Natchez, Mississippi 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

388
FXUS64 KJAN 221559 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
958 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 943 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

A few light showers remain mostly south of I-20 this morning but
coverage will diminish through the day with very little in terms
of total accumulation. Visible satellite reveals thinning clouds
overall north of I-20 and some breaks in the overcast are likely
over the next several hours. Showers then return late tonight
spreading from south to north. 1-2 " of rain is likely in the
vicinity of highway 84 which could result in some ponding on
roadways and low-lying areas. Severe hazards nor flash flooding
are expected with this activity. /86/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 410 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Today through Sunday night: Very cold air has moderated
significantly over the forecast area with increased zonal flow
aloft, but strong surface high pressure centered over the Lower MS
to OH Valley regions will maintain chilly temperatures through
the weekend. Moist isentropic ascent ahead of a weak shortwave
trough is most likely producing very light precipitation into
western portions of our area early this morning, and some of this
could be in the form of a few inconsequential flurries and/or
sleet pellets. Have held off on including any mention of mixed
pcpn this morning given there will be no impact.

Going through tonight into Sunday, another shortwave trough will
approach, and unlike the preceding trough, it will bring strong
moisture transport and warming aloft resulting in what should be
widespread showers mainly along/south of the I-20 corridor by
Sunday afternoon. Because the near surface air will be slow to
modify, there is a low but reasonable chance that precip could
briefly be in the form of freezing rain at the onset. With
temperatures very marginal and only briefly supportive, will hold
off on explicitly including this in the forecast. In any case,
substantial rainfall is expected over southern portions of the
forecast area, particularly along/south of the Highway 84
corridor where in excess of an inch is forecast. Considerable
cloud and/or precip coverage will keep high temperatures over most
of the area well below normal. /EC/

Monday through next weekend: Temperatures will moderate in the
longer term with a fairly quiet pattern in the upcoming week. W/NW
flow aloft will promote fairly dry conditions with near to slightly
above normal temperatures. Ridging will build Tuesday into Wednesday
and bring a brief warm up early to mid week, with temperatures
warming into the 70s. By Thursday, an upper trough and associated
surface cold front will push in from the north and bring
temperatures back to normal for the remainder of the week. This
front could bring a few showers Thursday, but overall the airmass in
its wake is rather dry, so any rain that does occur should shut off
fairly quickly. High pressure becomes reestablished by
Friday/Saturday and will allow a return of highs in the 70s for the
weekend. /SAS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

VFR conditions and light surface wind will prevail through the
forecast period. Warm advection aloft is bringing a blanket of
higher level stratus (4500+ ft) and even some very light mixed
pcpn to the area early this morning, but the coverage/intensity do
not support including in the TAFs. Looking ahead to just beyond
the forecast period, lower ceilings and increasing rain coverage
are expected Sunday. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       51  33  47  35 /  10  10  70  20
Meridian      52  31  50  34 /   0   0  50  30
Vicksburg     50  34  47  35 /  10  10  70  10
Hattiesburg   56  36  51  38 /  10  20  70  50
Natchez       53  38  48  38 /  20  30  90  20
Greenville    45  31  48  33 /  10   0  20   0
Greenwood     48  29  50  33 /  10   0  20   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LP/SAS20/EC