Eagan, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

207
FXUS63 KMPX 072324
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
624 PM CDT Wed May 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry weather is expected until the middle of the month.

- Elevated fire weather conditions likely through next
  Wednesday with significant fire weather conditions possible
  early next week.

- Summer-like temperatures next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Wed May 7 2025

Dry and mostly sunny conditions are likely the next several days as
upper-level ridging dominates the north-central CONUS. After
yesterday`s cold front, temperatures are a bit cooler and will
remain that way through Thursday night. Highs for both today and
Thursday will range in the mid 60s to mid 70s with the warmest
values occurring in western MN. Have decreased daytime dewpoints
today and Thursday by blending in the 10th percentile of the
NBM. Dewpoints and, thus relative humidities, have
underachieved the last few days and this trend should continue
given the forecast lack of an airmass change. Lows tonight will
be in the 40s for south-central and western MN but 30s are
expected to the north and east. In fact, low 30s and frost are
possible tonight in rural areas, especially near Kanabec county
and our eastern WI counties. Thursday night`s lows will warm a
bit with near 50 forecast in western MN to near 40 in western
WI. A warming trend will start Friday as low-level thermal
ridging begins to build back into the Northern Plains through at
least early next week. Highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s are
forecast Friday and Saturday. Guidance shows a weak cold front
sagging southeast through MN/WI Friday evening, which could
spawn a a stray shower or thundershower in eastern
MN/northwestern WI near sunset. But if this activity occurs it
will be isolated and thus we only have PoPs of 15-20%.

Temperatures will only warm farther as we start next week with at
least 80s expected for the entire region through Wednesday. Western
MN will likely be the warmest with multiple days of potentially
exceeding 90. It is during this time that we have the chance at
seeing significant fire weather conditions. There is increased
concern for western MN where the drought is greatest and vegetation
green up hasn`t completely occurred. These fire weather conditions
will be created by the hot temperatures, the dry existing airmass,
and an enhanced southerly LLJ stretching from the Central to
Northern Plains. The LLJ will develop ahead of an amplified upper-
level trough arriving on the western CONUS. We will continue to
monitor the evolving conditions for Sunday, Monday, and potentially
Tuesday for potentially significant fire weather. Later adjustments
may be needed to increase highs and winds while bringing RHs
downward. Guidance does show the upper-level trough eventually
ejecting into the central CONUS sometime during the middle of next
week. Our next chance of rain should follow soon as the associated
lift and fronts follow the said trough. But, being a week away,
differences between model guidance are understandably large at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Wed May 7 2025

VFR conditions throughout. Winds will gradually take on a more
easterly direction, and eventually east/southeast on Thursday.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind SW 10kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind ESE 5-10kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind SSW at 10-20kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...PV