Picayune, Mississippi 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

689
FXUS64 KLIX 060844
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
344 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Large H3 trough over the SW CONUS will continue to move very slowly
east over the next several days. The flow between this upper cyclone
and the aniticyclone centered over Central America is causing a
strong large area of split flow from the NW gulf to the northern
panhandle of TX. There are boundaries under this split flow and
where they are located is where all of the activity is ongoing this
morning. These boundaries will move through the day with the one
closest to our area(850mb warm frontal sfc) already slowly lifting
back and orienting almost perpendicular to the upper splitting flow.
A number of disturbances(H3 jet pulses) will be kicked out of the
base of the H3 upper trough. One is starting over west TX this
morning and this will be transiting NE then east into LA as more
storm develop to its south throug the day. All of this will
gradually move into our area late today. This will give us the first
real round of heavy rainfall and some strong storms. Most of the
area has been dry a few days, so we should be able to absorb what
rain is around during most of the daylight hours, so the flood watch
starting at 7p looks like a good fit since this is the start of the
first heavy rain issue. There is a slight risk for severe storms at
the moment which will encompass the current boundary edging
northward into the area this morning and the new development later
today moving into the area. Can`t find anything that shows any of
this being sfc based so the only thing that could make it to the sfc
would be hail and looking at some of these storms developing over
the gulf this morning, that would be warranted. So, the highest
severe hazard would be large hail, but we won`t thrown any of the
other variables out even though they are a lower risk since there
are isolated locations along and south of the boundary that could be
sfc based, especially over the open gulf waters. Regradless, the
main outstanding theme here will be water, and lots of it. Wed we
should see ongoing storms during the morning then a several hour
reprieve at least for the northern half of the area. Then
redevelopment as we approach Wed night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Thu will start off wet as storms should continue through a good part
of the day and begin to decay by mid to late afternoon giving most
if not all area a several hour reprieve from the wet stuff. This is
when the large H3 upper low/trough is swinging into the central
plains and the large high move southward through the Great Lakes
forcing the H3 upper low southward into the gulf south which becomes
interesting to say the least. A large sfc low develops as a
reflection of the stacked mid/upper low. This progression occurs
over Fri and Sat. This situtation reignites storms once again early
Fri morning. Some of these could contain hail as well. The unsettled
weather associated with this sfc low does not want to move out very
fast and overstays its welcome through the weekend into the first
half of next week, or at least the synoptic suites agree on this
solution. This would keep sh/ts popping up at random with heavy rain
possible into the new week. Things are changing in these solutions
daily so it will not be surprising to see this scenario change out
this far either.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025

All sites will see cigs lower to MVFR range a few hours after
daylight today. Some RA and TSRA will be associated with these cigs
from time to time and could cause vis to fall to IFR while ongoing.
Generally cigs should remain in MVFR through the day then lower to
IFR levels after dark and remain at those levels into Wed with TSRA
a possibility all night at any given terminal.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025

East winds will slowly rise to 15-20kt today and shift to a SE
direction. Wind speeds should be a bit higher to the west of the
Miss River so we will introduce SCA conditions for some of those
waters mainly for today. Winds are expected to ease by Wed back to
around 10kt. But there will be some storms, some severe, moving into
the coastal waters Wed morning which will be capable of shifting
wind direction and speed rapidly. Even though the general winds
should be southerly, numerous storms around the coastal waters will
definitely shift wind directions and speeds today through the
weekend. A cold front may move into the coastal waters by Fri or
over the weekend shifting winds to north.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  65  78  64 /  80  80  80  60
BTR  80  69  79  67 /  90  90  90  70
ASD  79  68  80  66 /  70  70  90  70
MSY  82  72  81  70 /  70  70  90  80
GPT  78  68  79  67 /  70  70  90  70
PQL  79  66  81  65 /  60  70  80  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday evening for
     LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for GMZ550-570.

MS...Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday evening for
     MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for GMZ570.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE