St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

195
FXUS63 KEAX 181040
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
440 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold and windy today, with highs in the 20s.

- Bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills for tonight through
  Tuesday morning.

- Temperatures likely to rebound to near seasonal normals by
  Wednesday of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

The cold front has moved through the entire CWA, with much
cooler temperatures and gusty northerly winds in place across
the region this morning. Temperatures will continue to fall
through the morning hours, with only marginal temperature
increases during peak heating hours this afternoon. High
temperatures should range from the lower to upper 20s. The 30
mph northerly wind gusts should relax just a bit by later this
morning, but gusts up to 25 mph are expected to continue through
the afternoon hours, making it a brisk afternoon for outdoor
sports activities across the KC area. By late tonight, a
shortwave trough descends out of Canada and into the central
CONUS, deepening the longwave troughing over the area, and
bringing another influx of Arctic air (which shows up quite
well on the theta e analysis) into the region from the north.
With this influx of Arctic air, low temperatures tonight into
Sunday morning should range from the low single digits across
northern Missouri to the higher single digits (and up to 10
degrees) elsewhere. Even though winds should relax a bit,
sustained winds on the order of 10-12 mph and gusts up to 15-20
mph will yield wind chills below zero, with wind chills as cold
as 10 to 15 below zero toward the Iowa border. High temperatures
on Sunday are only likely to reach the low to mid teens, which
would be roughly 25 degrees below normal. Breezy northwesterly
winds will also continue through Sunday afternoon. Surface high
pressure finally moves overhead by Sunday night, relaxing winds,
which will yield strong radiational cooling and overnight lows
ranging from -2 degrees (northern MO) to 3 degrees (toward the
Ozark Plateau).

On Monday, a couple of additional impulses (with attendant vort
maxes) pivoting around the western side of the synoptic scale
longwave upper trough descend out of Canada, with one coming
into the Upper Midwest and another coming across the Pacific
Northwest and digging into the Desert Southwest. This may
develop an area of snow across Kansas on Monday morning and
afternoon. It is possible that this makes it as far east as the
Missouri border, but for now we have kept the forecast dry.
Otherwise, these impulses will just bring another reinforcing
shot of Arctic air, resulting in the coldest temperatures of the
season Monday night into Tuesday morning. At this time, the low
temperatures are forecast to range from as cold as negative 6
degrees across northern MO to as warm as a couple degrees above
zero toward the Ozark Plateau. Meanwhile, wind chills will once
again be below zero, with as cold as 15 below zero toward the
Iowa border.

Well below normal temperatures continue into Tuesday afternoon,
but temperatures should moderate and rebound back toward
seasonal normals by Wednesday, and continue through Friday, with
dry conditions likely prevailing.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1041 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

Cold front has started to move through the area. Patches of VFR
ceilings will continue to move in and out. Winds will be
northwesterly. Expecting gusts between 25 to 30kts overnight,
and will remain above 20 kts for most of Saturday afternoon.
Winds should diminish by Saturday evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...Krull