Rolla, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

932
FXUS63 KSGF 201006
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
506 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chance (<15%) for a few afternoon and early evening
  thunderstorms today. Coverage will be limited with any storms
  that are able to develop.

- High heat and humidity through midweek next week, resulting
  in daily Heat Index values around 100.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

A complex of storms is currently located across northwestern
Missouri into Iowa early this morning. The wind flow direction
is to the east with Corfidi Vectors to the southeast. Storms are
moving east as the complex is sliding southeast currently early
this morning. South of the storms there is a MUCAPE gradient,
however further to the south across our area there is also a cap
in place. The uncapped MUCAPE remains over northern Missouri
and Iowa, so this complex of storms should remain well north of
the area this morning.

High clouds have spread south over the area from the storms to
the north and will linger at least into the morning hours. With
the storms moving east the clouds should start to dissipate
later today, allowing highs to warm into the upper 80s to the
lower 90s this afternoon where clouds clear. If the high clouds
can linger longer across the area today, especially across
central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks, this could result in
slightly cooler temperatures today. Where clouds can clear early
enough today, temperatures should recover quickly this
afternoon with the warm air mass that is in place. Southwesterly
winds will increase and gusty at times later this morning
through the afternoon hours with gusts up to 20 to 30 mph at
times. The warmer conditions and low level moisture will advect
into the region today. As a result humid conditions will occur
across the area this afternoon as heat index values of 94 to 102
degrees this afternoon.

These warm and humid conditions will also result in instability
increasing with the heating of the day and the cap weakening.
Lift will be more limited across the region with the ridge of
high pressure over the region. But will have to watch any
outflows from the storms to the north. Even though the storms to
the north will not move into the area an outflow from the storms
could still move south into portions of the area as the low
level flow ahead of these storms are to the southeast. The
outflow could then be a trigger for a few isolated storms this
afternoon and evening. Coverage will be limited, and deep layer
shear is weak which would result in the storms being pulse in
nature and slow moving. Lightning, very localized heavy rain,
and gusty winds would be the risk with any storms that can
develop this afternoon/early evening. Overall the chances for
storms this afternoon is less than 15% for any given location
across the area and most locations should remain dry. If the
high clouds linger longer into the day and any outflow remains
north of the area will also limit chances.

Lows tonight into Saturday morning will only cool into the lower
to middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

The upper level ridge will remain over the area through the
weekend into early next week. The center of the upper level
ridge will remain just east of of the area. Warm conditions
will occur this weekend into early next week with highs in the
lower 90s and heat index values in the 95 to 105 range each day.
The warmest readings will be to the east of the area under the
high with heat index values likely decreasing to the west. A
drier air mass in the mid levels will also advect into the area
this weekend which will limit instability and pulse storm
potential this week as dry conditions occur. The dry air mass in
the low levels of the atmosphere could also result in some
mixing during the afternoon hours this weekend which will limit
heat index values some.

By the middle of next week the ridge will move slightly move
off to the east and highs in the middle 80s to around 90s are
expected. There will also be some rain chances (20 to 30%) as
early as the middle of next week to the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 506 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Mainly mid to high level clouds are moving across the area early
this morning, there are a few pockets of clouds around 3500
feet across the area but not widespread. These clouds have
developed ahead of a complex of storms that are moving across
northern Missouri and Iowa. The convection should remain north
of the area, but there is a low chance a few showers move into
portions of central Missouri this morning, but this activity
should remain north of the TAF sites.

A few isolated pulse storms may be possible this afternoon
but coverage will be limited if storms can develop at all.
Gusty south to southwesterly winds will develop later this
morning and continue into the early evening hours.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise