Rochester, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

051
FXUS63 KARX 180930
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
330 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Bitter cold temperatures are expected through the weekend and
  into early next week. Dangerous wind chills of -25 to -35F
  will be possible tonight into Tuesday, with a few locations
  potentially dropping near -40F Tuesday morning.

- Temperatures look to moderate back towards normal mid to late
  week. While a dry forecast remains for now, will be monitoring
  potential for light snow chances late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

Today - Tuesday:

After a couple of mild days to end the week, the main focus of the
forecast has turned to the bitter cold temperatures and
dangerous wind chills tonight through Tuesday as an arctic
airmass overspreads the area. Observations around 08Z showed
temperatures across the area in the teens to 20s, with single
digits not too far upstream. Temperatures will continue to fall
into the afternoon, hanging around the single digits to teens
for a time before plummeting into the single digits and low
teens below zero Sunday morning. There remains high confidence
that advisory criteria will be met as wind chills hit -25 to
-35F. As a result an area-wide Cold Weather Advisory remains in
effect for Saturday night through Sunday morning. The main core
of arctic air looks to arrive Sunday night and through Monday
night when guidance shows 850 mb temperatures falling to around
-30C over the region (0.5 percentile of climatology). Resulting
 highs are expected to only reach into the low single digits
 above and below zero, with lows ranging in the single digits
 below to around 20 below zero. Wind chills ranging from -25 to near
-40F (lowest Tuesday morning) will necessitate additional cold
weather headlines through the period (please see below for
additional thoughts).

Headlines: As mentioned above, an area-wide Cold Weather Advisory
will be in effect from 9 PM tonight to noon on Sunday. However, with
a significant improvement in apparent temperatures not expected
during the daytime hours, have extended the advisory through Monday
morning for portions of southeast Minnesota through west/north-
central Wisconsin. While locations may not be hitting criteria at
all hours, any small bump in winds would work to keep wind chills
colder and thinking that the prolonged nature of the cold will
continue to keep cold-related impacts elevated. Similar thinking for
Monday afternoon into Tuesday night where confidence is highest in
advisory level cold across portions of southeast Minnesota and north-
central Wisconsin. Given the potential need for a warning upgrade,
have only extended to 03Z Tuesday to allow time to assess and
further refine headlines.

In addition, while the forecast overall remains dry through the
period, will not completely rule out potential for some flurries
here and there with the cold air and various waves moving through
the flow.

Wednesday - End of Next Week:

Temperatures look to moderate after Tuesday as heights aloft rise.
Given larger spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles of
ensemble guidance mid-week, there is a bit lower confidence in how
this evolves. However, overall a general increasing trend back above
zero and towards normal is noted across ensemble solutions through
the end of next week. Some signal in guidance for light snow
potential as a wave passes through Wednesday into Thursday and then
perhaps again towards the end of the week. Still some
variability, and with low confidence this far out, will remain
with the blended model guidance for now.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1056 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

The cold front has pushed through the area with gusty northwest
winds and scattered flurries in its wake. Ceilings are variable
VFR/MVFR with some breaks in the clouds over parts of Minnesota.
The HREF shows decreasing low level RH, thus held on to some
scattered flurries for a few hours overnight, then improved
conditions to VFR. Mid clouds advance over the Saturday. The
HREF increases low level rh again sometime later
afternoon/evening, with reinforcing cold air, thus could see
some MVFR ceilings return. Northwest winds mostly 14 to 22kts
with gusts 22 to 30kts continue into Saturday evening.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST
     Sunday for WIZ054-061.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST
     Monday for WIZ032>034-041>044-053-055.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CST
     Monday for WIZ017-029.
MN...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST
     Monday for MNZ079-088-096.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CST
     Monday for MNZ086-087-094-095.
IA...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST
     Sunday for IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EMS
AVIATION...Zapotocny