Horn Lake, Mississippi 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

604
FXUS64 KMEG 111658
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1158 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1151 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

- Warm and humid conditions are expected across the Mid-South,
  with high temperatures generally in the low to mid 90s and heat
  index values in the low 100s.

- Scattered shower and thunderstorms chances continue with a 30%
  to 50% chance each day generally in the afternoon. A few storms
  could produce heavy rainfall and / or strong winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Thursday)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

We are firmly entrenched in weak southwest flow aloft due to an
upper level ridge over the southeastern CONUS. This typical
summertime pattern leads to warm, moist Gulf air putting a tinge of
humidity on the heat each afternoon. In addition, the extra moisture
will encourage scattered thunderstorms each afternoon that will
quickly diminish after sunset. PoPs will generally be in the 20-40%
range through the end of the weekend, though spatial coverage is
expected to be very sporadic. Not everyone will see rain, but those
that do will get a brief respite from the heat and humidity. On that
note, given the heat indices for today being just below Heat
Advisory criteria (105 degrees), opted not to issue any heat
headlines for today. HREF probabilities of MaxApT > 105 today is
less than 30% for the vast majority of the area.

Moving into next work week, the pattern remains very loosely
organized through the end of the forecast period. A broad surface
high over the eastern seaboard combined with a weak cold front
approaching from the northern Plains will keep us in this warm, wet
pattern. Once again, there is just enough moisture being introduced
to the region by the upper level flow to encourage spotty showers
and thunderstorms each day next week. Afternoon highs are expected
to hover in the mid 90s again with heat indices flirting with 105
degrees. Since forecast heat indices are so close to Heat Advisory
criteria each day next week, heat headline decisions will most
likely be made on a day-to-day basis. This isn`t necessarily a slam
dunk heatwave next week, but it will be hot each day as upper level
ridging prevails. Extended period late next week into the weekend
also looks like a persistence forecast of hot and mostly dry.

CAD

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

VFR outside of any on station thunderstorms. Maintained PROB30
thunderstorms at JBR and TUP this afternoon. Low confidence (below
30%) of any convection near MEM and JBR this afternoon, but
tomorrow storms should be more numerous across all terminals. Will
carry a PROB30 tomorrow afternoon for MEM, and likely JBR, TUP
and MKL in later updates. West to southwest winds should remain
3-6 kts keeping fog very limited and increase to near 10kt
tomorrow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

No fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future. MinRH
values will remain above 40% through the period, with hot afternoons
and thunderstorm chances each day. Wetting rain is not expected
through the next 7 days; rain will mostly be in the form of
scattered convection.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...JDS