Greenwood, Mississippi 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

263
FXUS64 KJAN 122007
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
307 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Tonight and Tomorrow...

The shortwave trough over southern Texas will continue its eastward
push towards the ArkLaMiss region later tonight as the sfc ridge
exits our forecast area and pushes off to the east towards Alabama.
Global guidance is highlighting a small bowing segment in the
ArkLaTex region pushing eastward towards our forecast area by
midnight. The moisture return in response at this point is still
meager at best, however the strong deep layer shear around 50 to 60
kts in the presence of steep mid level lapse rates (around 8 C/km,
30-32 vertical totals) will help promote hail, and a greater wind
potential despite the less than ideal boundary layer conditions. A
few adjustments were made to the severe graphic for tonight and
portions of north Mississippi, including parts of southeast Arkansas
and a few of our northeast Louisiana parishes, have been upgraded to
a "Slight" Risk (2 out of 5). Elsewhere, the "Marginal" Risk (1 out
of 5) for isolated severe storms remains the same for our northern
areas tonight through early Thursday morning. Overnight lows will
drop into the upper 50s mainly for areas along and east of I-55.
Areas west of I-55 will see nighttime temperatures in the low 60s.

Storms will continue to spread eastward into north-central and
eastern Mississippi early Thursday morning through noon as the
shortwave trough continues its east track across our CWA. Rain
chances will come to an end Thursday afternoon as the shortwave
trough exits our forecast area and continues its eastward push
towards Alabama with a few lingering showers possible across east
Mississippi. Sky conditions should start to improve by late
afternoon Thursday. Areas north of I-20 will see highs in the upper
70s. Elsewhere, areas along and south of I-20 will see highs in the
low 80s. /CR/

Thursday night through next Tuesday:

A brief break in rainfall is expected Thursday night as the earlier
storm system moves out of the area. Breezy winds are expected
majority of Friday as a 4-6 mb pressure gradient develop between the
two storm systems. An active weather pattern will begin as severe
storms are expected both Friday and Saturday. A strong low pressure
centered near the upper Mississippi Valley will lift a warm front
northward, pushing mid-60 dewpoints and strong deep-layer shear (50-
60 kts) into the area Friday afternoon. Although moisture and shear
will be in place, severe weather will be dependent on how far north
the warm front moves and interactions with the instability. With
that being said, the severe threat will be ongoing late Friday
afternoon into early Saturday morning with all severe weather
hazards possible. A few adjustments were made to the severe
graphic and the Enhanced Risk (3 out of 5) was extended south of
the I-20 corridor.

A potent, upper-lvl trough will migrate towards the CWA from the
Southwest region, pushing a cold front towards the southeast region.
As the trough approaches, an upper-lvl jet will help increase bulk
shear and instability areawide; resulting in a favorable severe
weather environment. With mid-60s dewpoints in place and strong
shear/SRH values, severe thunderstorms will be likely with all
hazards. A significant severe weather threat is likely all day
Saturday. Damaging winds (70mph+), large hail (2" or greater),
and tornadoes (with a few strong tornadoes possible) will be the
significant threat. In addition to the previously mentioned
hazards, heavy rain rates within storms will bring a limited
threat for low- lying flash flooding and minor river flooding for
Saturday. The cold front is expected to be out of the area by
Saturday evening, bringing an end to the severe weather threat.

Ridging pattern will filter in as the frontal boundary moves out of
the region. Expect cooler temps (insert temps)on Sunday but as the
week progresses, temps will reach the low/mid 70s. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

VFR conditions will continue to prevail across our entire forecast
area to start off the TAF period. Southerly winds will continue to
be gusty, sustained up to 15 mph & gusts up to 20-25 mph through
this late afternoon timeframe before lighten later this evening.
Light rain showers will occur across several northern TAF sites,
(low probs at GLH, GWO & GTR) along with MVFR/iFR ceilings, will
move in across central MS shortly after 08Z Thursday. Several
southern TAF sites (PIB, HBG, and HEZ) will see ceilings fall to
IFR/LIFR by 10Z Thursday due to low stratus and patchy fog. A brief
period of low-level wind shear will occur at GLH between 04-07Z
Thursday. Ceilings will improve to MVFR/VFR by 16Z Thursday with VFR
ceilings prevailing by Thursday afternoon. /CR/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       59  82  59  83 /  10  10   0  20
Meridian      56  80  58  84 /  10  20   0  10
Vicksburg     60  82  59  83 /  30   0   0  30
Hattiesburg   57  83  59  84 /   0   0   0  10
Natchez       60  82  59  82 /  10   0   0  30
Greenville    60  77  59  80 /  50  10   0  30
Greenwood     60  78  60  82 /  40  20   0  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

CR/SW/CR