Miles City, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

242
FXUS65 KBYZ 250857
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
257 AM MDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog this morning. Clouds diminish late afternoon with
  highs in the mid to upper 50s.

- Warmer Saturday and Sunday (60s and 70s). Scattered showers and
  isolated thunderstorms possible over south-central Montana
  Saturday and Sunday afternoon and evening (10 to 40 percent).

- Another storm system taking shape for late in the weekend into
  early next week with significant precipitation and impacts
  possible.

- Ponding in low lying areas, rises in creaks and streams, and
  impacts to burn scar areas are possible with the next system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Sunday morning...

Upper level low will slowly cross the area this morning and exit
to the east this afternoon. A weak chance for showers will exist
through the day over the southern half of the forecast area as
easterly winds keep some upslope in place this morning, and
weak/capped afternoon instability may generate enough lift for a
light shower during the warmest part of the day. Otherwise mainly
dry today with highs mainly in the 50s to near 60 degrees.
SOutheast winds will be gusty at times from the Bighorn mountains
east across SE Montana this afternoon/evening.

Southeast winds turn southerly tonight, diminishing the low
level moisture fetch that has been in place the past few days.
Expect some clearing, dry conditions, and weakening winds
overnight tonight.

An approaching Pacific storm system digging over S. California
will bring diffluent southwest flow to the area Saturday. The
downslope south-southwest winds push temperatures into the 70s.
Should be enough lift to support scattered showers/isolated
thunderstorms over the western mountains and foothills, shifting
into central zones early evening before dissipating late evening.
Any thunderstorms this time of year can produce small hail due to
the lower freezing levels in place. SE Montana looks to be just a
bit west of the best moisture and potential thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon. As the low level jet pushes moisture back into the area
Saturday night may see a few showers/isolated thunderstorms
develop south of a Baker to Moorhead line. Chambers

Sunday through Thursday...

A low is still set to move up from the southwest US into WY Sunday
into Monday with lowering heights to the north. With upper level
forcing in place and above average atmospheric moisture, a good
precipitation event is in place for the region. An associated
frontal passage is set to move through Sunday evening and with an
increase in instability, a slight chance of thunderstorms is also
possible. Much of south central MT has about a 40-60% chance of
at least an inch of precipitation. With this, there is also a
concern for localized flooding with an increased risk areas of or
near recent burn scars, especially under any thunderstorm
producing moderate to heavy rainfall. Snow levels will only drop
from around 9000 ft to 6-7,000 ft, so there also arises the risk
for warm rain on snow. This will be closely monitored over the
coming days as there are still uncertainties in the specifics of
the forecast. As far as snowfall, northerly flow will favor the
north facing slopes of the mountains. The Beartooth/Absarokas have
about a 60-90% chance of getting at least a foot of snow, with
the Pryors/Bighorns at a 40-60% chance.

Following the frontal passage, Monday will be cooler with breezy
conditions. A majority of the region has about a 40-60% chance of
seeing gusts to at least 40 mph. Probabilities for gusts to 50 mph
are confined to the MT/WY border with Sheridan at a 40% chance.
Ensembles are then continuing to show signs of shortwave troughing
moving through late Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing an increased
chance of precipitation. Much of the region has about a 40-60%
chance of precipitation at this time. Higher heights building in
behind for Thursday indicate dry conditions.

High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s Sunday, cooling into
the 50s Monday with 50/60s for the remainder of the period. TS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail but scattered areas of MVFR to IFR
conditions will continue overnight into late morning hours Friday,
as an upper level system crosses the region. Isolated pockets of
light rain and fog are possible given the upslope easterly winds
over the area during this period. Best period for fog at all TAF
locations will be 10z-15z. Models show ceilings lifting to around
4kft AGL by 17-19z Friday with a continued slight chance for light
shower activity into early evening Friday. Winds will increase
out of the east- southeast during the day on Friday with gusts in
the 20 to 30kt range possible, mainly over the southern portion of
the forecast area and into the eastern state line zones. As
inversion develops around sunset these gusty winds will diminish.
Chambers

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 059 038/072 045/073 043/055 040/066 045/062 042/069
    1/B 01/B    24/T    +8/W    12/W    54/W    21/U
LVM 054 037/069 042/067 040/054 038/058 040/058 037/066
    1/N 02/T    28/T    97/W    14/W    54/W    11/U
HDN 060 038/072 043/076 041/054 036/067 044/063 040/068
    1/B 11/B    24/T    +9/W    12/W    65/W    31/B
MLS 058 042/073 044/077 043/055 035/066 045/064 041/067
    1/B 00/B    13/W    97/W    11/B    44/W    21/U
4BQ 054 043/073 046/078 044/052 035/064 045/061 041/065
    1/E 00/B    12/W    79/W    21/B    34/W    21/B
BHK 057 040/065 041/076 041/052 030/063 040/061 036/062
    1/B 11/N    12/W    88/W    11/B    33/W    11/U
SHR 055 035/069 040/073 038/049 031/064 039/058 035/064
    1/N 12/T    13/W    8+/W    21/B    56/W    32/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings