Moorhead, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

923
FXUS63 KFGF 221330
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
730 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above freezing temperatures this weekend into next week,
  resulting in some melting of the snowpack.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 720 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

There is a group of convective-like showers moving southeast
through southern Manitoba early this morning. Forecast soundings
around this area show a relatively small but unstable, saturated
layer atop a shallow but noteworthy dry layer. Winnipeg radar
(CASWL) is sampling reflectivity values nearing 30dbz, which
lends some indication that precip production aloft should be
enough to allow a chance for what is likely snow/graupel to
survive through the dry layer reaching the surface.

Confidence is low on whether or not this collection of showers
will continue or diminish before reaching into the Lake of the
Woods region mid morning, but objective guidance (and water
vapor imagery) hints that it is attached to a small finger of
vorticity that is progged to sweep through this area into the
early afternoon.

With the possibility of snow/graupel from this activity to reach
the ground in the Lake of the Woods region between mid morning
into early afternoon, added some PoPs to the forecast. Overall
impacts will be nill given the likely very low precipitation
amounts. Additionally, warming surface temperatures by late
morning should help mitigate any potential for snow/ice
accumulation on surfaces.

UPDATE
Issued at 532 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Clouds are increasing along the Canadian border, and these
should drop southeast, mainly affecting northwest Minnesota
this morning. Will bump up sky amounts to try to match up to
this trend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

...Synopsis...

Quite the range in temperatures across the FA early this
morning. The steadiest winds seem to be along the western edge
of the Red River Valley, from Valley City to Walhalla.
Temperatures are generally holding in the middle 20s from
Northwood to Park River to Walhalla. Meanwhile, winds are fairly
light yet over the far southern Valley into west central
Minnesota (the most recent snow area), so temperatures have
dipped into the single digits there. Cloud cover is patchy, so
there will be partly cloudy periods as well as cloudy ones.
Overall, the pattern remains consistent, with northwest flow
aloft, bringing periodic minor shortwaves through the FA. Have
been watching the Sunday and Monday ones for a few days now, and
the Sunday one remains weaker and further north. Meanwhile, the
Monday one is less consistent in track, strength, and potential
precipitation amounts. Additional waves show up Tuesday night,
Wednesday night, and Friday.

...Warm temperatures...

The warming trend definitely diminishes the potential impacts
from any of these weak shortwaves, as the precipitation type
may be more rain than snow. For tonight, it looks like wind
speeds may drop off more than previously thought, which could
throw some fog into the equation. Not seeing a consistent signal
in the visibility guidance for tonight, but winds remain lowest
the longest along and east of the Valley. Wind speeds still pick
up on Sunday, although westerly winds typically are not that
strong for this FA. The steadiest winds look to be across the
Devils Lake region and along the western edge of the Valley,
from Northwood to Walhalla. Highs on Sunday in these areas look
to be in the upper 30s, so confidence in any snow drifting (and
any blow ice potential) is low. Have tried to manually adjust
highs today through Monday to show the warmest areas being the
pine trees of our eastern FA, along the Dakotas border, and the
relatively snow free area from Grand Forks to Grafton.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 532 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Starting to see some indications for fog tonight. Confidence is
not that high at this point though, as it appears there will be
some clouds hanging around. For now, just mentioned 5SM BR as a
starting point. Some models are also showing stratus developing,
but will keep things at SCT025 for now. Later shifts can make
finer scale adjustments if these trends continue.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon/CJ
DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...Godon