Maplewood, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

240
FXUS63 KMPX 232039
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
239 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Two cold fronts over the next week will send highs from around
  40 this weekend, down into the 20s and low 30s mid week, then
  teens and 20s over Thanksgiving weekend.

- A mix of rain and snow Sunday night into Monday morning with
  minimal accumulations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Although not low stratus, it`s still cloudy as mid & upper level
clouds from the remnants of what was one of the strong storms to
impact the Pac NW last week moves across the northern Plains. We`ll
continue to see plenty of cloud cover the rest of the weekend,
though forecast soundings don`t show the depth of atmospheric
saturation being enough to support precip until Sunday evening.
Tonight, that cloud cover will remain of the mid/upper level
variety, but as southeast winds become established on Sunday and
weak WAA picks up, we`ll likely see low stratus develop. That
stratus is expected to develop in western MN first, closer to an
inverted trough/cold front that will be moving across the Dakotas
during the day, with stratus spreading east Sunday afternoon as that
trough approaches western MN.

As for Sunday night, we`re seeing models come into better agreement
on the timing/placement of forcing for precipitation and are showing
that it is increasingly likely we`ll see a rain and snow mix across
the MPX area Sunday evening into early Monday morning. The primary
upper air feature will be an h5 low going across southern Canada
Sunday night and northeast MN on Monday. However, within the
westerly flow to the south of this low, a shortwave is forecast to
eject out of WY/CO on Sunday, going across MN/IA Sunday night and WI
on Monday. The combination of PVA ahead of the shortwave, WAA ahead
of the inverted trough, and weak low level convergence along that
boundary will all work together to create light precipitation north
of the upper MN Valley Sunday night. The highest precipitation
totals still look to fall north of I-94, but most EPS members show
at least light precip as far south as Mankato. Because of that, we
expanded mentionable PoPs quite a bit to the southwest Sunday night,
while also introducing some likely PoPs north of I-94 in WI. For P-
type, forecast sounding and CAM output show this being a rain or
snow scenario based on surface temperatures. Given the overnight
timing, much of it will be snow. QPF looks light, so snow amounts
look light as well, though the HREF LPMM QPF shows potential for
0.10" of QPF down to the US-8 corridor in northwest WI, which if
that were to happen would likely translate to an inch or two of snow.

For Thanksgiving week, the big story continues to be the first taste
of arctic air we`ll see this season coming over the holiday weekend.
Our first cool down will come with the passage of that inverted
trough/front Sunday night/Monday morning. This will knock highs back
into the 20s/low 30s for Monday through Thursday. It looks dry for
the first half of the week, with a low looking to get spun up in the
southern stream Tuesday night that will head across the mid-MS
Valley on Wednesday and Ohio Valley on Thanksgiving, to far south
for us to get anything meaningful out of it at this point, though
there is an increasing signal for impactful snowfall accumulations
Wed/Thu from the Quad Cities over to Cleveland, something to keep an
eye on if you have some long distance travel plans. For us,
Thanksgiving Day proper is when the arctic front arrives. It will be
moisture starved, though there could very well be enough moisture
present with the forcing to squeeze out some light snow. The biggest
impact of this boundary will be the well below normal temperatures
we`ll have to end the month. If you`re one that wants to relive the
glory days of the 90s by camping out in front of one of your
favorite stores Thursday night to get an early jump on Black Friday
deals, you better bundle up, as we`ll likely have sub-zero wind
chills to start Black Friday. For the rest of the weekend, if
anything, the NBM is running a little warm as the bias corrected
data set it is trained on was trained on what up until this point
has been the warmest fall on record. This means that just getting
out of the teens for highs may be difficult to do Friday through
Sunday. As for your travel plans for the end of the holiday weekend,
it looks cold and dry and so long as you`re not trying to drive
downwind of a Great Lake, you shouldn`t run into any weather issues
on the roads.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1127 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Late morning satellite trends reveal that any gaps in VFR cloud
deck are quickly replaced by high clouds streaming in from the
Dakotas. We expect this theme to continue through the afternoon,
with cloud bases generally above 10k feet. Uncertainty grows
after 6z, as guidance varies on the eventual arrival of MVFR or
lower stratus. Latest RAP soundings are very aggressive, suggesting
that all sites will flirt with MVFR cigs by daybreak Sunday. We
have opted to trend the TAFs a little slower, which leans towards
the blended HREF solution. In doing this, MVFR ceilings arrive
prior to daybreak at AXN/RWF, spreading east towards STC/MKT by
13/14z, and then reaching MSP by midday. RNH/EAU aim to remain
VFR through the 18z period. Despite the timing challenges associated
with the arrival of low ceilings, we have high confidence that
MVFR (or lower) conditions will prevail all the way into Monday
morning. The mention of light wintry precipitation may need to
be added in forthcoming TAFs. Winds turn easterly between 5-15
kts Sunday.

KMSP...No additional concerns outside of the uncertainty
associated with the arrival of MVFR ceilings discussed above.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR/MVFR, chc -RASN early. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...Strus