Joplin, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

926
FXUS63 KSGF 131036
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
536 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog and dense fog over the eastern Ozarks into the  mid
morning.

- Above normal temperatures likely this week with near record  high
temperatures Wednesday and record high minimums Wednesday  night.

- Unsettled period from Friday into early next week with a  chance
of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

Synoptic overview and current conditions:  Water vapor imagery and
upper level analysis show the cutoff low which has been sitting over
Louisiana over the past several days has started to lift northeast
into the Tennessee valley as an upper trough begins to shift east
out of the Pacific northwest. We are still getting northerly flow
aloft from the cutoff low. The showers have all ended over the area
with the loss of instability over the region. In the wake of where
the showers formed during the day Monday, we are starting to see fog
develop with visibilities from around 0.75 to 3 miles so far, but
this will likely continue to decline during the overnight.

Rest of the overnight/Tuesday: Will be issuing a dense fog advisory
for the eastern Ozarks with visibilities beginning to drop to a half
mile or less. Areas west of where the rain fell during the day
should be ok with visibilities for the most part.
The fog should dissipate by mid morning in the eastern CWA. The
upper low will continue to transition into the Ohio valley today
with upper ridging shifting into the plains and our western CWA by
the end of the day. Can`t rule out a few showers in the east, but
rain chances will be isolated and confined to our eastern CWA. Will
start to see low level winds transition to a southerly direction
this afternoon and we should warm up into the low 80s in the west.
More clouds in the east should keep temperatures in the mid to upper
70s.

Tonight/Wednesday: Upper ridging transitions eastward into the area
ahead of the next trough and behind the low which lifts into the
Great Lakes region. Low level warm air advection will be in
conjunction with the upper ridging and we should see temperatures
warm into the mid to upper 80s. Low level moisture will increase
ahead of the next Pacific frontal boundary with surface dew points
increasing into the mid 60s to low 70s. The combination of warmer
temperatures and dewpoints will bring afternoon heat index values
into the lower 90s across much of the CWA west of U.S. 65. High
temperatures will approach record highs on Wednesday with near
record or record warmest lows Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

The main upper level wave and surface low will lift northeast well
north of the area. A Pacific cold front will push into the area
Wednesday night into Thursday and should bring a bit cooler air to
the western CWA Thursday, while the east should have warmer
temperatures ahead of the front as highs there approach records in
the upper 80s to low 90s. While instability looks good ahead of the
front on Thursday, a pretty good thermal cap will be in place and we
are not expecting much in the way of convection on Thursday.

Another upper level wave moves through on Friday and could bring
some showers and thunderstorms to the area. The best CAPE/Shear
combo`s look to be over our southeast CWA for any potential stronger
to severe storms.

As we get into the late weekend, southwest flow develops aloft ahead
of a strong upper wave. Some energy moving northeast within this
flow along with a warm front lifting north into the area will be the
focus for more widespread convection late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 534 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

For the 12z TAFS, much of the eastern Ozarks has dense fog and
the western edge of this has spread into BBG/SGF within the past
couple of hours. The fog should burn off by around 14z with VFR
conditions then expected for the remainder of the period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025

Record High Temperatures:

May 14:
KSGF: 88/2018
KJLN: 92/1947
KVIH: 89/1899

May 15:
KSGF: 87/1957
KUNO: 87/1957


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 14:
KSGF: 66/1911

May 15:
KSGF: 67/1941

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ070-071-
     081>083-091-092-096>098-105-106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg
CLIMATE...Burchfield