Greenwood, Mississippi 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

901
FXUS64 KJAN 251414 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
914 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 859 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Mid morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed a shortwave
trough axis over our CWA just east of the Mississippi river. This
shortwave was already leading to convection across the northwest
half of our CWA. Aided by a weak MCV the convection along Highway
82 earlier this morning resulted in rainfall rates in excess of
two inches per hour that prompted a Flash Flood Warning for
portions of that area that have received significant rainfall the
past several days. The convection overall has weakened over the
last hour but some storms in our southwest may still produce
strong gusty winds and small hail. The convection is expected to
continue spreading east today as the shortwave shifts east. With
daytime heating the convection is expected to strengthen and a few
strong storms will be possible especially over east Mississippi.
Satellite imagery also showed a couple more subtle shortwaves
upstream that should help develop additional convection in our
west later this afternoon and evening. The chance for rain has
been increased with this update based on latest radar trends. /22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Through Sunday: We remain in a regime somewhat reminiscent of an
active summertime pattern, with a tropical humid airmass and
diurnal convection augmented by mesoscale features which result in
some activity persisting into the night. This morning, a more
pronounced shortwave and MCV feature were sustaining shower and
thunderstorm activity across north LA and southeast AR. These
features appear likely to continue to be key players through the
day, forcing continued convection as they move eastward across the
region during the daytime, with daytime heating driving
additional development further south of the current activity.
Coverage should drop off fairly quickly this evening with the loss
of daytime heating and the disturbance shifting to our east.
Saturday looks a bit less active as shortwave ridging briefly
builds in, but scattered mostly diurnal convection is still
possible within the moist airmass. As one more upper disturbance
rolls across late Saturday into Sunday, we could again see
upstream convection work its way toward the area as soon as
Saturday night, with additional diurnal shower and storm coverage
during the day Sunday.

Over each of these days, deep layer flow will be marginal for
organized convection, but there could be enough instability to
overcome that and result in a few brief stronger storms. With
slower storm motions and PW surpassing 1.5" at times, localized
flooding cannot be ruled out either.

Monday through Thursday: Upper ridging will temporarily build in
early next week, finally resulting in a break in rain chances for
the most part. It will still be warm and somewhat humid, however.
High temperatures may approach 90F in some areas, which is still a
quite above average.

During the middle to latter portion of the week, upper troughing
will begin to expand into the central CONUS again, nudging a cold
front toward the Mid South once again and the upper level
disturbance track closer to our area. This will yield an increase
in potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms through the
end of the week. As the front nudges closer to the area, there
could be potential for somewhat more organized convection, moreso
over the northwestern portions of the area, in the Thursday
- Friday time frame. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 714 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

MVFR to LIFR stratus & potential IFR vsby/fog are ongoing in
central to southeast TAF sites due to high humidity & recent
rains. Timing will persist through around 25/15Z Friday before
some improvement to VFR flight categories. Rain showers & low
probs of storms (20-40%) are ongoing in northwest TAF sites while
later (29/16-20Z) elsewhere. Light southwesterly winds will
prevail through the 06Z TAF period. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       81  64  85  65 /  70  10  30  10
Meridian      83  62  86  63 /  70  20  30  10
Vicksburg     81  64  85  66 /  70  10  30  10
Hattiesburg   86  64  89  66 /  50  20  20  10
Natchez       80  65  84  66 /  60  10  20  10
Greenville    81  67  83  66 /  90  10  40  30
Greenwood     81  65  85  66 /  90  10  40  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/DL/DC