though still expecting Very High Fire
Danger. Likely will be able to go without another Red Flag
Warning tomorrow.

Wednesday we see the front associated with the low pressure
system over the Dakotas start to approach, increasing southerly
flow across the region with winds likely gusting 25 to 35 mph
across our area, possibly approaching 40 mph at times. While
moisture advects into the region most of the day, the triggering
front isn`t forecast to arrive until after peak-heating. This
means storm development isn`t forecast until closer to sunset,
with rain chances highest in northeast Nebraska.

The frontal boundary will stall across our area overnight as a
secondary Low develops over western Nebraska and tracks
northeast along the boundary into eastern South Dakota. This
will keep shower and storm chances in northeast Nebraska through
Thursday afternoon, until the Low kicks off to the northeast
pulling the cold front through and bringing post-frontal westerly
flow across our area.

Westerly surface winds are looking to get fairly strong Thursday
afternoon and evening as the surface Low tracks just to our
north. Wind gusts to 40 to 50 mph appear likely, so we`ll
likely need a Wind Advisory for this period.

Rainfall amounts for this system are looking to be anywhere from
a Trace up to an inch of rain, with greatest amounts across
northeast Nebraska. We likely will see a few spots get locally
higher amounts under thunderstorms, especially if we get any
training storms along the boundary Wednesday night.

Going into the weekend, westerly flow will keep temperatures
mild with highs back down in the mid-70s to low-80s. Toward the
latter-half of the weekend we see the development of a
southwesterly flow regime which shifts east into our area. With
this, we`ll see significant moisture advection into our region.
A developing surface low will bring a warm front through Sunday
night bringing our first round of shower and storm chances
through, with a stronger, developing surface low over eastern
Colorado and the Nebraska Panhandle bringing the cold front
through Monday afternoon/evening. NSSL Machine Learning guidance
highlights the Sunday-Tuesday timeframe with potential for
severe storms, so this is a period to watch as ingredients are
coming together.

Drier conditions appear likely to return for the second half of
the week next week as a transient ridge builds back in from the
West. With this expect temperatures to trend back upward going
into next weekend.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025

VFR conditions through the TAF period under mostly clear skies.
May see some scattered clouds develop this afternoon around with
cigs 6000-8000 ft before they dissipate just before sunset.
Winds will remain out of the south, gusting to 20 to 25 kt this
afternoon before dropping off around 00Z. Winds remain light out
of the south overnight tonight.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-016-
     030.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...McCoy