Anaconda-Deer, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

606
FXUS65 KMSO 131822
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1222 PM MDT Thu Mar 13 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

-  Snow and slick roads over mountain passes on Thursday afternoon
   and evening

-  A more organized system arrives Sunday bringing more mountain
   snow and valley rain

A cold front has moved through the region, leaving behind showery
and breezy conditions. High-resolution models indicate that winds
will subside in valley locations by this evening but will persist
in the mountains. Showers are expected to linger into tonight
across north-central Idaho and west-central Montana, with light
mountain snow accumulations.

By Friday, the upper flow pattern is forecast to shift westerly
as the trough moves east, bringing scattered showers, especially
in the afternoon.

Model ensembles show a transition to southwesterly flow on
Saturday as the next trough deepens over the western U.S. Forecast
tools indicate an atmospheric river (AR) will drive significant
moisture into the region from Sunday through early Monday. This
influx of moisture brings a 70-80% chance of at least 6 inches of
new snow in the higher elevations of north-central Idaho and
northwest/west-central Montana by Monday morning.

Even valley locations could see light snow, depending on the
timing of precipitation and overnight cooling. This scenario
suggests the potential for a Winter Weather Advisory, particularly
for higher elevations and mountain passes along the Idaho/Montana
border, including Lookout, Lolo, and Lost Trail Passes.

&&

.AVIATION...In the wake of today`s cold front, surface
observations indicate widespread wind gusts of 20-25 knots, with
winds shifting to a westerly direction. High-resolution models
suggest that while winds will diminish in valley locations by this
evening, they will persist in the mountains. A line of convective
showers is currently moving northwest to southeast across the
Northern Rockies, bringing the potential for low ceilings and
reduced visibility, particularly between KSMN and KBTM this
evening. Showers are expected to linger into the night across
north-central Idaho and west-central Montana, leading to terrain
obscuration in affected areas.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$