Lockwood, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

637
FXUS65 KBYZ 161754
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
1154 AM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A weather system will bring cool & wet conditions late today
  into Friday. During this time, heavy snow is expected over the
  mountains and foothills with wet snow/slush accumulations likely
  at lower elevations.

- Impacts to travel, outdoor recreation, and young livestock are
  possible late Wednesday through Friday.

- After brief drying into Saturday, more cool and unsettled
  weather is anticipated Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...

Gusty winds were already moving into the N/NE part of the forecast
area this morning ahead of the front. Given the tight pressure
gradient and inverted-v soundings, have updated wind speeds/gusts
to 60% of the NBM 90th percentile, to get stronger winds into the
forecast. Also new HREF came in with the precipitation chances a
little further E and S from 18Z-21Z, so followed suite and
expanded the low PoPs for that time. Chances for thunder over
central and W were in good shape. Arthur

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Thursday Night...

Temperatures will be moderate today in the 60s F before big
changes arrive later in the day. This evening around 6 pm, a
front will arrive bringing cooler and wetter conditions through
Friday. Precipitation will start out as rain this evening before
transitioning to snow during the overnight. This will lower
temperatures into the high 20s and low 30s F overnight. This will
lead to challenging road conditions for the Thursday morning
commute.

The setup with this system is favorable for heavy precipitation as
a deepening low in Wyoming turns winds out of the north/northeast
leading to favorable upslope for much of the region. This is
especially true for the Beartooth/Bighorn foothills and
north/northeast facing mountain slopes where greater than 1 inch
of precipitation is likely (60-80%). These locations will also
receive the highest snowfall amounts with 1-2 ft in the mountains
and 6-12 inches being common along the foothills. 2-5 inches of
snowfall will be common for the lower elevations. Locations east
of a line from northern Rosebud to Alzada will see little to no
snow accumulations.

Snow will begin to decrease in intensity Thursday afternoon and
evening. The Thursday evening commute will likely still see
impacts. The system exits the region Thursday night with low
temperatures in the 20s F. Torgerson


Friday through Tuesday...

Light snow may linger into Friday, especially in our southern
upslope areas and perhaps over the east, but there remains
uncertainty here. Recent model trends show the main system pushing
well to our south as we become increasingly impacted by the
secondary Canadian trof as it drops thru eastern MT. Even if this
does happen, and the bulk of the upcoming snow event ends by
Thursday night, the cyclonic flow and cold air aloft under the
trof should be enough for some instability-driven snow showers
Friday. Temps on Friday will of course remain below normal (look
for highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s). Friday night will be
chilly w/ clearing and it could be interesting how cold places
with new snow cover may get.

Brief period of ridging will bring dry/warmer weather on Saturday,
with temps rebounding to the 50s and lower 60s. We transition back
to height falls with next Pacific trof, introducing the next
chance of mountain snow and lower elevation rain showers by
Saturday night. Saturday`s snow melt along the foothills may
produce some modest rises on streams.

Sunday through next Tuesday will be characterized by below normal
heights and broad troffing over the northern Rockies and high
plains. There will be a series of embedded shortwaves in the W-NW
flow, resulting in a fairly high (40-70%) chance of showers each
of these days. Precip above 6kft will stay snow and orographically
favored areas will see persistent (if not heavy) accumulation. Do
not see anything amplified enough to bring cold air into lower
elevations and thus p-type should stay mostly rain, though
periodic mixes with wet snow are possible along the foothills and
higher hills. Temps early next week should generally be in the 50s
for highs and 30s for lows.

Previous shift had mentioned concerns over rain-on-snow for the
foothills early next week. This of course bears watching, but
latest trends show a more zonal/progressive flow w/ shortwaves
early next week, and this would yield precip totals that are not
problematic (totals of a half inch or less most places) with
regard to snow melt. Of course, we are talking about elevations
between 4500-6000 feet...all higher elevations will remain too
cold for melting snow.

JKL

&&

.AVIATION...

18z Discussion...

VFR conditions will prevail for the next several hours. Winds have
begun to pick up across the region from west to east with gusts
around 25kts at KLVM. As a cold front moves through the area
expect a wind shift at all sites, but most notable at KBIL & KSHR.
Winds will be out of the NE (010-030) sustained up to 20kts with
gusts reaching 30kts at KBIL.

Precipitation will also fill in across the region from west to
east starting at KLVM and KBIL around 21z. These should be rain
showers with a slight chance (25%) of seeing a couple lightning
strikes between 21z-03z. A transition to heavy wet snow will start
at KLVM around 03z and spread east to KBIl around 06z and KSHR by
09z. While KMLS and sites eastward will see precipitation,
impacts will be less than the other sites. Snow will stick around
through the rest of the TAF period. Expect widespread IFR
conditions after this transition to snow for the remainder of the
period. Periods of LIFR are certainly a possibility for most
locations as well.

Mountains will be obscured after 21z.
WMR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065 032/041 027/045 028/058 038/057 037/055 036/053
    6/W +9/S    42/S    00/U    14/W    67/W    54/W
LVM 063 029/037 020/042 024/058 036/053 033/052 032/051
    7/T 99/S    41/B    00/U    25/W    67/W    44/W
HDN 066 031/041 026/046 023/059 033/057 036/057 035/055
    5/W 99/O    52/S    00/U    14/W    57/W    55/W
MLS 064 034/044 029/045 026/059 034/060 036/058 035/055
    1/B 96/O    12/S    00/U    02/W    34/W    43/W
4BQ 067 033/040 030/044 025/056 033/059 037/057 037/055
    1/B 89/O    33/S    00/U    02/W    35/W    44/W
BHK 066 031/043 025/044 023/056 030/059 034/055 032/053
    0/B 75/O    12/S    00/U    01/B    24/W    33/W
SHR 068 029/037 024/040 018/053 028/054 031/055 032/052
    3/W 9+/S    74/S    10/U    03/W    47/W    55/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to
      midnight MDT Thursday night FOR ZONES 29-30-57-58-173-235.
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to
      midnight MDT Thursday night FOR ZONES
      34-40-42-63-65-141-170-228.
     Winter Storm Warning in effect from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM
      MDT Friday FOR ZONES 56-66.
     Winter Storm Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to
      noon MDT Friday FOR ZONES 67-68.
     Winter Storm Warning in effect from midnight tonight to noon
      MDT Friday FOR ZONES 138-169-171.
     Winter Storm Warning in effect from 6 PM this evening to
      midnight MDT Thursday night FOR ZONE 172.
WY...Winter Storm Warning in effect from midnight tonight to noon
      MDT Friday FOR ZONES 198-199.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings