Moorhead, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

951
FXUS63 KFGF 131128
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
628 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions today due to low humidity and
  wind.

- Winds will again gust up to 50 mph today within the Red River
  valley, which will lead to areas of blowing dust.

- Widespread rain late Wednesday night though Friday with a 60
  percent chance for 1 inch or more of rain over eastern North
  Dakota Wednesday night thru Friday night.

- There is a low (5%) chance for severe weather Wednesday early
  evening in parts of southeast North Dakota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

Band of high clouds from Langdon to Bismarck, otherwise skies
clear. No mid level showers. Question in regards to winds today
do that get as strong as past days or into advisory range within
the valley. Winds have been outperforming guidance so feel like
to err on caution is the best way to go.   No changes made.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

...Synopsis...

A third day of record highs are anticipated today along with
gusty south winds up to 50 mph within the Red River valley Fargo
and north. Similar to past days, lowest RH values reach the
teens percent all areas giving critical fire weather conditions
for all the forecast area mid morning thru early evening.

Went a few degrees above model guidance again today like in past
2 days. Blending in higher HRRR, which gives highs mid to upper
90s Fargo and north, with highest temps again likely far
northern RRV. Do look for warmer temps back west into DVL basin
too. South winds all areas today, and despite bufkit soundings
showing only 30-35 kts to mix down from 800 mb, went higher as
the past two days over performed. Net result...I see little
reason to deviate from what it was yesterday in the valley.
Winds will remain considerably less in the southeast fcstd area
(Wadena, Park Rapids) area where gusts 25/30 mph more likely.

Another short wave and sfc low last evening gave t-storms to
south central into east central Saskatchewan into west central
Manitoba...and the front is expected to move east and the wind
shift likely to reach near Rolla, Rugby areas by 00z Wed.
Various CAMs and global models such as Canadian and GFS show
some high based t-storm devevelopment along the frontal
bounday 00z-03z in our far NW fcst area north and west of
Langdon thru Cando to Harvey ND area. Think this activity
weakens but may linger for a while into tonight in the far
northwest fcst area. Dont see this precip pushing east tonight
as upper level lift and sfc low re-organize ahead of main 500 mb
wave that will be moving into Wyoming by Wed AM.

...5 pct chc severe Wed eve SE ND...

Wednesday will see the core of heat weaken and also south winds
weaken and turn southeast ahead of main surface low that will be
forming near the Upper low that Wednesday afternoon will be into
eastern Wyoming. Southeast sfc wind will bring up a narrow zone
of 60 dew pts thru eastern SD into south central ND by 00z Thu.
Do anticipate a band of strong, possibly severe storms in a
narrow zone from south central ND into central SD in this more
moist zone and just ahead of 500 mb trough in area of mid level
jet and synoptic lift. By 03z the t-storm band will moving
east-northeast and likely entering parts of SE ND 03z-06z Thu
but likely are less intense as the MUCAPE weakens considerably.

...Probs for 1 inch or more of rain 60 percent in E ND Wed
night-Fri...

Prefer the ECMWF handling of upper wave and sfc low as it moves
into northern MN Thursday. Looking for widespread rain west of
this low and in def zone of upper low which looks to target
western Manitoba into central and parts of E ND with favorable
environment for significant rains. More convfective showers and
t-storms for northern MN Thursday-Thursday night and rain
amounts more variable. Rain chances continue Friday as upper low
only slowly moves east.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

Like the past few days...wind is the main factor. South winds
today. Overall winds aloft doesnt support as strong of winds as
Sunday or Monday, but leary of that as each day has outperformed
guidance. Hence have it windier than most guidance in the
valley. Skies clear to some cirrus. Front to enter far NW fcst
area tonight...may shift winds at DVL airport to the northeast.




&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

Expect the same forecast today as the past two days, with peak
winds (gusts 40-50 mph) and temperatures in the Red River
valley along with widespread RH values in the teens late morning
thru the afternoon. Farther east, less wind into the MN trees
but fuels are very dry there and RH values will be in the teens
as well. Same for DVL basin, where RH values in the teens today
and wind gusts 25-35 mph.

Winds less on Wednesday and RH values upper teens and 20s on
Wednesday, so more borderline critical fire weather conditions.


Finally Thursday will see widespread precipitation and cooler
temps suppressing the fire weather threat for late week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

Record High Temperatures:

May 13 (Tuesday):
NWS FGF/UND: 92/1932
KGFK: 93/1977
KFAR: 95/1894
KPKD: 91/1900
KBDE: 88/1932

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle
FIRE WEATHER...Riddle/JR
CLIMATE...TT