Eagan, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

095
FXUS63 KMPX 180809
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
209 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills through Tuesday.

- No significant precipitation chances expected over at least
  the next 7 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

The arctic air has arrived, with 24 hour temperature changes
currently sitting in the 20 to 30 degrees colder range. Cold air
will continue to pour into the region until Monday, which is when we
see our h85 temps bottom out around -32C, which is 3 standard
deviations below normal and puts us down in the 0.5 percentile of
the reanalysis dataset. NBM lows and highs for today through Monday
night are running close to the 75th percentile, which is actually
reasonable given the lack of snow. If we had a real snow pack, we
would likely be looking at widespread lows in the -20s F by Tuesday
morning, but the bare ground will keep those -20s confined to
central MN and northwest WI. We`ll also see widespread sub-zero
highs on Monday, when the coldest air is overhead. However, given
the bare ground, we should warm as efficiently as can be expected in
the airmass, so for the Twin Cities, this may be the only day we
stay below zero. Assuming we don`t go above zero, this will be the
first sub-zero highs we`ve seen in the metro since right before
Christmas in 2022.

When it comes to the cold weather headlines, we`ve made no changes
to those, as we will have a prolonged period where we are meeting or
exceeding Cold Weather Advisory criteria starting later today and
lasting through Tuesday morning. There will likely be brief windows
Sunday and Monday afternoon where we warm above the cold advisory
criteria, though we prefer to keep it simple with the long headlines
we currently have. With tonight`s update, we still look to largely
come up just short of Extreme Cold Warning criteria as we start to
lose the winds as the coldest of the air moves in Sunday night
through Monday night. To get more Extreme Cold Warning level
apparent temperatures, we likely will need to see temperature come
in 3 to 5 degrees cooler than what we have at the moment.

If you are hoping for snow to go with this cold, we have nothing for
you. The entire depth of the atmosphere has now cooled down to below
the DGZ, and we won`t warm back into the DGZ until late in the day
on Tuesday. When it gets this cold, you tend to see little in the
way of clouds develop due to the lack of moisture this sort of
airmass, so it is likely we`ll see much less cloud cover over the
next couple of days than what forecast soundings from the GFS & NAM
would indicate. Our best hope for precipitation comes with a couple
of clippers Wednesday and again Friday. The one Friday is favoring
to be off to the north of the MPX area, but the Wednesday clipper is
looking more encouraging for seeing some light snow Wednesday
evening, though we`ll likely be measuring snowfall in tenths of an
inch, so you can keep these snow blowers, snow mobiles, snow shoes,
and skis safely stowed away.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1101 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

A mix of upper-range MVFR and lower VFR ceilings will prevail
through much of the overnight hours, with skies then clearing
out during the day tomorrow to just passing high cirrus clouds.
There`s another likelihood of a 4-6 hour period of MVFR
ceilings late afternoon into early evening. Strong NW winds will
prevail throughout this duration, with speeds around 25G35kts
in western MN to 20G30kts in eastern MN into western WI through
the first half of Saturday before speeds diminish slightly.

KMSP...A period of MVFR ceilings is possible overnight, not
below 2000ft, but VFR ceilings are more likely. VFR conditions
will then prevail during the daylight hours but another round of
MVFR ceilings looks likely late afternoon through the evening
hours, then VFR expected Saturday night as cloud cover lessens.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SW 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight CST
     Sunday night for Douglas-Morrison-Pope-Stevens-Swift-Todd.
     Extreme Cold Warning from midnight Sunday night to noon CST
     Tuesday for Douglas-Morrison-Pope-Stevens-Swift-Todd.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST
     Tuesday for Anoka-Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-
     Chisago-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-
     Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-
     Meeker-Mille Lacs-Nicollet-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-
     Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Waseca-Washington-
     Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
WI...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST
     Tuesday for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-
     Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...JPC