St. Cloud, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

596
FXUS63 KMPX 040628
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1228 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An Arctic front brings plummeting temperatures & light snow
  showers tomorrow morning. A slick AM commute is possible.

- Northwest winds gust to 40-50 mph behind the front late
  tomorrow morning through tomorrow evening. Reduced visibility
  from blowing snow is possible across west-central Minnesota.

Temperatures trend warmer into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

Southerly flow today has allowed for temepratures to rebound
nicely since this morning, with highs reaching the 30s this
afternoon across southwest Minnesota. This return to near-normal
temperatures will be brief however, as an Arctic cold front is
set to invade the region overnight through tomorrow morning.
Conditions are dry ahead of the front, but enough forcing looks
to be present to generates scattered to widespread light
showers along the front as it passes through the area tomorrow
morning. A few hours of light snow showers will begin by 4-5 am
across west-central MN, 5-7 AM for central MN/Twin Cities
metro/northwest WI, & 7-9 AM for far-southern MN & west-central
WI. Potential accumulations are expected to very light, less
than half an inch, but will be accompanied by plummeting
temperatures behind the front. This could lead to a slick AM
commute across the area, especially where any heavier snow
showers occur.

Gusty northwest winds quickly develop behind the frontal
passage, with the pressure gradient continuing to tighten
through the day as the area becomes sandwiched between a
deepening low pressure over the Great Lakes & an area of strong
high pressure advancing out of the Canadian prairies. The gusts
will become even stringer by late morning, as strengthening
cold advection allows for deeper mixing to occur. Wind gusts of
40-50 mph look likely across much of Minnesota where a Wind
Advisory has been issued, with slightly weaker gusts closer to
35-40 mph across western Wisconsin. The winds remain gusty
through sunset, with speeds beginning to diminish after
midnight as the Canadian high pressure becomes more centered
over the region.

As mentioned above, temperatures will plummet behind the front
with high temperatures occurring early Wednesday morning.
Temperatures will plummet through the teens through the
afternoon and into the single digits by evening, with below-zero
temperatures looking likely across western Minnesota by
morning. The strong northwest winds will make it feel even more
miserable, for lack of a better word, with below-zero wind
chills by afternoon eventually bottoming out between -10 to -20
degrees by morning. Temepratures remain cold Thursday under the
continued influence of Canadian high pressure with highs
remaining in the teens, albeit with less wind.

The area of high pressure slides south of the region by Friday,
ushering in a continued stretch of southerly flow and warmer
temperatures into the weekend. Upper level ridging even develops
over the Upper Midwest this weekend, allowing a return to
above- normal temperatures for the first time in over a week.
Highs in the mid to upper 30s are all but guaranteed, and could
reach 40 across southern Minnesota Saturday and area-wide on
Sunday. Deterministic & ensemble guidance continues to highlight
a potential system during the late Sunday/Monday timeframe that
will likely bring us our next chance for widespread
precipitation. However, guidance remains varied on the amount
of cold air available with this system, meaning precipitation
type remains uncertain between a warmer all-rain scenario, and a
colder scenario with the potential for rain & a wintry mix of
snow/freezing rain. Confidence is high in the return to colder,
likely below-normal, temperatures midweek behind this system

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1125 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

A solid deck of MVFR stratus is quickly pushing southeast across
northwest Minnesota behind the incoming cold front.
Southwesterly winds will shift more west/northwesterly
overnight, and increase through daybreak on Wednesday. As
temperatures continue to warm up, some of the latest models are
hinting at potential for a brief 1-2 hour period of freezing
drizzle before switching over to all snow. Confidence is too low
to include in the TAFs at this time, but timing would place it
either right at the start of the tempo groups or about an hour
beforehand. Scattered snow showers are likely (50-70%) during
the early morning, but could linger into the afternoon/evening
as the system moves east. These showers will be highly
variable, so it is difficult to pinpoint a specific time and
are best represented by the tempo groups. Periods of reduced
visibility are possible where the heaviest showers move through.
Strong northwest winds prevail Wednesday afternoon and evening,
with gusts between 30 to 40 knots.

KMSP...Winds have started to shift more westerly as the front
approaches from the northwest. The MVFR stratus has made good
time, thus pushing the most likely arrival time somewhere
between 08-09z. With temps still warming, if we build enough a
warm layer near the surface, it is possible to see a brief 1-2
hour window of freezing drizzle. Most likely time at MSP would
be around 11-13z if this were to occur. We should cool down
enough after then for a switch over to all precip falling as
snow. Snow showers then continue on and off throughout the
morning. As we head into the afternoon and evening, soundings
dry out pretty quickly. Showers could persist longer if the
saturated layer falls within the DGZ or if we do not dry out as
quickly as models predict.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM CST Wednesday for Anoka-Benton-
     Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-Douglas-
     Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec-
     Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-
     Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-
     Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift-
     Todd-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...BED