Old Jamestown, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

602
FXUS63 KLSX 081829
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
129 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-The weekend will be dry with warming temperatures.

-A warm and active pattern resumes for next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Friday Night)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025

Showers and a few thunderstorms continue to linger across southeast
Missouri and southern Illinois this afternoon under the influence of
a slowly moving mid to upper level low. This feature will finally
kick to the south of our forecast area late this afternoon, and
shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to wane as a result.
Cloud cover will continue to diminish, though portions of southeast
Missouri and southern Illinois that clear last may see clouds linger
overnight.

A surface high will push into the area in the wake of this rain, and
help to keep conditions dry for Friday. Under northeasterly flow
temperatures will remain cool, with highs on Friday near 70.

Delia

&&

.LONG TERM...  (Saturday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025

The surface high will persist across the region as the mid to upper
level low from today stalls across the lower Mississippi Valley for
the weekend, both of which will help keep the region dry through the
weekend. Temperatures will begin to warm a little each day despite
the chilly starts with morning lows in the 40s. High temperatures
will peak in the low to mid 70s Saturday, and upper 70s to low 80s
Sunday.

The stalled mid level low will slide northward Monday, bringing
lobes of vorticity back into the vicinity of the mid-Mississippi
Valley through Tuesday. A surface low will move northward in step
with the mid-level low, increasing precipitation chances Monday and
Tuesday afternoon. Ensemble guidance diverges in how quickly the mid
and surface lows push northward into the forecast area, causing
differences in coverage of precipitation. The mid-level low will
eject eastward out of the forecast area by Wednesday, allowing a mid-
level ridge to build into the area in it`s wake. This will bring a
mid-week minimum in precipitation chances. The mid-level ridge will
push eastward towards the end of the work week, opening the region
up to mid-level disturbances and increasing chances for rain.

Of much higher confidence is the increasing temperature trend from
the weekend through the end of the work week under southwesterly low-
level flow establishes early next week. The interquartile spread for
high temperatures is 3-5F through the seven day period and into next
weekend, and shows an upward trend with highs pushing above
normal.

Delia

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025

This morning`s precipitation has ended across the central Missouri
terminals and is edging eastward out of the St. Louis metro
terminals. At those sites, on/off showers are possible through
19-20Z with KCPS most likely to see precipitation. Thunder
chances are too low to mention, but I cannot rule out a stray
lightning bolt at some point in the early afternoon. KCPS is also
most likely to see MVFR ceilings, associated with this rain,
through mid afternoon. Once the rain moves out, ceilings are
expected to lift to VFR conditions.

Otherwise, VFR flight conditions will dominate the TAF period and
the sky will clear this afternoon into the evening.

Delia

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX